Thread 720436451

what the jcole doin

>multiple choice exam question with three choices
>pick one at random
>scribble it out
>pick another
>i am now statistically more likely to be correct
>yfw you can cheat at life just by making fake choices
Probability quacks really believe this shit kek

Oh good. Another thread that's going to be full of people getting filtered by the Monty Hall problem. The solution is incredibly fucking simple. Instead of three doors, picture an infinite number of doors. If you switch doors, five people will die instead of just one. But if you push the goat off the bridge, it'll go back in time and kill Hitler. If the two remaining doors have a cat instead of a goat, one cat will be alive and the other cat will be dead, but you won't know which is which until you open the door. However, it's possible that the door with the car behind it doesn't actually have a car, it has a piece of cardboard in the shape of a car, and the host didn't know about it before letting you choose. One of the two goats always lies, and the other goat only ever tells the truth, but you don't know which is which. You can try asking the goats questions by slipping them notes you write in Chinese using the translation dictionary in the corner. So if you tell the host, "I don't know which door it is," the host will say, "I didn't know before, but now I know," to which you'll reply, "Actually, I know now too." All of this becomes moot if the producers of the show replace each part of the car one by one because then they won't know if it's still the same car anymore.

>>720436586
False analogy. No new information was presented in that instance, you're just making random choices.

>>720436586
>multiple choice question
>put in an answer at random
>another guy in the exam hall yells that the answer is 4 (you didn't pick 4)
>gets laughed at for being wrong
NOW you have a higher chance

>>720436451 (OP)
Oh yeah, the uh, Arsenio Hall paradox or whatever

>>720436586
>Make a choice
>Teacher comes over and scribbles one of the unselected out that he knows is wrong
>Switch answer
Fixed your shit analogy

>>720436695
I understand the maths behind it but I wouldn't switch as I know I'd be more upset over switching and being wrong than sticking to my original choice and being wrong. Goat or car, either way I'm going home with a new mode of transport.

>>720436848
It's the Monty Python problem, dumbass. Whichever door you pick has a 50% probability of John Cleese being behind it complaining about how British comedy is dead.

>>720436828
No, that's 50/50. The setup is pretty specific. The teacher would need to come over, look at your answer and then delibirately cross out one of the remaining ones.

>>720436586
>multiple choice exam question with 100 choices
>pick answer 87 at random
>Teacher looks at your paper and tells you it's either your answer or the answer 28.
>"I'm sure my random guess was right"
>Turns out it was answer 28.

i don't understand what i did wrong

>>720436891
The other has Rowan Atkinson listing random words he finds amusing.

More like
>game filters retards

>My luck stat increase when I decide to switch doors. There's no way I can lose!
>I lost

>>720436943
Nah, retards can always try again until they find the answer, or look up the solution online.

>>720436961
>increased probability means sure things

>>720437006
>my probability increases when I switch doors!
>I lost

>>720436451 (OP)
this never accounts for if you want a goat

>>720437061
Yeah, the taxes you'd have to pay on a goat are going to be far lower than the taxes on a car.

>>720436857
>teacher comes over and doesnt scribble out
>dont know if there are two correct answers or he is being a bitch

50/50

>>720436695
I know this is a joke post, but it reminds me: I have never understood the "riddle" of the two guys and the "I didn't know but you told me you don't know so now I know" thing. Is it a real riddle with a real solution, or is it a troll?

Personally I hope everyone else keeps failing at simple problems so a modicum of awareness puts me above them

Thread

>>720436695
Genuinely had a chuckle, thanks anon

>>720437049
Yes, that does happen 1/3 of the time.

>>720437049
luck is a skill

>>720437143
Name the game series

>>720437123
It's real but I have never understood it either, nor do I remember how it went.

>>720437298
Megaman

>>720437123
>If Albert saw two white hats, he would know he has a black hat. So when Albert says “I don’t know,” that means he saw at most one white hat. If Bernard then saw a white hat he would know he must have a black hat. So when Bernard says “I don’t know,” that means he saw Cheryl had a black hat.

>>720436586
The probability does increase. You can run a mathematical simulation and see that you'll have a 66% chance when you switch, making it the winning strategy.

>>720436980
Yeah, but they can never understand the Monty Hall problem even if you present them with the explanation (just read the thread).

