The Risk of Collapse in the “People-Driven Profit” Model of VTuber Agencies - /vt/ (#102061312) [Archived: 520 hours ago]

Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:05:15 AM No.102061312
1751519327663358m
1751519327663358m
md5: ff3a4090955bba87047bf127d86c6298🔍
The VTuber industry is thriving. Cover Corporation, which operates the VTuber group Hololive, recorded revenues of ¥434 billion (up 43.9% year-on-year), while ANYCOLOR Corporation, which runs the VTuber group Nijisanji, achieved ¥429 billion (up 34.0% year-on-year), both hitting record highs. Hololive is also garnering significant public attention, including appearances at the Osaka Expo.
However, beneath this surface-level success, warning signs are quietly emerging. On April 16, 2025, when Hololive English member "Gawr Gura," active in the English-speaking market, announced her graduation, Cover’s stock price plummeted 8% in a single day. This clearly reflects the market’s view that the agency’s core IP (character) is inseparable from the performer (the so-called "person inside"), meaning that a performer’s departure equates to a collapse in asset value.
Replies: >>102061332 >>102061591 >>102061601 >>102062767 >>102073508 >>102082794 >>102085549 >>102089133 >>102091276 >>102096612
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:06:04 AM No.102061332
>>102061312 (OP)
This structure is highly unstable as a business model. The once-thriving YouTuber agency UUUM collapsed under a structure overly reliant on performers’ popularity, unable to halt a chain of departures and independences, ultimately leading to delisting. Current VTuber agencies appear to be treading the same path.
As a small and medium enterprise consultant, I’d like to examine the vulnerabilities in VTuber agencies’ business models and the conditions for a sustainable VTuber agency.
Replies: >>102061359 >>102072507
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:07:06 AM No.102061359
>>102061332
VTuber’s Unique Business Model
What are the strengths of VTuber agencies, and how do they differ from YouTube agencies?
As many may know, VTubers, or Virtual YouTubers, are content creators who operate through 2D or 3D avatars, with the performer’s real appearance never shown on screen. The character’s value is created by combining the avatar’s appeal with the performer’s charm. This is what makes the VTuber business model unique.
Unlike YouTubers, whose primary revenue comes from advertising, VTubers focus on merchandise sales and events. Revenue can be generated from merchandise sales even without the performer’s active involvement. This is a key difference from YouTuber agencies and has been considered a strength in their revenue base.
In 2025, Cover’s merchandising revenue accounted for 47.3% of its total (¥205 billion), while ANYCOLOR’s commerce division made up 65% (¥278 billion), clearly showing that physical sales are central to their businesses.
The primary reason VTubers excel in merchandise sales is that their characters are designed with clear identities from the outset. At debut, a professional illustrator’s artwork (visual design) is paired with integrated elements like costumes, hairstyles, voice, personality, speech patterns, and backstory, presenting a fully formed character persona to fans from the start. This structure allows audiences to naturally accept VTubers as character-like entities, akin to those in anime or games.
As a result, fans have little psychological resistance to purchasing character merchandise like acrylic stands, badges, plushies, hoodies, or keychains. Instead, acquiring official items of their "fave" is seen as an act of support, making such items highly consumable. The otaku culture of enjoying merchandise aligns seamlessly with VTubers’ inherent design.
In contrast, YouTubers typically operate as their real selves, and merchandise tied to their real names or likenesses can create resistance or embarrassment, as it feels like "wearing someone else’s face."
Positioned between fiction and reality, VTubers are designed to capture both the emotion of liking a person and the culture of collecting characters. This structure is the primary reason merchandise sales have surpassed advertising as the core business.
Replies: >>102061498 >>102065515
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:13:11 AM No.102061498
>>102061359
VTuber Business: Still a Person-Based Model
While VTuber agencies may seem like character-driven businesses, their unique trait is that the character’s (IP’s) commercial value is generated by the performer.
The popularity of VTubers doesn't arise naturally from just their character design or backstory. The real connection with fans is built through daily livestreams, where the performers reveal their true personalities through casual conversations, reactions, and improvised interactions.
There’s no script or staging—fans and performers exchange words, share emotions, and respond to unexpected events in real-time, building a relationship on an unscripted stage.
What fans support is not just the character’s art or设定 but the performer’s humanity shining through the character. For instance, their struggles to debut, nervousness during collaborations, handling of controversies, tearful speeches, or quirky speech habits accumulate to move fans emotionally.
Evidence of this emerged in 2024, when a popular VTuber graduated from a major agency, re-debuted under a new identity, and surpassed 1 million YouTube subscribers. Despite changes in appearance and name, fans recognized the "person inside" and continued their support, quickly yielding measurable results.
