Thread 106509944

Junior roles down 23%.
Senior roles up 14%.

Harvard tracked 285,000 firms. The math is brutal:

Before AI: 1 senior + 3 juniors = 4 person team
After AI: 1 senior + Claude = same output

We're creating a generation of experts with no apprentices. Masters with no students. Mentors with no one to mentor.

Who trains the next generation when AI does all the junior work?

But here's what made my stomach drop:

It's not layoffs.
It's worse.
They're just... not replacing people who leave.

"Natural attrition" they call it.
"Right-sizing" they say.
What they mean: Your career ladder lost its bottom rungs.

5 years from now, we'll wonder why we have no senior engineers.

>The math is brutal:
>what made my stomach drop:

this post reads like a LinkedIn post

what the fuck

>>106509944 (OP)
>AI
It's the rate you idiot.

I've been praying for death for like a decade now regardless

>>106509944 (OP)
lol
at this rate there is going to be an insane level of demand for devs in a few years
>juniors assfucked by "AI" meme, will quit the industry
>nobody wants to go to college
>companies accruing massive technical debt with dumb AI initiatives, and firing everyone
>no juniors = no new seniors
>seniors will quit, especially as they get richer and richer

this dude literally crossposted from /pol/ LOL

>>106509944 (OP)
Using your graph, one could just as easily say that AI is creating jobs for seniors

learn to underwater weld or ice road truck

>>106510244
It's this, the wheel is turning once again. All these companies are at peak tech hype retardation and outsourcing before the consequences appear in 5-10 years, if anything NOW is a reasonable time to start if you're thinking in that direction and are like 18 considering majors.

been real shit for like five years post covid though lol

>>106509944 (OP)
Your graph proves it has nothing to do with AI and everything to do with companies not being caught training juniors because they're shit at retention.

>>106510460
>because they're shit at retention
Pay a good salary and do decent raises, schlomo, and they won't be.

>>106509956
>this post reads like a LinkedIn post
So it's safe to assume OP is AI-slop.

>>106510460
>because they're shit at retention
Isn't that mostly due to the "If you want a raise, change your job"-mentality?

enjoy flipping fries

>>106510244
just hold on 5 more years bros lmaooo

>>106510476
>Pay a good salary and do decent raises
nigger, that's exactly the problem

i'll literally work for free just to get my foot in the door, but nooooo that's not allowed, you gotta paaaayyy a good salary for the privilege of training some clueless cunt like me who will just fuck off as soon as they collect their 1-2 years of experience

>>106509944 (OP)
Wasn't it just some grant that ran out

>>106510244
good old pork cycle

>>106509944 (OP)
So all seniors are juniors now, and those juniors are paid too much

majority of /g/ was unemployable well before AI

>>106511085
rude!

good. less diversity hires, tiktok product manager sluts and jeets.

Complex systems will not survive the competency crisis.

>>106509944 (OP)
>The math is brutal:
>But here's what made my stomach drop:
>they call it.
You sound like a redditor. I don't care about your cute little interpretation, link the study or GTFO.

>>106510244
>nobody wants to go to college
don't forget there is literally 50 million indians ready to immigrate every year

>>106510504
It is and companies are fucking retards for doing it.

>>106509944 (OP)
>Blue collar workers during the 1980-1990s
First time, white-collar kiddo?

I wonder if, in the near future, there will be entire consultancies and programming specialties centered on unfucking AI code.

>>106511467
This lmao
There is very little to make me feel bad about a sect of the population that glided through life and did everything they where told without question.
Now they are 100k+ in debt and nothing to show for it.

>>106511314
trve
I guess we're gonna find out whether indians can actually do the same thing white men do

>>106509944 (OP)
what's the relevance to /g/? this is an unemployable permaNEET website

>>106510244
What's funny is you think this demand will ever be met. It's brain drain, it hit the arts 50 years ago. It used to be that every art school turned out excellent draftsmen, and they all had jobs drawing shit. Then computers replaced them in most firms, and eventually replaced animators. Now, the field no longer exists. If you wanted to get an animation made in western country, you couldn't, you had to outsource to Japan in the 90s, Korea in the 00s, China in the 10s, and now India in the 20s. And we're hitting the breaking point of that cheap dogshit labor, after India there's nowhere left to cut the costs.