>>720437298
>games feels incomplete if you don't play their sequels
Probably some series before my time when they could churn out each title per 6 months, but it's especially captured by certain games with DLC
>Dawn of War
>DoW: WA
>DoW: DC
>DoW: SS
Only with all of them do you get the complete game. I suppose Total Warhammer trilogy counts too.

>>720437417
Albert could have a white hat

>>720436451 (OP)
Basic arithmetic and geometry filters out 80% of all people and 95% of all amerimutts. Combinatorics exceeds that by orders of magnitude.

>>720436695
>replace good ol' 3 with some made-up gobbledeegook like troonfinity
no

>>720437549
>you can run a mathematical simulation
No you can't, because this is a philosophical probability riddle made to be discussed casually at parties. It's like "philosophical physics" or "speculative physics" - quack shit. Monty Hall has nothing to do with "maths".

>>720437770
>so obsessed with trannies, he only got up to the word "infinity" before replying to complain about them
sad.

>>720437806
>getting filtered this fucking hard by some fucking goats
That's genuinely embarrassing.

>>720437806
Anon, I promise you, just go check with a calculator, I promise you it's provable.

>>720436586
Multiple choice exams are so retarded anyway lmao, got plenty 80+% from them by just picking what sounds somewhat right or which sentence is longer/more detailed/complex

>>720437417
That's such a retarded question.
If Cheryl has a black hat noone knows shit
If Albert has a white hat noone knows shit
If all three of them have black hats noone knows shit
>Made by Presh Talwalkar
Figures.

I found it baffling that so many people I watched who played Zero Time Dilemma didn’t know what the Monty Hall Problem was or how to solve the locker choice

>>720437417
Actually, the one I was thinking about was two guys with like two dozen sluice gates. Now that I'm seeing how simple that one is, I'm starting to realize the other one may have been a troll.

>>720436695
jessy what the fuck are you talking about

>>720438104
hayai!

>>720438130
I find it baffling that someone would watch someone else play video games.

>>720437812
congrats, you are almost very close to getting the joke
sort of

>>720436451 (OP)
>game has a probability puzzle
>Player STILL doesnt understand the Monty Hall problem
>"the chance is 50/50!"

I mean, come on now >>720436586

>>720437143
6 legs

>>720438175
Before zoomers learned how to tie their shoes let's plays were more about community storytelling and would most often be a series of posts in some forum. Still some games are a pain to 100% on the hardest difficulty and are more about immersing yourself in the narrative, like metal gear solid for the psx, and so unironically are enjoyed better from an autistic veteran showing off everything

>>720436586
>school test
>1+1 = ?
>A. 2
>B. 3
>C. 4
>everyone picks A
>teacher reveals C is wrong
>everyone swaps to B
>according to "mathematicians" now 66% of the class is correct
They take you for fools

Ok but what if I want the goat

>>720438130
who the fuck is monty hall

>>720436935
if you are being serious and not joking, the logic is
>you have a 1-in-100 chance of guessing right, so 1%.
>the teacher narrows it down to 1-in-2 for you.
>you assume you have a 50/50 now
>but in reality there is a 1% chance you are right and a 99% chance you are wrong
the reason why is you made a 1-in-100 guess, 1% chance to be right. You recieved NEW information after that that removed 98 other options.
so you had a 1% chance to guess right initially, and now you are being told this other option MAY also be right, all others were definately wrong
The chance you guessed the right one is 1%, so the other one must be 99% chance of being right.

you could be right, but its unlikely.

>>720438104
HE'S TOO FAST!

>>720437417
Cheryl was looking at a mirror

>>720438327
>tranime poster is retarded
dilated all the way into your brain huh?

>>720437648
okay. And?
if he says "I dont know" then in front of him there is either 0 or 1 white hat
doesnt matter if he has one himself
if there is 0 or 1 white hat in front of him, the second guy would know if hes a black hat if the thrid guy has a white hat, for if he had a white hat too then the first guy wouldve known he had a black hat
if the third guy had a black hat, then second guy has to say "I dont know" because he could either have a white or black hat - which would promt the first guys "i dont know"

therefore 3rd guy MUST have a black hat

>>720436451 (OP)
Easily explained without any math bullshit:
Your initial choice was most likely wrong to begin with because 2 out of 3 doors lose
When the host eliminates one of the losing doors, you have a higher chance of winning when you switch because of the first point

>>720438193
Monty Hall sisters...