In April 2025, a VTuber who garnered 110,000 subscribers before even debuting made headlines, rumored to be another graduate from a major agency.
Even if agencies hold the copyright to the character’s appearance, that alone cannot sustain value. The VTuber business thrives on the performer’s essence, making it an inherently person-dependent model with irreplaceable risks, much like UUUM.
Replies: >>102061529 >>102065515
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:14:33 AM No.102061529
>>102061498
A Triple Challenge
The most significant structural shift in the VTuber business is the established precedent that performers can remain popular even after going independent. This marks a critical turning point for the industry.
First, performers’ incentives to stay with agencies are weakening. In the past, benefits like equipment support, management, and audience-building assistance were clear advantages of agency affiliation, but many of these can now be replicated independently.
The decisive factor is the clear structure where fans are attached to the performer’s "soul." As mentioned, a popular VTuber who graduated and re-debuted under a new identity achieved 1 million subscribers in days. This shows that, without the agency’s branding or character design, performers can take their fanbase with them based on their own charisma and track record.
In such conditions—where popularity doesn’t wane, profitability increases, and freedom expands—staying with an agency loses its appeal. This mirrors UUUM’s structure, fostering a career mindset in the VTuber industry that assumes independence.
Second, revenue is heavily concentrated among a few popular VTubers. For instance, at Cover and ANYCOLOR, roughly 20% of total revenue comes from just five VTubers. This isn’t merely a concentration of popularity—it signals operational vulnerability, where the departure of these five could directly devastate company revenue.
Even with a large roster of talents, only a handful drive actual revenue. A single performer’s hiatus or graduation can impact financial reports, stock prices, and business strategies. This is a classic case of person-dependency, a state that should not exist in an IP business.
For example, IP companies like Sanrio or Pokémon never see Hello Kitty or Pikachu "graduate." Even if popular characters are absent, the company retains full control, able to revive and deploy them at will. The character’s value is independent of any person, unaffected by human circumstances—this is the greatest strength of IP.
VTubers, however, are different. Even if the character’s appearance or name remains, the value plummets without the "person inside." Major member graduations have even affected stock prices. Revenue concentration thus equates to revenue instability. A structure where a few performers dictate the company’s fate cannot support stable growth.
VTuber agencies may appear to follow an IP model, but their operational risks closely resemble those of small talent agencies.
Third, the management system itself has fundamental design flaws. Cover introduced an internal initiative called the "tea party system" to strengthen communication with performers. Under this, CEO Motoaki Tanigo personally holds regular meetings with affiliated VTubers to directly hear their concerns and opinions, earning praise from some fans for its sincere approach.
However, this system implies that management at the operational level is not functioning effectively. When the CEO must personally gather frontline feedback, it suggests that middle management—managers or team leaders—may be failing to build relationships or address issues with performers.
In a listed company, frontline issues should be escalated hierarchically and addressed through departments. Yet, a structure where the CEO resorts to "tea parties" for individual engagement raises questions about the authority of frontline managers and the coherence of decision-making, highlighting governance concerns.
In a scenario where management should mitigate the vulnerabilities of a person-dependent model, management itself is becoming person-dependent. This is a common organizational risk for fast-growing startups that scale up without establishing proper governance as a listed company.
Replies: >>102061557 >>102065515
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:15:37 AM No.102061557
>>102061529
Conditions for a Sustainable VTuber Agency
The VTuber agency business model is straightforward: number of performers × revenue per performer. This is a multiplication model reliant on headcount, where a performer’s departure directly erases revenue.
To break free from this structure, both companies are exploring different approaches.
ANYCOLOR is developing a VTuber unit system, shifting toward a model where fans support groups or projects rather than individuals. Units like "ChroNoiR" and "Luxiem" have gained popularity.
Cover is advancing its metaverse project "HoloEarth," creating a virtual space where Hololive characters can operate, aiming to build a world where the IP functions without performers. In 2024, version 1.0 was released with added marketplace features.
Ultimately, both face the same challenge: escaping the soul-dependent model.
A useful reference is the Takarazuka Revue’s structure, where fan loyalty to troupes or productions ensures enduring support despite performer turnover. The VTuber industry, too, is entering a phase where it needs a support model independent of individual personalities and an organizational design that preserves value.
Only agencies that can create a system where the brand endures, with or without performers, will survive the next decade.
