Thread 17921158

Israel falling would be a monumental event on par with Constantinople 1453, but it would be very hard to do:
>1)You would need to mobilize 23 million troops minimum.
Israel (if it has too) can mobilize & equip as many troops as the Wehrmacht had in 1941 (7.5 mil) in a matter of weeks (given the sheer number of military veterans, willingness to use females/old people). Using standard military logic for the attack (3 to 1) an invader would need 23 million, and that assumes you're using 1st world quality troops (so triple that if it's 3rd world troops).
>2)Israel could draw the war out for 10 years
Israel has enough ammunition/weapons stock piled to fight a total war for (no joke) 10 years, and getting food/oil wouldn't be hard as they would just steal it from Syria. Meaning they could turn it into a Ukraine type stalemate for a decade. Not to mention:
>3)You'd have to blockage the E. Mediterranean
Via a fleet, or missiles or subs or whatever. Otherwise some friendly nation would trickle in supplies like the EU does to Ukraine, although not decisive it would drag out the war another 5 years.
>4)Neutralizing Nukes
You would need orbital kinetic weapons to take out the nuclear proof bunkers they're stored in. These would be extremely expensive strategic weapons you could only use sparingly and would require top tier talent.
>5)You would have to build up while under attack
You'd need years to build up the forces needed, and the sheer numbers needed means you'd have to build up locally (Turkey/Caucasus/Iran area probably). Israel would figure out what's going on and pre-emptively attack, meaning you'd have to build up while under attack (similar to Soviets in 1941).
>6)You'd have to simultaneously fight off a globalist coalition
The international Jews would whip the Anglo-nations/EU into war. Given the limited industrial capacities of the west they won't be able to field more then 800,000 troops combined, that's still a pretty big chunk.
...
tldr can Israel be conquered?

>>17921158 (OP)
You can't just insert historical references to hide your obvious /pol/-thread

Oh wait the mods here are useless so of course you can

>>17921158 (OP)
>realistically
no time soon
>how/when
whenever the US/west stops supporting them, so whenever islam becomes the predominant religion in the west.

>>17921158 (OP)
>can Israel be conquered?
Yes IF:
>US stops supporting them
>The balkanize
Their internal politics are shit show that makes US politics look sane. I wouldn't be surprised if it splits into 5 tiny enclaves by 2050. After that it depends if Americans care and my guess is NO, as America b comes less Christian they stop seeing Israel as the most important thing ever. So israel probably won't last past 2100.

>>17921158 (OP)
Never, but they might end up siding with anyone who is willing to prop them up in exchange for a handle on the region.
>>17921164
America doesn't need to become Muslim. Israel approval rates are at a historical low. Young people are seething because they can't afford groceries while the kike cock slurping golems in D.C send another trillion to Israel. If they want continued support they're going to have to make some serious concessions regarding fiscal policy.

>>17921164
>whenever islam becomes the predominant religion in the west
Won't happen because outside tribal societies Islam doesn't function very well. For example the rate of atheism/agnosticism with Muslims in the west is around 20% per generation (and 50% in some Nordic countries). Now I'm NOT saying some form of individualist guilt-based "protestant" Islam (right out of the Dune books) won't form in the west, but the current Sunni/Shia models won't take over.

>>17921158 (OP)
I don't think it's do-able by military means. I can picture some kind of mass and largely non-violent resistance movement occurring in the future that results from some plot twist in Israel "winning."

Scenario: in exchange for normalization with more Arab states (Saudi Arabia in particular), they come up with some scheme to turn Gaza into an Arab protectorate / emirate, and then Israel annexes the West Bank, and over time grant the Palestinians there citizenship, but arrange the Knesset so 70% of the seats are reserved for Jews. That would be kind of like Lebanon where 50% of the seats are reserved for Christians or something like that. But the situation down at the level of the street becomes more and more Arabized until it's really no longer a Jewish majority.

It's like "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em." It's what Jews are good at doing. And then when you factor in, who's doing most of the work? I mean the building, cleaning, digging, planting, and paving (and perhaps most ominously, working as security guards at schools, malls, hotels, country clubs, sporting events, etc. etc. etc.). Right now a lot of them are Arabs. In Israel. Moving their freight, pruning their trees, collecting their trash, building their houses, producing their food, and digging their graves.

There's also a good number of Arabs who are doctors, lawyers, artists, etc. who can't change a tire to save their life. And not a few Jews who can kill you with their pinky finger (IDF commando units) and grew up milking cows. I'm just saying, the gap in the "social division of labor" has widened over the years. It comes with becoming more civilized.