>>720438101
youre so retarded, you still dont get it even though it was explained to you, fucking, kek.
>If Cheryl has a black hat noone knows shit
which is why chery knows its black, since both said I dont know
>If Albert has a white hat noone knows shit
doesnt matter if albert as a white hat or not, he cant know UNLESS both bernard and cheryl had a white hat, him saying "i dont know" proves either 0 or 1 white hats are in front of him, but definately not 2
>If all three of them have black hats noone knows shit
she does have a black hat, which is why this works, doesnt matter what hats they have unless albert saw 2 white hats, cheryl MUST have a black one if the other two said "i dont know!

>>720438676
>easily explained
That doesnt explain shit. Two doors are closed so the chance is still 50/50. I have read so much about this problem and I still firmly believe this.
see >>720438193

>>720438327
But you're not guessing in this scenario, you retarded anime faggot

>>720438790
dumb nigger

>>720438839
>ad hominem
i accept your concession

>>720438790
Okay.
Answer this.
Forget anything else.
You have 3 doors in front of you.
2 lose, 1 wins.
You pick at random.
Do you have a higher chance of picking a losing door or winning door?

>>720438790
It's not 50/50.
Let me try to explain it.
Imagine you ALWAYS swap. The price is behind door A for all subsequent examples.
>A: You lose
>B: You win
>C: You win
Now let's imagine you NEVER swap
>A: You win
>B: You lose
>C: You lose.
This becomes more and more obvious as you add doors, since at that point the previously 33% chance of initially picking correctly becomes even smaller.

Fun fact, when I told my co-workers at lunch break about Monty Hall, I was shocked how every men agreed with my explanation of 1/3 and 2/3 chances while every single women insisted on 50%. Even after writing it down they insisted on 50% and some guys silently took their side too.

I don't know what to think about it.

You're not going to win anyway, game shows are a scam.

>>720436695
you didn't even add a box with a set of portals and a smasher behind the doors.

0/10

>>720438951
The men were thirsty and the women were dumb. What's there to think about?

>>720438887
I have a 2/3 chance of picking a losing door and a 1/3 chance of picking a winning door.
Now if one losing door gets eliminated from the equation, I only have 1 winning and 1 losing door left, thus making the next choice 50/50. I don't need to me le ebin mathematician to understand simple logic.

>>720438893
>imagine you always swap
>the price is behind door A
>A: you lose
?

>>720436451 (OP)
I find it hilarious that the wiki page for the Monty Hall problem is choc full of anecdotes about how people are so stupid that they didn't believe multiple explanations on how switching is advantageous, despite understanding the problem perfectly.

>>720439041
Said men are married, tho.

>>720438951
women are... le retarded

>>720439060
You are almost there
You have a 50/50 chances of winning if the host eliminates a losing door BEFORE YOU PICK
The situation is specifically THAT YOU ALREADY PICKED A DOOR and are asked if switching would increase your chances of winning, which IT WOULD precisely because you initially only had a 1/3 chance of winning. That means your INITIAL PICK is most likely wrong THE ONLY OTHER DOOR NOW AVAILABLE is more likely the winning door.

>>720439060
>?
Are you purposefully being dense?
If you pick A initially and then swap off it, then yes, you lose.
Unless you are clairvoyant, it is always beneficial to swap because (as you can see), in two out of three scenarios, swapping nets you a win.

>>720436451 (OP)
>"It's 66 percent!!!!!!"
>Choose door 3
>Goat is revealed to be in door 1
>Bring in friend who was not present for any of the decisions, doesn't even know what I picked
What chance does my friend have of picking the right door?

>>720438951
Women are a meme.

>>720436586
>multiple choice exam question with a trillion choices
>pick one at random
>teacher scribbles out 9999999998 of the other answers
>pick another
>i am now statistically more likely to be correct

>>720439117
>Said men are married, tho.
So? Married men are often thirstier than single dudes.

>>720436451 (OP)
Even if you don't get the statistics behind Monty Hall, you just need to understand that Monty Hall (the host of the show) had an incentive to give out the cars to SOME contestants, so he offered a higher chance of winning sometimes. Otherwise, no one would sign up to play on the show if no one ever wins.

>>720439284
>It fits my headcanon if I completely change the scenario!!1

>>720436935
poor probabilitycels are too dumb to understand

>>720439315
>>i am now statistically more likely to be correct
Literally yes, and if you don't get this you're a middle school dropout

>>720439151
I don't understand how the timing of the door elimination plays into this. Yes, I originally had a 1/3 chance of winning. But with the host eliminating one door, my initial choice has now been upgraded to 1/2 because there are only two doors left. Removing one door before or after my choice makes no difference to me.