>>106510256
it happens all the time

>>106511934
hmm so what happens after that?

>>106512103
Huh? Societal collapse. We've been in the early stages of it for the past 20 years.

>>106512142
>just two more weeks bro

What the fuck am I reading

>>106509944 (OP)
I can’t find a new job despite 12 years experience though?

>>106512103
it becomes a very small or non-existent industry until demand for high quality animation picks up again (possibly never)

>>106512150
No, the world is definitely gonna collapse. It's not anon wishing for a cataclysm to wipe the slate clean because he is a loser.

>>106511934
i bless the rains down in aaaaafricaaaaaaaaa

>>106511143
Based and palladium pilled

>>106512253
>roody-poos can produce anything more than war, famine, rape and kids

All jobs except for tradesmen jobs are gonna get fucked, even service jobs like flipping burgers and fries in McDonalds are gonna get done by robots, they in fact already exist. Next decade everyone is fucked unless the entire system changes, not just economical ones, but educational ones too.

>>106509944 (OP)
Doesn't this just mean that "juniors" are being reclassified as "seniors"? It's not like all these extra people are just magically appearing out of thin air.

>>106511934
>It's brain drain, it hit the arts 50 years ago.
That's not the reason. I went to school for animation in the 2000s and there were plenty of capable animators, but no jobs for them. The studios just didn't want to pay American wages when some east asian could do it for 1/10th the price. I even knew a guy who literally moved from America to the Philippines just so he could work as an animator on American cartoons. The same exact shit is happening to software development right now. The best programmers are Americans but all the jobs are in third world countries.

Bot thread. Everyone on /g/ is either already a senior engineer or a completely unemployable neet anyway.

>>106512361
I don't get it.

>>106509944 (OP)
Harvard can't tell a man from a woman.

>>106510244
Ramielfag is right once again.

>>106512150
I wish I could disagree with him, but the death marks can't really be discussed away anymore.
Western society is a rotting corpse that has been "living" by digesting itself for roundabout 20 years.
Considering this, I'm not too optimistic about our ability to stand Xi's and Putin's challenge to the West. They are out of their fucking minds, but they still manage to point out how the West is insane itself.
I'm not ruling out a resurrection, but the Western establishment is fighting it with all it has: The spoils gained from the corpse are probably just too tasty.

I am convinced that we live in a post work society and that AI has already automated everything.
Corona proved that the world can run without us working or even going outside.
We are not needed.
Labor is no longer needed.
IQ differences are meaningless, junior and senior roles are meaningless. Society doesn't need any of us. Only grocery store workers are needed.

>>106513119
Reports of the West's fall are greatly exaggerated. Every generation wants to think they're the most important and the future hinges on them, and the average 4channer/redditor is no different, but in retrospect that rarely turns out to be the case. You have to correct for that. To take your example of Putin and Xi: are they actually good rulers? I've been hearing these comparisons for years now; what have Putin and Xi done in that time? Xi has profoundly hurt his country's economy with draconian COVID restrictions that he maintained far longer than it made sense. Putin is sending his country's young men to their deaths just to fulfill his megalomaniac dreams of rebuilding the Russian Empire - something that wouldn't actually improve the Russian people's standard of living even if it was successful, which it won't be.
I think it's important to separate aesthetics from results. Liberal democracy has very poor aesthetics; it always appears weak due to all the internal conflict that it allows to exist in the open. On the other hand, authoritarian regimes are great at projecting an image of strength and unity, even when internally that couldn't be further from accurate. But when it comes to results, advocates of liberal democracy can point to a large number of examples to make their point, while advocates of authoritarianism have one (1) example where authoritarian government worked better than liberal democracy could have plausibly worked.
Don't get me wrong, I think that China will become the #1 superpower of the 21st century, but that's despite their governance rather than because of it. They simply have more people that the US and EU combined, and a higher average IQ too.

