>>41018923
>but still basically zero let's be honest
It's zero, you don't know it's zero.
It's as if I bring a deck of cards, I shuffle it, and then I leave it on the table, and I make you name a card.
And you say, "queen of spades", then I bet you the top card is the queen of spades.
What's the chance you accept the bet? Specifically, you'd add the chance that it's a trick and I'd somehow make appear at the top the card you were going to name.
Well, you turn up the card, it's the 7 of diamonds.
I make you flip the the 7 of diamonds. Wait what?
You grab the deck, and it's all 7 of diamonds, no other card. It'd have been amazing if that's the card you picked, alas, you'd have won the bet.
The chance of there being a queen of spades was 0, that you ignored it doesn't increase the chances, the "better than 0" chances come from picking the card that was on the top (the 7 of diamonds) but once you picked the queen of spades, the chances became 0, no matter what you knew.
That's the chances being confused here, the ones that we're about to have an extraterrestrial carrier ship parked in our neighborhood are zero.