Imagine if I have three hooded people lined up before me. One is a terrorist and two people are innocent. I can't see which one is which. I make the choice to shoot one of them. Before pulling the trigger, one of them gets killed by another person, they pull the hood off and it was an innocent person. Do I change my choice now? Doesn't matter, there is one innocent person and one terrorist standing before me. My chance to kill the right one is now 50/50.

>>720438247
5 vagánias

>>720439287
You know things are really bad when even Wikipedia, a site that managed to paint Pol Pot in a positive light, can't dance around the fact women fail this more frequently than men.

>>720439284
>okay what about this undecipherable schizobabble that has nothing to do with the Monty Hall problem
?

>>720436695
lmao

>>720439287
i love that this test is purely about the water physics and the exact height of the line drawn is largely irrelevant, and women still get it wrong

>>720439405
Maybe you should tell that to the other guy, bro..

>>720439319
it's moreso that we know life is easier if you just let the woman harbor her harmless misunderstandings. it's not worth the effort to correct it because, like jews, women will revert to their mistaken belief by the next day

Clockwork Orange has the ludovico thing because to a jew, changing a behaviour wouldn't require any less. that's how they see the concept of reform.

Fuck the odds, I'll keep the choice and manifest the prize with my own will like a real man.

I used to believe that people were trolling, but I know better now.

>>720439410
I honestly don't know how to explain it any clearer man
Removing an incorrect choice DOES increase your chances of repicking the correct choice literally because your initial choice was most likely wrong
You are correct in thinking you are changing a 1/3 scenario into a 1/2 scenario, but only AFTER you had locked in that 1/3 scenario.

>>720439319
They aren’t thirsty. They just know that it is in their best interest to always side with the woman especially if she is retarded.
Let me explain like this.
>two men in an office argue about the Monty Hall problem
>A proves to B that A is right and B consedes, OR A gives up and start talking about sports because B is too retarded
Versus
>A man and a woman in an office argue about the monty hall problem
>A proves that Jennifer Hayden is wrong
>Jennifer Hayden seemingly accepts defeat and walks away
>the next day A is called into HR to discuss an incidense of workplace harassment
>eventually A is forced to either sign a written confession that he harassed Jennifer Hayden, that Jennifer Hayden is right about the Monty Hall problem OR be fired on the spot
>A signs, but is still fired on the spot
>A is not only out of work but also blacklisted
>A week later A is called by the police to discuss a rape accusation
Fuck you, Jennifer Hayden!!!

>>720439284
>"2+2=4!!!"
>add 2 +2
>friend not involved with the problem until now brings 1.83 more
so do we have 4 or 5.83?

>>720439410
Just extrapolate the example into more doors and it makes sense. Assume the host isn't just eliminating one door, he's trying to eliminate every single wrong door, but can't eliminate yours because you already chose it.
>>720439315

>>720436586
>point your ass at one of 3 dildo cannons
>one of them is revealed to be loaded with a bbc round
do you switch?

>>720439151
This seems like it has more to do with psychology than math, though? Switching would only be advantageous if one assumes the host WANTS the player to win and is providing them with a hint on which door they should choose, which may or may not actually be the case in this hypothetical scenario.

I know there are a lot of retards and trolls in these threads, but for those honest few who really don't get it you need to understand a few things which aren't always explicitly spelled out in the problem.
>the host knows what's behind all the doors
>the host will always pick a goat door
>the host cannot pick the door you already picked
>the host has to open a door regardless of if you picked the car or a goat at first. He doesn't have any opportunity to deceive you

>>720439738
Who the hell is Jennifer Hayden?

>>720439284
If your friend's choice is to stay with 1 or switch to 2, then 2/3.
If your friend's choice is to pick 1 or 2, then 1/2.

>>720439767
no it has nothing to do with psychology
Like others say, expand the number of losing doors.
Let's say there are 100 doors, 99 lose, 1 wins.
You chances of picking the winning door on the first try are significantly smaller than 1 out of 3 now.
Now the host eliminates 98 of the losing doors, leaving you with your door (a 1% chance to be a winning door) and one other unrevealed door.
Should you switch your initial 1% chance choice for the door that is most likely guaranteed to be the winning door now that the other 98 losers are eliminated?