>>106510244
You mean "Massive outsourcing" when they all flee to China, who keeps these companies under lock and key so they can't repeat the same jewish cash grab there

>>106510256
>Oh no, a 4chan user on 4chan.
Please, go back to r/tech, nufaggot.

>>106515090
All the societal boons you're crediting to muh lolberal democracy were the result of a large, stable, wealthy-enough, fertile-enough White middle class. No such class will exist after boomers are all dead. Demographics are destiny and any White guy in America in the 2030s with half a brain will realize staying in the majority-brown Jewnited States is a retarded idea. The damage that will be caused by infestation of pajeets in our biggest, most profitable companies and by extension our most essential infrastructure cannot be overstated.

>>106510256
Holy shit, that is fucking embarrassing. Why do I even read this site?

>>106510256
>>106515507
forgot pic, reminded me of that video where the Spy leaks the nudes of him fucking scout's mother. Just totally damning.

>>106510244
And that insane level of demand will be filled with millions of Indians. Western countries don't want anyone other than the top 0.001% to have income.

>>106515090
>are they actually good rulers?
I have already answered that question: "They are out of their fucking minds, but they still manage to point out how the West is insane itself."
They aren't good rulers, but they realize where our rulers are fucking up. It's clear as day, which makes it so fucking irritating, that the rulers of the West keep alienating their people day after day.

>Liberal democracy
Are we that? I have been getting the impression, that the established party's politicians think, that "Our democracy is in danger" when the people start voting for someone else, because "our democrats" have been betraying them.
Also, I'd interpret "liberal" as in "tolerant towards other political views", but especially the people calling themselves "liberals" these days would prefer to eliminate anyone thinking different.

>China will become the #1 superpower of the 21st century
I'm not too sure about that, but it's true the West has completely lost its edge, because it demands equal results irrespective of effort and natural ability and calls anything else "discrimination".
Well, guess what will happen to the West, if it doesn't start discriminating in favor of sheer capability and effort: It is going to die miserably in a swamp of utter sub-mediocrity.

>>106511562
I don't think there will be mainly because that would be a difficult problem to measure.
If we could measure fuckedness the west wouldn't be paying for Jeet code.

>>106512142
>not many people doing [job] will lead to society crumbling
lol @ this retard

>>106515303
>any White guy in America in the 2030s with half a brain will realize staying in the majority-brown Jewnited States is a retarded idea.
And where is your mythical white ethno-state, retard? They are all cucked, pro-brown/black shitholes now. Russia is mass importing jeets and Central Asians. Even Iceland, a literal frozen island in the North Atlantic and the true last bastion of whiteness is a feminist shithole that wants brown/black migrants for "muh anti-racism". There is no where to fucking go for whites!

u witepeepo need to get a grip and stop acting like wimmin

>>106516161
You make some good points. I'm also sick of woke attitudes that are illiberal and blatantly anti-meritocratic. However, I think that woke DEI stuff is best modeled as a tax on efficiency and innovation. That's not good, but it's a tax that the West can afford to pay, and it's fundamentally less damaging than authoritarian control of markets, which screws up all the incentives - instead of competence, the strongest incentive becomes sucking up to the Party. I think that Richard Hanania has the right estimation of the sitaution: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/why-the-technocapital-machine-is

>>106510540
Who's gonna be buying burgers when everybody's unemployed

>>106516424
Yes, actually. When there aren't any good prospects for young men societies tend to suddenly have a lot of terrorists on their hands. Blue collar goes to illegals, white collar to Indians, what's left for American men? Violence.

>>106515507
ok so how does that affect the post's factual information?

>>106516161
>Also, I'd interpret "liberal" as in "tolerant towards other political views", but especially the people calling themselves "liberals" these days would prefer to eliminate anyone thinking different.
The absolute undiluted retardation on display on this website astounds me.

