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Thread 719026209

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Anonymous No.719026209 >>719026473 >>719027846 >>719028235 >>719029149 >>719031050 >>719031345 >>719031559 >>719031571 >>719034120 >>719034592 >>719034650 >>719034689 >>719040398 >>719044506 >>719044643 >>719045276 >>719046958 >>719047060 >>719047326 >>719052852 >>719054063
is it true the tf2 economy is controlled and artificially inflated by the top wealthiest players, or is this simply another schizo conspiracy?
Anonymous No.719026368
thats just the nature of capitalism
Anonymous No.719026374 >>719032140 >>719032991
Remember when keys were 2.33 ref?
Anonymous No.719026375
>caring about the tf2 economy
Anonymous No.719026432
it was artificially manipulated for years and then around the time gun mettle or love and war came out, everybody who was making an actual living out of it moved to CSGO instead
all that's left are people who got to the party late and are still sharking the ignorant fresh faces and diehard nostalgiafags sitting on unusuals that haven't had their price updated in a decade
Anonymous No.719026473 >>719027675 >>719037553
>>719026209 (OP)
>Be new player
>buy one key
>trade for 51 ref
>Craft 17 hats
>You now have a bunch of cosmetics
What's the problem here?
Anonymous No.719026683
nigga just play on skial servers you can equip any cosmetic or item you want
Anonymous No.719027675
>>719026473
>every cosmetic that isn't a christmas wreath or from 2013 is 40.33 ref
Anonymous No.719027846 >>719028050 >>719031484 >>719034151 >>719040378
>>719026209 (OP)
It's true but keys have nothing to do with it. Key prices are inflated by bots who just idle farm a fuck ton of items, which means there's a ridiculous amount of refined so keys necessarily increase as a result.

The ACTUAL manipulation is not happening at these lower tiers, but at higher levels of value. Pretty much any rare item is increasing in price at an alarming rate as of recent. Unusuals, specifically older ones (pre 2015) have doubled or tripled in price on average over time. Rare stranges like the gunslinger, original, PDA, machina, or frying pan, are all ludicrously expensive now (Strange gunslinger is >$500 now).

By far the most transparent market manipulation is happening with the 2011-2013 Halloween unusuals. For whatever reason, the group of people at the top level of trading are trading these hats between themselves and driving the prices to astronomical levels. The burning team captain isn't even close to the most expensive hat now and that's saying something. Even terrible hats, if they have one of those Halloween 2013 effects, get priced at $700 MINIMUM, on average being $1500-2000 or more, with the most expensive ones breaching $30k-40k. It's patently absurd and I don't know why more people don't realize what's happening. In effect all the items previously listed are in large part just being traded between whales, who then jack up the prices massively to boost their own value. It's a horrible time to be a collector of moderate value items like stranges because those are getting booted up.

The silver lining of course is if you actually have one of these items that are getting artificially boosted in price, you make a nice profit margin. If you recall opening any aforementioned items you can probably get hundreds of dollars for them now if you don't care about the game anymore. And the silver lining with key prices is that with a single key purchase you can get every weapon in the game plus a dozen or more cosmetics and be set.
Anonymous No.719028050 >>719028405
>>719027846
when you see read this shit you realize valve made the right choice letting it die and this game and its players deserve to suffer
Anonymous No.719028235
>>719026209 (OP)
The problem is that ref is fucking worthless. No one wants ref
Anonymous No.719028405 >>719028970
>>719028050
Money corrupts everything. Even if it's monopoly money
Anonymous No.719028493
I think the worst thing Valve ever did to TF2 was introduce Unusuals. Never liked them, never had any interest in getting one. Gaudy, random particle effects that make no sense. It was easier to tolerate in the early years as they were so rare but nowadays there's at least one person in any given server looking like an idiot with one.

If they were designing the TF2 monetization these days I'd like to think they'd go a different route for the high ticket item, but people who actually buy into this shit really fall for conspicuous consumption.