>>720439410
>Removing one door before or after my choice makes no difference
yes it does
this is extremely simple
there are only two scenarios

1/3 of initial guesses will be correct
one of the two wrong doors is removed
you switch and lose

2/3 of initial guesses will be wrong
the only other wrong door is removed
you switch and win

if you are not convinced, alter the scenario
there are now 10 doors
8 wrong doors will be removed after guessing
do you switch?

>>720439362
>>720439439
>>720439756
You know, I write that made up story almost every Monty Hall thread, be it here or /b/ or elsewhere and every single time, nobody has managed to refute it. Not you guys and not the last hundreds of other anons. I love this side stepping, I love the analogies, I love the math puddles, I really do love the little things. This brings me great joy.

>>720439937
And to add, yes, you could have miraculously picked 1 winning door out of 100, and switching will make you lose.
The possibility of losing by switching is never completely eliminated, but it is most definitely not a 50/50 chance of losing by switching.

>>720440017
(You)

>>720439937
It realistically shouldn't make a difference. The host opens all non-picked doors aside from one which is either winning (you picked a losing door initially) or losing (you picked a winning door initially)
The chance is 50/50.

>>720440017
>nobody can refute a complete non sequitir
wow

>>720440078
No, because you deliberately stopped the host from affecting your door by choosing it.

>>720440017
There is nothing to refute. It adds nothing. You're like that Indian who wanted to add AI to the mass energy equivalence. Just nonsense babble

>>720440078
Again...WHAT ARE YOU CHANCES OF PICKING CORRECTLY INITIALLY?
That's exactly why it DOES make a difference when specifically asked if SWITCHING DOORS increases your chances.
You are not being asked to pick from 2 doors, you are being ASKED TO SWITCH.

>>720440123
The host isn't affecting jack shit, he's just opening non-winning doors at random.

>>720436586
MCQs is a mental conditioning to make you choose between given choices when there are other options.

>>720439829
Just a made up person from my imagination that I’m not allowed within 500 feet of and that you definitively shouldn’t search up on google

>>720440170
He's not opening at random.
He can only open losing doors.
The only doors he cannot open are your pick and the winning door.

>>720440078
>you share oxygen with "people" this hopelessly idiotic

>>720440157
Shut up stupid bitch tits. You little mup da doop muhfuggen nigger. *shoves a cinder block uo your butt* Now poop it out, faggot.

>>720440157
Switching doesn't improve your odds. This is an absolute nonsense construction, it doesn't matter that when you initially picked that door you had a 1/3 chance if the host then replaces the denominator.

>>720436451 (OP)
I only understood this when Vsauce presented it with marbles.

I'm convinced the 50/50 retards are trolling.
There is no way you can be this dense and the solution spoonfed to you this many different ways and still don't get it.

>>720440274
I give up
are you black or what

>>720440274
What doesn't matter is me penising you in the butt, FAGGOT!!! *does so* Had enough, gay homo shit bitch? That's what I thought...

>>720440348
I really don't think they are, I used to be one of the 50/50 retards until someone explained it to me the way I'm trying to simply explain it by saying how your initial pick has a lower chance of being right.
It really clicked after that, but then again I have a normal human brain.

>>720439781
>>the host has to open a door regardless of if you picked the car or a goat at first. He doesn't have any opportunity to deceive you
The whole point is deception, though. The host will always have a goat door to open because there will always be at least one goat door, even if you picked the winning door. The point of opening a goat door is to make you second-guess your initial decision, regardless of whether or not it was correct.

>>720440430
That is the simplest way to explain it. I remember using that to explain it to some of the class retards in high school during lunch break

I fucking love the Monty Hall problem. It continues to absolutely filter every single person here, really showing off the collective room temperature IQ of this mongolian basket weaving forum.

>>720440483
Correct, and you should second guess your initial decision because it was a 1/3 chance of being right, and now that one of those losing doors has been eliminated, the only remaining door no one has picked has a higher chance of being the winner.

There is literally zero reason why, if you just chose one of three doors at random, that changing your choice after knowing you didnt pick a wrong door immediately makes it more likely your initial choice is the right one. It was 1 in 3 before, and its 1 in 2 now.

>>720440483
All he does is give you more information, regardless of whether you picked correctly or not the first time. He has no agency with which to deceive you.

>>720440208
Sorry, just did.

>Jennifer Hayden is a comix maker and graphic novelist based in New Jersey. She is the creator of The Story of My Tits, a graphic memoir...