Replies: >>102065515 >>102070930 >>102093686
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:17:11 AM No.102061591
>>102061312 (OP)
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/28c086c6206790ffd4e33fabb1d4cf2f8bd568b9?page=1
Replies: >>102067795
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:17:29 AM No.102061601
>>102061312 (OP)
So, who or how many do they have to lose in the EN branch for collapse and merge? And in the Jp one? The new gens have low sub count and many times the graduation of one idol doesn't transfer their core audience to the others
Replies: >>102087912
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:28:33 AM No.102061819
Didn't read. Here to just save the picture.
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 9:28:51 AM No.102062767
>>102061312 (OP)
Vtubing will disappear? Let's go!
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 9:46:15 AM No.102063107
schizophrenia thread
Replies: >>102063634
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 10:17:40 AM No.102063613
*clowns on you*_thumb.jpg
*clowns on you*_thumb.jpg
md5: 2e91b9986b3e1a2ea19512725cc6bc0c🔍
didn't read lol
Replies: >>102063658 >>102066750
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 10:19:32 AM No.102063634
>>102063107
AI schizophrenia to be more precise
Replies: >>102067795
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 10:21:06 AM No.102063658
>>102063613
i just jerked off to neuro..
stop making me want to do it again...
Replies: >>102093551
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 12:29:13 PM No.102065137
And water is wet
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 1:02:55 PM No.102065515
>>102061359
>>102061498
>>102061529
>>102061557
chatGPT-ass slop.
Replies: >>102067795
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 2:44:31 PM No.102066750
didnotread
didnotread
md5: 3e58ba218131b45343f17c2a2db0b25d🔍
>>102063613
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 3:17:38 PM No.102067273
1745612893416524
1745612893416524
md5: bd5abefba238fe9348c52289355aac64🔍
Replies: >>102073572
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 3:56:23 PM No.102067795
>>102065515
>>102063634
Its a yahoo jp article
See >>102061591
Replies: >>102068527 >>102073368 >>102101994
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 4:02:18 PM No.102067884
Just dropping by to say I didn't real all that
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 4:42:20 PM No.102068527
>>102067795
kinda a shame it was posted in such a retarded way as it's a reasonably interesting analysis - at least compared to the usual catalog drama slop. the "Conditions for a Sustainable VTuber Agency" is pretty weak though and clear the writer has only superficial knowledge / leaned on ai a lot for it
Replies: >>102072771
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 6:41:47 PM No.102070930
>>102061557
>ANYCOLOR is developing a VTuber unit system, shifting toward a model where fans support groups or projects rather than individuals. Units like "ChroNoiR" and "Luxiem" have gained popularity.
>Cover is advancing its metaverse project "HoloEarth," creating a virtual space where Hololive characters can operate, aiming to build a world where the IP functions without performers. In 2024, version 1.0 was released with added marketplace features.
Both of these initiatives already failed and this article is talking about it like it's a solution for the future
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 7:56:51 PM No.102072507
>>102061332
I unironically see V tubing going the machinima route, you know like everything on YouTube for years was all machinima. Every big content creator was signed onto them.
And it was unsustainable. I think that that's going to happen. Everybody is just going to end up being Indie in the end
Replies: >>102074131
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:09:29 PM No.102072771
>>102068527
Dumb fags here hate talking about anything negative and instantly assume everythingnis schizo jarble
Replies: >>102078560
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:36:55 PM No.102073368
>>102067795
they used AI, dummy
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:45:20 PM No.102073508
>>102061312 (OP)
Vtuber corporations will always fail eventually because they end up following the same growth-only path of all publicly traded companies. They sacrifice sustainable profit and proven, good ideas for the sake of growth at any cost, usually driven by arrogant self-interested management and short-sighted investors.
Cover caught lightning in a bottle, but they're going to kill themselves chasing after more lightning. When that happens, they'll just wind up being purchased by a conglomerate.

The current global economic model is literally designed to cultivate failure in order to collect more and more resources under the control of a smaller and smaller group of people.
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 8:48:53 PM No.102073572
>>102067273
People do that?
Sounds jeety.
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 9:18:36 PM No.102074131
>>102072507
retarded take, not everyone is joining hololive, like with Machinima. They have way more benefits than drawbacks, and some people are more prone to endure those drawbacks, some aren't.
Replies: >>102074309
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 9:25:59 PM No.102074309
>>102074131
No. You're right, but what has happened is that many people join, get a big audience and then realize that they don't need a company to hold them back.
It's kind of like PewDiePie and machinima. After he blew up, what could machinima do for him? Nothing.
Anycolor and Hololive are both losing talents left and right because people are having a hard time justifying giving away half their money to a corporation that does very little for them.
Replies: >>102074489 >>102076665
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 9:33:59 PM No.102074489
>>102074309
yeah, sure. Two more weeks.