Anonymous No.719028970 >>719030212
>>719028405
Cool it with the antisemitism
Anonymous No.719029149
>>719026209 (OP)
there is less than unique 20k players actively playing and trading in tf2, game is dead as fuck and economy sure is artificial nowadays
Anonymous No.719030212 >>719030351 >>719031632 >>719032467 >>719032583 >>719032758 >>719041873 >>719044068 >>719058182 >>719058486
>>719028970
you are an NPC
Anonymous No.719030351
>>719030212
Cool it with the semitism
Anonymous No.719030530 >>719030636
are those guranteed unusuals from the bug in 2018 or 19 worth something?
Anonymous No.719030636
>>719030530
Yes.
But only the first one unboxed on each account is tradeable so it barely matters.
Anonymous No.719031050
>>719026209 (OP)
TF2's economy only even exists cuz of 3rd worlders and RMT botting the shit out of it.
Anonymous No.719031345 >>719031798
>>719026209 (OP)
I am not certain, but what I do know is that the people who run the trading platforms like traders.tf have an incentive for market manipulation for a real world profit.

Some of the users do run idle bot farms that collect item drops and process it into refined, or hats. They also turn a blind eye to scams and phishing attacks because they bring items into the their trading networks. Both accelerate the depreciation of the value of refined and your hats.

Even ignoring the market manipulation, TF2's economy was doomed to depreciate with time, that is sort of a long term inevitability with a digital currency that is based on player activity, look no further than TIX on Roblox, it went from being worth around $0.001 when it was introduced in 2009/2010 to like $0.00005 when it was removed in 2017.

Some will make the argument that because the value of hats is inherently tied to the value of 2 refined, that this is inherently a good thing because it is easier to get a bunch of hats with less real world money. Although I can't completely disagree with that, I have two major criticisms. The first one is that if for some reason you decided to invest in your TF2 backpack it is likely worthless, unless you had items from 2010 to 2013, and you basically wasted your time participating in that side of the game or community if your explicit intention was not using it to merely get an item you wanted or liked. The other criticism I have is that some of these tradefags that try to manipulate the market are generally some of the most toxic and malicious people in the TF2 community and frequently harass users because they have a specific item in their steam inventory that they want, and many of these people are not above committing real life fraud or scams to get a specific item that often worth literal pennies just to further consolidate their control over a niche portion of the market to inflate their backpacks by another $100 for an item they will never sell.
Anonymous No.719031484
>>719027846
Chemistry sets should havent been retired from the drop system.
They were actually a functional resource sink but not nearly enough of them exist and now their outputs are ludicrous value items instead.
Anonymous No.719031559 >>719032384
>>719026209 (OP)
Partially. Tradefags buy up keys regularly but don't really offload anything. A few years ago about 150,000 keys came into existence but after a few weeks the price went back to what it used to be after they got circulated. The real issue is that there's no refined metal sink and no alternative high value trade items anymore (remember buds?). Even without alternative items the inflation would still happen but just to a lesser degree.
Anonymous No.719031571
>>719026209 (OP)
the truth is that if one of the mega tradelords decides to cash out it will crash the prices on everything
Anonymous No.719031632
>>719030212
>look guyz I can use a search engine to look up a common joke
Anonymous No.719031798 >>719032069 >>719037263
>>719031345
>frequently harass users because they have a specific item in their steam inventory that they want, and many of these people are not above committing real life fraud or scams to get a specific item
it's really funny when you realize the best way to know if you got a golden pan drop on mvm is by seeing if you got multiple random friend requests in quick succession, tradefags are literal jewish vultures.
Anonymous No.719032069 >>719032672
>>719031798
Genuinely how are you meant to offload a golden pan if you get one?
Anonymous No.719032140 >>719032758
>>719026374
I kept my whole wealth in refs before taking a month-long break and when I came back I realized they had introduced keys in the market place which made them tripple in price....
I lost like... 100$ dammit
Anonymous No.719032384 >>719032775 >>719032857
>>719031559
What happened to buds?