>>106510256
>it's real
Brutal.

i dont understand how many people here can correctly identify this for what it is including the paths it will take and the solutions/lack thereof but don't apply them. it's like you guys just feel hopeless instead of capitalizing on this info. i value you posters, just saying. but i only wish u valued yourselves.

>>106516981
>ok so how does that affect the post's factual information?
it's /pol/ so it's biased, chud

>>106509944 (OP)
>After AI: 1 senior + Claude = same output
Next year it'll be:
>After AI: 1 Businessman + Claude = an entire company
Face it. Skilled labor is a dead end. Learn Business if you don't want to die in a ditch.

>>106510256
The feeling I get from seeing this must be identical to whatever feeling the presence of a black or jew elicits from a /pol/cel. A strangely smug form of disgust and pity for my lessers.

>>106517297
I what way is it biased? Are you just a memebrained retard?

>>106517288
Gotta have something to fight for that's bigger than yourself, bro.

>>106517391
>Gotta have something to fight for that's bigger than yourself, bro.
lol no you don't, especially when, for most people, that's whatever fox news/cnn/tiktok/facebook tells them to fight for

I opt out of this notion

>>106512632
don't forget the senior engineer level unemployable neets (PhD)

>>106516903
The question is not "woke DEI" or "authoritarian control of markets".
"Woke DEI" IS "authoritarian control of markets", exactly the opposite of "liberalism".
Your reply sounds a lot like it came from a language model (and on reflection, your original reply as well).

>>106517032
I KNOW "liberals" don't interpret it that way, which is a major reason why people are fed up with the absolute fuckery "liberals" have been pulling off.

>>106515303
>any White guy in America in the 2030s with half a brain will realize staying in the majority-brown Jewnited States is a retarded idea.
>>106516548
>They are all cucked, pro-brown/black shitholes now.
exactly. where are we going?
I've been chilling in SEA but that's just for affordability and peacefulness. little opportunity. It was only a temporary solution because I was able to work the USA system for $300k/yr remote the entire time lol, but that's still USA economic ecosystem.

I'm 32, have $1.6M + USA and EU citizenship. just want to buy into a worthwhile area on Earth and build from there. my default will be returning to white USA. There's at least a great stock market for now.

Never been to Europe. I just have the citizenship.

>>106516943
American men are just joining ICE.

>>106510167
People really don’t understand how predictable these cycles are.
>tech requires a fuck ton of capital, always
>low rates result in expansion and thus, hiring
>companies compete viciously during this boom
>rising salaries mean inflation
>inflation means rising interest rates
>oh no Mr Goldbergstein, it’s getting expensive to borrow, we need to save money!
>i know, let’s try (off shoring, AI)
>hey this is great we’re saving money!
>unemployment goes up, inflation falls, interest rates start to fall
>uhh Mr Goldbergstein, people hate our customer service and our product is riddled with bugs
>well let’s hire back some people on shore
>cycle begins anew

>>106511562
It’s already a saturated market. A friend and I have looked into it.

>>106516924
Me, the humble neet with my neetbux.

>>106510256
>>oh no people crosspost
first day on the site huh?

>>106515090
btw if Trump renaming Ministry of Defense to Ministry of War, him threatening denmark to take Greenland, deploying troops to Venezuela etc etc doesn't give you a hint of any kind of last ditch effort to save the empire then you're vastly mistaken

>>106510451
NOW is always the time to start something you have a legitimate interest in. If you're only doing it for the money, the time to start is never.

>>106511075
>price begins to decrease
bullshit
once inflated, prices never ever go back down

>>106521863
>NOW is always the time to start something you have a legitimate interest in. If you're only doing it for the money, the time to start is never.
what's with the black and white thinking?
it's not necessarily "only for money" or "pure legitimate interest". Childhood should be about discovering the spectrum of interest/viability combinations you have.

Making enough money is important, but not the most important thing. it's just also not the least important factor either.

I'm in healthcare and they can't hire fast enough. They want to replace us with immigrants but that's not possible unless the immigrants are able to prove their nation's educational standards match our, their residency training matches our, and pass our board exams.
Most 3rd worlder's have to go through dental school all over again and then do residency too.