Anonymous
7/8/2025, 11:04:03 PM No.102076665
>>102074309
>people are having a hard time justifying giving away half their money to a corporation that does very little for them
People like that one indie vtuber that keeps getting scammed should probably consider it. If the vtuber is smart and businesses savvy they could do it themselves, but most people who become vtubers are not.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 12:28:13 AM No.102078560
>>102072771
It could have been presented a LOT more clearly
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 3:04:12 AM No.102082794
>>102061312 (OP)
>The VTuber industry is thriving.
Are you?
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 4:36:20 AM No.102085549
>>102061312 (OP)
When a handful of talents make 20% of the revenue, Cover should let them cook. Losing their IP is worse than any brand risk, forgetting that they were the ones who made them successful.
Replies: >>102087735
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 5:50:55 AM No.102087705
from what i'm seeing at the replies on this thread. we're only disagreeing at the article because it's implying Cover is under threat of a collapse, and we don't want that to happen because we worship this company.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 5:51:56 AM No.102087735
>>102085549
Fauna and Gura is nothing without Cover's blue dorito badge, chud. :)
Replies: >>102088456
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 5:53:53 AM No.102087787
this shit thread still alive? lmao /vt/ aka. anti central is so dead
Replies: >>102090580
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 5:57:48 AM No.102087912
>>102061601
>The new gens have low sub count
I honestly don't know much of the newer JP Hololive. I know Vivi, but non of her genmates. Clippers aren't even popping up on my heavily vtuber algorithm driven youtube feed. Shareholders are always going to ruin companies for short term gains. Im glad some of the EN girls could walk away from it and still have success as an indie. Coco saw it early on but i didn't understand it back then.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 6:14:44 AM No.102088456
>>102087735
Their IP is dead because they opted out of affiliation. What did Cover do to them to deprive them of that and pass on the easy money?

They must feel great, no longer paying for a bloated, inept bureaucracy, getting little in return.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 6:35:55 AM No.102089133
>>102061312 (OP)
>On April 16, 2025, when Hololive English member "Gawr Gura," active in the English-speaking market, announced her graduation
Didn't she graduate somewhere around 2023?
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 6:40:14 AM No.102089255
>shitskins need AI to continue licking the boot
Grim
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 6:42:27 AM No.102089323
The model means nothing if the person behind it is gone. That's all this really equates to and it's not wrong. Hololive sets itself apart with a side focus on idol activities but the core is still the streams for fans. They've done a pretty good job in Japan of getting brand racognition and loyalty, but in the Western world loyalty to the brand can be fickle and asking mostly tech-savvy people who are watching to suckle on the teet of Cover/Hololuve as a whole is a hard thing to do. Most people don't care about the idol agency mentality and will easily skip and pass on things that don't have a talent they like, meaning less sales for tickets and merch if the wrong talent is picked to be the face of a project. It also means that EN has a much higher chance of failure at a much quicker rate because people will just stop watching fully if thsir favorites go away.
You could swe it with the back to back graduations, the general total decline for the western fanbase, and the crazy amounts of unease during those announcements. Cover has to be very careful if it wants to keep having a decent presence in the western sphere.
Replies: >>102089522
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 6:49:01 AM No.102089522
>>102089323
Didn't help having all four Americans graduate (who don't want to turn JP). Leaving no alternatives.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 7:30:23 AM No.102090580
>>102087787
yeah i really don't like when a thread is indirectly ahitting on Cover. it hurts to see.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 8:03:18 AM No.102091276
>>102061312 (OP)
Saba's loli cunny
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 9:09:46 AM No.102092328
The Western market won't decline but is moving toward an era of indie vtuber.
Cover is unwilling to invest more in HoloEN, only wanting talents to go to Japan, and will ultimately fail like Nijisanji EN.
Replies: >>102093526
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 9:30:23 AM No.102092613
A new business model gets a temporary boost from its novelty and when that wears off, the companies involved that are straightjacketed into an infinite growth forever model by shareholders spiral downwards as they slash costs to try to prop up falling profits, inevitably sabotaging future profits. The core business is still profitable, just not as profitable as it was, so it is seen as a failure. After a few high-profile flame-outs, the industry is left to smaller, usually privately-held corporations. A few peaceful years of modest growth pass, and then the industry is re-evaluated and re-colonized by spin-off departments of major corporations. It's a dynamic that has played out dozens of times.