Anonymous No.719032395 >>719045418
>try to sell off my shit on marketplace (dot) tf
>sorry you can't sell your stuff here because you'll only be here once
fucking pedoniggers I just want to sell my 1 of 3 2016 halloween hat
Anonymous No.719032467 >>719032620
>>719030212
>Only one (1) person in the entire world has ever watched American Psycho
Anonymous No.719032583 >>719032620
>>719030212
fucking idiot retard motherfucker
Anonymous No.719032620 >>719032664 >>719038940
>>719032467
>>719032583
say the line bart
Anonymous No.719032664
>>719032620
it's you! you're the american psycho!
Anonymous No.719032672
>>719032069
>Sell on Steam market
>Buy some Steam VR kits/decks with your steam credit
>Sell those irl for dollars
Anonymous No.719032758 >>719034483
>>719032140
I've done some pretty stupid things in regards to TF2 economy as well.
>>719030212
Cool it with the antisemitism
Anonymous No.719032775 >>719032974
>>719032384
People realized that Bills hat, Max's head, and earbuds never actually had value and it was purely performative due to limited trade slots in the ingame trade UI. No one wants to wear monopoly money and graduated to wanting to wear fancy monopoly money with particles
Anonymous No.719032857
>>719032384
Like 10 years ago a bunch of random limited 'rare' items like buds and the Bill's Hat became able to be listed on the Steam Community Market. After that the greater TF2 community outside of traders could get their hands on them easier and they went from being like $40 to being less than $10 for the longest time. Only in the past few years have they started to climb back to their original value, but even now they're only $20.
Anonymous No.719032974 >>719033656
>>719032775
>"People" realized
Except Bill's Hat is still $10, Earbuds are still $20, and Max's Severed Head is still $75. And this doesn't include the other rarities of Bill's Hat, which are going for more than Max's Severed Head atm.
Anonymous No.719032991
>>719026374
wow the value of the thing you can make with nothing but time in game dropped in comparison to the thing that costs real money? that's fucking wild bro
Anonymous No.719033656
>>719032974
For a few years they did dip real low in price. Like the buds were less than $10 from 2015-2021 and lost almost 3/4's of their value within 6 months when they got listed. Similar stuff happened to the other items. They're more pricey nowadays, but they're still way, way cheaper than they were back then. Even Max's Severed Head is $70 from the original $100-$110 it went for.
Anonymous No.719033869 >>719034657
Before any of you ever actually played tf2 the ONE singular guy running the old spread sheet successfully inflated the price of keys 3x for no reason under the vague accusation of botting (which if you know anything about TF2 from back then, such an accusation would be so cartoonishly retarded it makes the accusation of botting for items these days seem almost reasonable) and that keys should TOTALLY BE MORE VALUABLE because of shitty Halloween Unusuals.
Keys have extremely low value these days as the associated items they're used for, Mann Co Crates, have not dropped for over a decade and have strictly worse payouts than cases.
Yes, the entire TF2 Market is rigged as fuck by a tiny group of schizos.
Anonymous No.719034120
>>719026209 (OP)
keys were less than 10 ref when i stopped playing and i already thought that was absurd. Damn how times changes
Anonymous No.719034151
>>719027846
Summed it up better than I could. It fucking sucks knowing that I will literally never be able to get my hands on some of my dream items in the game because of these fucking people. It's made all the more rage-inducing as well when you realize that these people aren't even using the items, they just keep them locked away in their inventories or a bot's inventory to rot away forever unless someone wants to shill out hundreds to thousands of dollars for them.
>Will never get a Crone's Dome or Rotation Sensation with either of the Starstorms or Knifestorm
>Will never get a Strange Gunslinger/PDA/Frying Pan or mid-high tier Australiums
>Will never get oldschool Strange cosmetics, especially End of the Line ones with the supporter tag
I could go on but y'know.
Anonymous No.719034483
>>719032758
Same, when i was a kid i got a laugh taunt drop in the first week and deleted it to make room for an achievement weapon. Havent played in a decade but i still kick myself for that
Anonymous No.719034592
>>719026209 (OP)
Wasn't USD almost 1:1 with Refined metal at one point lmfao or am I misremembering.
Anonymous No.719034650
>>719026209 (OP)
has been a thing since the spreadsheet days
Anonymous No.719034657
>>719033869
Also literally NOBODY wants to admit to this, but keys literally only had value in the first place because of the associated chance of receiving a more valuable item from a crate.