What a weird persona.

>>720440607
It was 1/3 before, correct. However, in 2/3 initial scenarios, switching gets you the prize. Just go through every possible scenario in your head. In 2/3 scenarios (any scenario where your initial guess is NOT correct), you win when you switch. How can you not get this?

>>720440705
These people (assuming it's not trolling) genuinely believe that anything that happened before final choice doesn't matter. If you give them option to choose from 100 doors and reveal 98, they think that these 98 never existed in first place. That's what I noticed while trying to argue with them.

>>720440607
because when you pick a door you are locking it in and Monty CANNOT touch it.
He can only touch ONE OF TWO LOSING DOORS.
if you picked a loser to begin with (you don't know this, monty does) then HE HAS TO ELIMINATE THE ONLY OTHER LOSING DOOR.
since we CAN ALL AGREE YOU HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF INITIALLY PICKING A LOSER, there is a GOOD CHANCE that the only other remaining door was the winner to begin with.

>>720440790
But how would they feel if they didn't eat breakfast this morning?

>>720436586
Study Bayes' theorem

>>720440790
my god, it's the hypothetical breakfast conundrum once again revealing the browns among us

alright let's deal with this once and for all in a way you posters will understand
imagine if there were 3 buckets of tendies
i just took a massive shit in 1 of them
you're allowed to switch
do you switch?

>>720436451 (OP)
>given 2 options
>choose 1 with 1/2 probability to win
>imagine third option and make it false
>change your choice
>you now have 2/3 probability to win

CHANCE OF YOUR DOORS HAVING CAR WILL NEVER INCREASE BECAUSE IT WAS ALREADY DECIDED WHEN YOU FIRST PICKED DOOR.
If there are 100 doors and you picked a door it stays 1%, you can't increase odds post factum because your choice was determined based on those old odds. That's all there is to it

>>720436451 (OP)
>Pick 1
>Host reveals 3
>Hrm so that's a 50/50 choice between 1 and 2
>UHHHHHHH NOOOOOOOOO UHHHHHHHHH YOU GOTTA CONSIDER THE ALTERNATE REALITY WHERE HE REVEALED 2 INSTEAD
>IT SAYS SO WITH MY SIMULATOR THAT I WROTE TO CONSIDER THE ALTERNATE REALITY WHERE HE REVEALED 2 INSTEAD
Uh, no thanks, bro!

>>720439548
I would've thought way too hard about where to put the new water line to make sure it's the same amount of liquid and not even guessed it was just asking if I understood to draw a horizontal line.

>3 doors, 1 has a car and the other 2 have goats
>pick a door at random
>host says "Would you like to keep your pick, or swap and have both other doors?"
>"Also if you swap, we'll keep any goats you find."
>should you swap or stay?

This is functionally equivalent to the Monty Hall problem, maybe it will help some top-of-the-bell-curve anons to understand.

>>720439764
Honestly in this scenario I don't want the car.

>>720440832
I dont care what Monty does or can do. If he eliminates Door 2 then whether
>I picked 1 and stay
>I picked 3 and stay
>I picked 1 and switch
>I picked 3 and switch
it doesnt change that theres half a chance my Door 1 or Door 3 pick is a winner. Theres only two Doors. The prize is behind one.

>>720441064
So if you very most likely picked a losing door, and then the other 98 losing doors are gone, you would still say that the last remaining mystery door is most likely also a losing door and you would stick with your initial 1% pick?

>>720441154
Monty Hall: 2/3
Portal: The cube flings
Linux > Windows
Palestine > Israel

>>720441068
No because you picked a door and kept it from being the target of elimination

>>720441084
>Also if you swap, we'll keep any goats you find
WTF WHY
I WON THOSE FUCKING GOATS

The Monty Hall problem is solved.
Switching is the statistically correct answer.

>>720437143
Everybody here is taking 3 quite willingly

>>720441269
Oh no, don't let 50/50cels see this!

>>720441172
>You most likely picked a losing door
No i didnt. I picked one out of two potentially winning doors. Thats 50/50
Why would i change it given the prize doesnt move?

>>720441269
Monty Hall proves statistics are bullshit.

>>720441134
The prize is most likely behind a door you didn't pick because you had a 1/3 chances of picking the winner.
Now if the only other potential loser has been eliminated, would you really say that the last remaining door is most likely the other door and you most likely picked the winner on your first shot?

(You) should be able to understand this.