>>17921158 (OP)
>>17921158 (OP)
I give it 200 years, same age as crusader states
Either Israel need to become a normal country with normal relation with their neighbours in the region or it could continue to be a foreign entity that depends on military power and foreign aid to continue its existence but that couldn't be sustainable in the long run

>>17921158 (OP)
>U'd need 500 jillion troops n fight for 100 years and use star trek weapons
Why are implying Israel can't militarily defeated? They can't even conquer Gaza an area the size of Jersey City, and now they're the wehrmacht 2.0? Go suck the Jew off somewhere else faggot.

>>17921188
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/lets-get-physical/

>>17921172
>israel approval rates are at a historical low
yes, but even politicians that are newer/younger and love palestine still support aid to israel (AOC) unless they're muslim (ilhan omar). i dont think we'll see enough truly anti-israel voters at least within my lifetime unless we import enough somalis like they did in ilhan omar's district.

>>17921185
i dont know all the demographics of muslims in the west, but even with 20% atheism rates, the kids may still hate israel significantly since it's part of their family upbringing and with how many kids first gens pop out, it'd be a lot of israel haters.

>>17921188
>By taking over from the ground up.
But that would just create a new hybrid culture like Normans in Engalnd. It wouldn't defeat the Jews so much as replace Jewish culture with some quasi hybrid Jew-Arab culture (like how post 3rd century crisis Rome turn "byzantine" by letting balkans run everything, Rome didn't turn Balkan but it wasn't old Rome either.)

>>17921158 (OP)
The same guys who still haven't destroyed Hamas, despite having total air supremacy, the entire Gaza strip under siege and tanks facing off against guys in sandals doing suicide charges to drop bundles of construction dynamite down the hatch?

The same IDF/Mossad who are le spooky all seeing omnipresent intelligence masters, who somehow failed to notice the supposed massive army of terrorists smashing down the border wall with bulldozers and zerging towards them in a straight line in pickup trucks firing AK47s out of the window and zooming around in paragliders and dirt bikes?

>>17921205
>but even with 20% atheism rates, the kids may still hate israel significantly since it's part of their family upbringing and with how many kids first gens pop out, it'd be a lot of israel haters.
They dont need that because everyone fucking hates Israel anyways. Only evangelical christians and centrist big-gov Democrats like israel. And the Jews brought this on themselves by having a "fuck everyone but us" attitude. Yes it does suck Israel got surprise attacked, and they have the right to fight back, but DECADES of not giving a shit about anyone else (I'm talking about other 1st worlders here) has caused them to be hated (stuff like constantly killing 1st world white tourist and being like "oh well lol to bad" doesn't endear them to anyone).
It's like a neighbor at the end of the block who keeps a getting robbed but is such an asshole no one feels bad.

>>17921205
Whatever the voters think, the theory that an external cause (U.S. cutting aid to Israel) is going to decide whether Israel persists or not is incorrect. It's a very common belief in pro-Palestinian discourse in the West, which I'm familiar with, and it makes sense to believe that because it's something you might be able to do something about.

But what is fundamental is internal to Israeli/Palestinian society. The U.S. has supported other regimes in the world with lots of money and military aid, and direct military intervention BTW with hundreds of thousands of ground troops in some cases, and totally failed. A lot of pro-Palestinian types don't really put themselves into the shoes of Israelis and try to think how they think. They don't care to understand them. I don't mean sympathize with them, but at least try to understand their enemy. They tend to view Israelis as ontologically evil cartoon characters. But that doesn't work very well. You have to think of your enemy as smart and there's something about supporting Israel that is very convincing to them. Not anyone here, but to them, because they're not us. They think differently.

It doesn't mean they can't be defeated, but the fact is, they still exist even after all of these wars. But people don't like to ask "what are we doing wrong." A lot of people don't like to hear that.

>>17921207
Maybe that could happen. I'm just throwing this idea out there.

>>17921199
>>17921230
Were talking about total war here. By your logic the Crips and Bloods could conquer America since American can't "defeat" them. Israel has the ability to murder everyone in Gaza and a simply limited by ROE's, while the Palestinians do not have the power to murder everyone in Israel (because they have tried and failed many many times).

>>17921158 (OP)
Israel has won every major war with its neighbors even when American help was minimal. No amount of Arab cope will change that.

>>17921230
There's not actually much fighting in Gaza. It's a ruined pile of destroyed buildings with a bunch of exhausted Israeli troops sitting on it, and a million+ Palestinians clinging to the coastline, and those soldiers rarely see a Hamas fighter except through drones deeper into the strip. Then every once in awhile, a couple of them pop out of a tunnel and drop a satchel charge down an exposed hatch, or some Israeli soldiers trip an IED inside a booby-trapped building.