>>106523154
>I'm in healthcare and they can't hire fast enough.
let's say I have
>$1.6M
>10yr tech career
>top US university degree in CS, but just a 3.022 GPA. 3.2 if I count some other university courses I took elsewhere
>130IQ
>laid off and sick of tech due to low respect even if high pay

Would grinding to a full MD be worthile or nust go be a (nurse practitioner) nursefag?

>>106509944 (OP)
>log size

>>106523154
The bottleneck is residency positions that's why they can't replace anyone. The medical board keeps residency positions low to prevent people from becoming licensed doctors to keep pay high.

>>106523380
They both take 8 years total. And those grades are really bad. Even if you do well with the premed courses, they count all other previous courses too.
>>106523488
What??? How many doctors give up their time making money with patients to go train a resident for much lower pay? It's a service of stewardship, not some kind of conspiracy. And when you finally get your license you're grinding for at least a decade to pay off the loans and buy a house.

>>106523996
People can't get residency positions anywhere in most western countries all because the number is kept low artificially. This is even more serious for third worlders who come to the west. That's why they go to west virginia and other places nobody wants to live.
White americans should be taking up residency in west virginia, alabama and colorado but they don't, instead they move to San Francisco and New York to live with non-white people so all the indians fresh off the boat have to go to white states for crumbs of a residency.

>>106523996
>And those grades are really bad
ya I got brutalized by some of the toughest systems courses in the country lol. that's why I'm a millionaire engineer and not a medfag. before the CS major, I was an A/B student. became a B/C one. straight As in public HS (shows potential but not counted I know)

I'd have to repair GPA, especially as a white male.

Anyways, might make more sense for me to just coast in easier jobs rather than do a shit ton of retraining just to start after the peak boomer die off. idk what the medical industry will look like after boomers lose their power

>>106509944 (OP)
Oh Harvard confirmed it huh? Thank god Harvard confirmed it. Nothing is real until Harvard confirms it. I LOVE HARVARD

>>106509944 (OP)
>Who trains the next generation when AI does all the junior work?

Everybody can train themselves, just join an open source project.
Do some stuff for them for some years. After some years you can call yourself a senior dev.

>>106511075
> Piggeries

>>106523397
Go away styx

>>106509944 (OP)
I am not saying AI is having no impact. What I am saying is that the desicions made by companies and institutions that are downsizing or reducing because of AI were doing that same thing prior but with significantly less intensity. Slopification doesn't feel like AI's fault as much as the most strwight line companies are choosing to take. I understand how it sounds
>guns don't kill people, people just use guns to do it. You can kill with other methods, but this just the simplist and most streamlined
But I draw this line because I do apprecaite the technology of AI a lot. There is so much good it does and I would hate for us to lose that through legislation or social stigma. Honestly you can bully Microsoft and Google to get that shit out of here, that's fine. It appears academia and big tech have thrown the baby out with the bath water and will recieve their comeuppance sometime in the future, but what that will do is affect costs being altered for us consumers just like tarrifs, the GPU market fuckery, bird flus killing chickens and everything else.

>>106524129
This is probably the right path. We are lost because the role of solid interns and journeymen and interns mean jack shit. I have interns from high schools assigned to me every year and I try to teach them the imporant parts of everything I do here, but I just don't see people treating their interns like that. My coworker, a carpenter, will also be easy to give coaching and teach his underlings, but these seems to be our choices rather than the focus of having the intern. I get that Im working for a buisness but damn they really throw these kids to the wolves, if I were an even lazier man who didn't care at all these guys wouldn't learn a single thing.

I like how they simply can't be honest and say "our new engineering dynamic is a legion of 'junior level' Indian shartware developers being supervised by the white American senior plantation overseers."

>>106510256
>/pol/troons repost their garbage from their home board to every other board on the site
You don't say.

Also this is just conveniently blaming aislop for something that's been a problem ever since the majority of hiring went to outsourcing.