And since most people dislike current warpaints, cosmetics and unusual effects, the associated cases have even LESS value.
Anonymous No.719034689
>>719026209 (OP)
>One player trades a specific kind of low-population item to another at one price
>The next player trades that same item, or one of the other few copies of that item, referencing the price it was traded at before on public forums and setting a new premium (this isn't an observation within the broader market, rather a trade between two (2) individuals within it)
>All other market actors only have that information to go off of when evaluating the pricing of their items, and keep referencing it when listing
>This also means that friend groups can just covertly trade across one another at artificially inflated prices to bolster the consensus "market price".

This is a common pattern of modern manipulation within any collectibles market, not only TF2 items. When the elements line up for a low population, low volume trade environment, on account of inactive players, or players who don't trade, this becomes easy to do. Traditional financial analysis always takes into consideration the "volume" of any market movement, that is the amount of people actually participating at any given time, to determine the strength of that movement and how likely it is to sustain. In these low-pop collectibles markets without that information being available, and with volume realistically always being perpetually very low for specific items, that dimension of analysis is thrown out of the window.
Anonymous No.719036372 >>719036863
money money money
Anonymous No.719036863
>>719036372
jews jews jews
Anonymous No.719037263 >>719037441 >>719040142
>>719031798
I don't play TF2, what's the likelihood of getting a golden pan?
Anonymous No.719037441 >>719040142
>>719037263
It's like 0.00025% after finishing an entire MvM tour.
Anonymous No.719037553
>>719026473
Probably just cheaper to buy hats on the steam market place.
Anonymous No.719038940
>>719032620
>lets see paul allen hat
Anonymous No.719039916
>that one nigger on the workshop who made all-class versions of his hat after collecting several unusuals of it
Anonymous No.719039956
Why don't you just not buy cosmetic items
Anonymous No.719040142
>>719037263
>>719037441
Somewhere roughly around 1/750.
We don't have good data on this because the MvM community are turbo niggers and barely anyone is actually playing mvm.
Anonymous No.719040378 >>719040512
>>719027846
>Strange gunslinger is >$500 now
Hey I have that. How do I sell it for real money instead of steambux without getting scammed? Haven't looked at this game or its trading sites in at least a decade.
Anonymous No.719040398 >>719044034 >>719044875
>>719026209 (OP)
WTF HAPPENED TO MARKETPLACE SITES WHERE YOU CAN TRADE ITEMS FOR ITEMS? Literally all the usual ones only show prices in USD and you can only buy shit FOR MONEY.
Wtf?
Anonymous No.719040512
>>719040378
find someone with good reputation that will deposit the money on your paypal account in exchange or you could trade it for it's value in keys and then sell those keys for real money if you want to be safer
Anonymous No.719041873
>>719030212
Anonymous No.719044034
>>719040398
Mostly dead as the dead market desperately tries to find new bag holders.
Anonymous No.719044068
>>719030212
OY GEVALT
Anonymous No.719044365
I like those odds!
Anonymous No.719044506 >>719044605 >>719044868
>>719026209 (OP)
absolutely, the worst offender being the Burly Beast, getting its price skyrocket to one of the most expensive items in the game only because a tftuber made a video about it on how it should be more expensive bc it looks funny to him
Anonymous No.719044605
>>719044506
Oh my god yeah, I regret selling mine ages ago before the price skyrocketed since now it's just another item I'll never have.
Anonymous No.719044643 >>719044746
>>719026209 (OP)
>tf2
>economy
This has to be a third worlder. TF2 is literally a game where you shoot people.
Anonymous No.719044746 >>719046420
>>719044643
Ironically almost all the bag holders aren't third worlders, and botting the economy is basically a myth for annoying youtubers trying to make their opinions seem more widespread than they actually are.
It's all investor seeking these days.
Anonymous No.719044868
>>719044506
>ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY FUCKING KEYS ON BPTF
Genuinely fuck traders, if any of you fucking kikes are in this thread, just know I wish the absolute worst for you and your entire bloodline, niggers.