Hololive and/or Nijisanji are going to very loudly crash and burn, everyone's going to call it the death knell of vtubing, then vtubing will continue on anyway. A few years later, there's going to be a Sony or Microsoft or Disney or whateverthefuck entry into vtubing that is going to succeed enough to bring in everyone else, and they're going to bulldoze whoever was flourishing in the vacuum and turn everything to shit.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 10:31:28 AM No.102093526
>>102092328
if Saba really goes all in, we could see her potentially steal sponsors from Cover. hell, Taiwan is already courting her and we might even see Saba getting sponsored by Taiwanese companies. she's a real threat to Cover's international expansion.
Replies: >>102093617 >>102097796
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 10:33:32 AM No.102093551
>>102063658
it's ok to admite your gay and you jerk it off to vedal anon
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 10:38:54 AM No.102093617
>>102093526
>Tecmo follows Saba
Cover rushes and announces perms to beat her.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 10:45:49 AM No.102093686
>>102061557
>Only agencies that can create a system where the brand endures, with or without performers, will survive the next decade.
I'm not in it for the brand, I'm on it for the person, and I guess corpos gone indie like Saba are the demonstration the brand is immaterial to this
Replies: >>102094677
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 12:21:42 PM No.102094677
>>102093686
I mean Cover is openly trying to make it about the brand and not about the person behind the character. They've talked about it during those Q&A's, yet we still have yet to see a real implimentation of it for people who are gone. It's the number one 'challenge' they have and they know it.
Replies: >>102095315
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 1:10:34 PM No.102095315
>>102094677
that's almost impossible to pull off unless you totally change the whole vtubing culture itself. vtubing has always put the talents first before the character that's why there was just so much backlash towards Kizuna Ai's clone stunt. if Cover wants fans to just care about their IP, they should condition the entire fanbase into becoming corpokeks, but yeah it's not going to happen.
Replies: >>102096582
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 2:21:12 PM No.102096582
>>102095315
The fact that Gura stayed on the map despite not streaming for years tells us how important it is to have a good character with a great and memorable design. There is a reason why she made Saba so Gura coded, she knew that people wanted Gura 2.0.
You even have channels like FuwaMoco where the success has more to do with the characters and gimmick than the performers themselves.
Replies: >>102097714 >>102097924
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 2:23:48 PM No.102096612
>>102061312 (OP)
shit prompt bozo
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 3:34:14 PM No.102097714
>>102096582
i dunno if Fuwamoco would work with someone else behind the characters. the reason why it's just possible is because they are unironic twins who cannot be seperated forever. if you give Fuwamoco to two unrelated girls, the infighting would make them graduate faster than Sana.
Replies: >>102100956
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 3:40:53 PM No.102097796
>>102093526
Indies and corpos arent competing against each other for sponsorship. It’s Indies versus Indies and corps versus corps. for a sponsor it’s actually a good idea to have a mix of Corpo in Indie to back
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 3:51:17 PM No.102097924
>>102096582
I believe that's only half true. The made her new model so similar to Gura because 1: she enjoys loli character and has always presented herself as one and 2: Gura's personality and talent is what made her so popular. The start of her holo career was literal lightning in a bottle. She was funny, she was witty, she was ridiculously good at certain games and she bounced off her genmates to absolute perfection. I know a lot of people would like to think that Gura's popularity comes from gimmicks and lolicon, but it really isn't the case. She is one of those one in a million kind of person.
Replies: >>102099591 >>102101722
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 5:22:52 PM No.102099591
>>102097924
>Gura's personality and talent is what made her so popular.
Maybe that was enough at the time of Myth, the competition just wasn't there. No matter if she streamed rarely, put less energy in her streams, and no matter that there is now plenty of alternatives, the Myth era allowed her to become too big to fail.
Replies: >>102101722
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 6:30:27 PM No.102100956
>>102097714
At least the infighting would provide entertainment. I would take that over teletubby noises.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 7:08:41 PM No.102101722
So in the end, it boiled down to scouting, talent retention, cultivating new talents, and fanbase sustainability, no?
>>102097924
>>102099591
I get what you mean but I really want like to see what Saba would end up for at least a year before make any assumption. It's interesting to see how far she will fare without the advantage of corpo behind her and the big first mover in the west like she had when she debuted as Gura
Replies: >>102103606 >>102103741
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 7:20:56 PM No.102101994
>>102067795
>Yahoo jp
So an AI generated article.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 8:32:37 PM No.102103606
>>102101722
vtubing is a very talent-critical industry so you have to treat them like literal queens just to retain them.
Anonymous
7/9/2025, 8:39:18 PM No.102103741
>>102101722
>cultivating new talents
This is how it works for idols, you keep the fans and replace the talent. Vtubers don't work that way, the talent has way more longevity. You want to keep them around for as long as possible and not annoy them since they hold all the cards.