Anonymous No.719044875 >>719053474
>>719040398
trading bots killed pretty much every trading site. now everyone just goes to the bots on backpacktf to buy/sell everything because it's way faster than dealing with humans. only exception is rare items that bots don't have, and people still just do that on backpack
Anonymous No.719045206 >>719045436 >>719045880
>be me
>always liked rare shit in games
>like collecting rare stuff in tf2
>try to only collect stuff I actually use when I play, items that just rot in my backpack are usually just a waste, also generally hate unusuals
>trying to get stuff like expensive stranges, glitched items (normal/vintage quality), or just low quantity items (houwar, etc)
>started a few years ago and slowly building my collection
>get to watch in real time as a bunch of my items increased in price, houwar went to 500 keys up from 250 when I bought it, which feels nice
>feels bad that a bunch of other items will forever be out of reach due to the same price increases
>still don't have a strange gunslinger, smissmas caribou, machina, and I don't want to put more money into the game to get them
>every other item i wanted to collect so i can use it is being priced at 2x the regular price for it now
the collector's life is a tough one...
Anonymous No.719045276
>>719026209 (OP)
kinda, keys were actually propped up by weapon farming bots.
Anonymous No.719045418 >>719045558
>>719032395
i almost want to inquire but im also not interested in getting raped by modern tf2 pricing
Anonymous No.719045436
>>719045206
meanwhile me too broke to afford a strange scattergun, be happy with what you have, greedy cunt
Anonymous No.719045558 >>719045719 >>719058634
>>719045418
It would be neat to get this as cash to use for irl investments or just as backup money in case shit hits the fan
Though the hat does have some value to me, so im in no rush to sell it
Anonymous No.719045719 >>719046883
>>719045558
thats not too bad. i had an yellow belt with a whatever robo crate effect that i sold for about 60 keys years ago (it was a misc by that point but it was well before covid inflation), nowadays its over 600.
probably better off keeping shit thats sentimental.
Anonymous No.719045880
>>719045206
>collected glitched/unpopular shit for forever
>some of it exploded and some of it didnt
>but the stuff thats expensive is sentimental and i cant justify spending the inflated prices of anything that i didnt get back in the day
couldve had a unique strange homewrecker for like 20 bucks, monoculus strangifier for 2.50, strange original for 10.
but here we are. at least ive got my original strange gunslinger.
Anonymous No.719046420
>>719044746
Basically imagine mid covid crypto, but they didn't have a fuck ton of gpus to scalp to pump the economy and all they can do is impotently try to scam someone to buy some dogshit case hat with coins flying out of it that's TOTALLY worth $500
Anonymous No.719046730 >>719046891 >>719047318
Valve should cause rapid deflation by making metal actually useful
Anonymous No.719046876
It's been like that for years. There are people who have backpacks valued at over 100k
Anonymous No.719046883
>>719045719
Fair enough, it was a hat I got scammed out of when I was a kid, and when I had some disposable income that's when I bought it back from some trader. Hurt the wallet a bit but whateves
Anonymous No.719046891
>>719046730
Metal is already vastly more useful, and the relation of Metal to Key Value is completely arbitrary and unrelated to supply.
Valve could delete all metal from the game and make it uncraftable and I guarantee you trader fags would still be trying to pull the ladder up.
Anonymous No.719046958
>>719026209 (OP)
what the fuck, weren't these 2.33ref?
Anonymous No.719047060 >>719047201
>>719026209 (OP)
>Have 10 ref
>15 ref needed for key
>grind
>Have 15 ref
>20 ref needed for key
>grind
>Have 20 ref
>...
Its a scam, though I still remember the crate depression, shit was cash.
Anonymous No.719047201
>>719047060
I wish another crate depression would happen just to watch the traderfags panic again. The effects on glitched hats weren't even great but it didn't matter since it still made them panic sell and flip the fuck out, and anything to make trader lives worse is a positive in my eyes.
Anonymous No.719047318
>>719046730
ive had this idea for forever so time to share it
>Strangifier Recipe
>Strange X + 300 Refined = X Strangifier
>X can be a weapon or hat
example: Strange Scattergun + 300 Refined = Scattergun Strangifier
>why would anyone do this
Strangifying Unusuals/Vintages/Genuines/Collectors, strangifying unique weapons/hats with spells on them, strangifying craft numbers, strangifying sentimental items, etc.
>why does it need a strange item in the recipe
keeps the playerbase from making stranges that dont exist yet, valve probably wants to save that sweet strange dragons fury money for a rainy day.
>but what about current strange unusual owners
who fucking cares, nobody pays more than a few extra keys for a strange unusual vs a normal unusual.
Anonymous No.719047326
>>719026209 (OP)
shit, I remember keys being 5 ref cheaper half a year ago
Anonymous No.719048317 >>719048383 >>719048623 >>719048720
tfw no objector strangifier with a "trannies killed" strange part
Anonymous No.719048383 >>719048765
>>719048317
wait no nevermind there is a trannies killed part
>pic related
Anonymous No.719048623 >>719048765
>>719048317
unusual wearing players killed
taunting players killed
the normal kill counter
Anonymous No.719048720 >>719048765
>>719048317
uhhh dude there already is a pyros killed tracker?
Anonymous No.719048765
>>719048623
>>719048720
see >>719048383
Anonymous No.719048981
>tfw have a hat worth $500+
Summer Hat with the team color halloween spell.
I'm sure theirs no one out there willing to actually pay that much for it but its nice to have something rarer than an unusual
Anonymous No.719050495
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RsQvx1JhZ4
Anonymous No.719052852
>>719026209 (OP)
this is the case for any player economy and the reason why it should be fractured in a totally uncontrollable way
Anonymous No.719053474 >>719053919
>>719044875
but why can I not trade actual items, only buy shit for money?
Anonymous No.719053919
>>719053474
The bot thing is cope, nobody wants to trade items for items because it's all people looking for investors. Tehy don't want TF2 shit they want out.
Anonymous No.719054063 >>719054865
>>719026209 (OP)
It's controlled by Geel.
Anonymous No.719054865 >>719056697
>>719054063
Scraptf is one of the worst thing to happen to TF2 trading. That site scams you so fucking hard it's insane.
>Sell item to them
>It's re-listed by one of their bots for nearly triple the price they paid you for it
>Don't account for Killstreak Kits when you're selling, but do when you're buying
>Massively underpay you for Unusuals
>Regular scrap hats reaching upwards of 2 ref when they used to be 1.33
>Also the site is ran by bronies and trannies
Anonymous No.719054939 >>719055154
the mannconomy update has singularly ruined multiplayer games for generations and set the framework for modern F2P monetization
Anonymous No.719055154
>>719054939
Yes the mannconomy is implicitly responsible for all these entirely external problems and far worse games that don't even let you trade shit you don't like to people who may like it.
Anonymous No.719056697
>>719054865
>>Regular scrap hats reaching upwards of 2 ref when they used to be 1.33
Don't forget that they also massively hike up the prices of regular ass hats near and during October as well to fuck over anyone who wants to farm Halloween Transmutions. Can't have them getting the bird heads or other nice oldschool halloween cosmetics after all.
Anonymous No.719057434 >>719057505 >>719058960
Tradelet here, are new unusuals worth anything?
Just gave an unusual Mann of the Hour away for shits and giggles, but I'm pretty sure I'm only out like twenty bucks
Anonymous No.719057505 >>719057669
>>719057434
I mean as far as new hats go that's not terrible, what effect did it have?
Anonymous No.719057669 >>719057749
>>719057505
Overcharged IIRC, it was a pretty nice lightning effect, especially considering the monstrosities that got added
Anonymous No.719057749
>>719057669
Well its a new effect on a new hat so in the long run it won't be worth as much as if that effect was on an oldschool hat but that's still pretty damn generous of you. I'm jealous of whoever you gave it to and I barely even play the game anymore.
Anonymous No.719058182
>>719030212
this is a really funny post for multiple reasons
Anonymous No.719058486
>>719030212
cool it with the antisemitism
Anonymous No.719058634
>>719045558
i bought s steamdeck with my skin sales
Anonymous No.719058960
>>719057434
Yesn't.
People ask a LOT for them but the actual market is extremely stagnant and people aren't super interested in them.