Most of the time, when Hamas does pop out and try to do that, they get killed but you don't see that happen. It's only when a Hamas guy does it and survives and escapes with footage, that you see it. And that happens from time to time. At any rate, it's not clear what the "win" condition Israel, because Hamas' goal is to just survive. But it's no longer a military force that can pull off another invasion of Israel.

>>17921241
>no no bro! We haven't defeated the guys in sandals, even though we have total control over the skies and every grain of rice they consume, because..because we just don't want to ok!

>>17921247
If they're exhausted after 2 years of dropping bombs on refugee camps and hospitals how are they going to fare when fighting actual soldiers.

>>17921254
I think Arab are better at guerrilla warfare, are more willing to fight and make sacrifices in that structure than when organized in conventional armies, so I don't think the Israelis need to be worried about that.

>>17921158 (OP)
>Realistically how/when do you think Israel will fall?

Three-way civil war between

>secular Jews
>Hasidic Jews
>Muslims

>>17921205
>but even with 20% atheism rates
Wtf is this supposed to mean? There's literally no existing demographic group in America that supports Israel outside of a religious framework. Maybe a handful of people who REALLY hate Islam but never because they just personally love Israel.

>>17921158 (OP)
Israel ends the very millisecond America stops supporting it.

>>17921232
Not even young Evangelicals support Israel anymore.

>>17921158 (OP)
>23 million troops minimum
From what we've seen, their fighting methodology is to destroy the chain of command as quickly as possible and watching the force being disoriented and disintegrated.
There are advantages and disadvantages to this method, but by and large it provides immediate equality even between larger forces. as a proof of concept, the terrorist organization Hezbollah stood on the northern borders and was larger than the Israeli army in terms of manpower. as soon as its high command was destroyed, the forces completely fell apart.

>>17921158 (OP)
>tldr can Israel be conquered?
It cannot

>>17921158 (OP)
>Realistically how/when do you think Isreal will fall

Once America can not longer financially support the existence of israel, it will too collapse. That will be the jews' own doing, killing their own savior is their modus operandi.

>>17921973
Israel could potentially survive with independent industries and a coalition of small countries, and that would probably benefit them more than US hegemony

>>17921982
Isreal is like 50 miles wide and 300 miles long. Their existence as a technologically advanced military power can not be sustained with such limited geography from which to generate industrial capacity.

>>17921999
Which is why their mid range ambition is the acquisition of Ukraine, the wheat exports from which might ensure their independent existence. That is of course why Ukraine is currently being depopulated.

>>17921162
Shut the fuck up you whipped pussy whore

>>17921158 (OP)
Israel is a tiny parasitic Zionist shithole that relies on apartheid, land theft, genocide, terrorism, diplomatic immunity and the American taxpayer to even exist. It constantly attacks and bombs countries to destabilize and provoke them then has America and its vassals protect it when they retaliate. It also has America invade any country too strong for it to take on by itself. The moment America ceases to prop it up it will fall.

>>17921814
God bless the CCP
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8B1MuSD/

>>17921158 (OP)
Easy
Just wait for the boomers to die off

>>17922047
>apartheid, land theft, genocide, terrorism, diplomatic immunity and the American taxpayer
Forgot to include the endless US military aid

>>17921158 (OP)
Without US backing it won't stand for long. An economic embargo and attrition warfare will wipe it off the map.

>>17921999
the geographical factor has no bearing on this matter.

>>17922036
>Which is why their mid range ambition is the acquisition of Ukraine
Israel and Russia are not enemies. Israel (along with Cyprus) are actually hubs for sanctions-busting Russians. A lot of Russia's top oligarchs are Jews with dual Israeli citizenship.

>>17921158 (OP)
Israel cannot exist in a peaceful and stable environment because everyone would band together and get rid of them for good. So the goal of dividing and conquering everyone thus far has been successful, but because of western involvement. Israel doesn’t have the ability to do that alone however.

>>17922144
>geographical factor has no bearing
They absolutely do. The square miles of productive industrialized land is what generates the raw capacity for national self determination.

Ever if israel squeezed the most efficient processes into what land it has, that would still net a grossly inadequate overall net capacity.

>>17922156
>Israel and Russia are not enemies
I never suggested they were. It is most likely a coordinated genocide of the Ukranian population being collaboratively executed by Russia, the US and Israel.

>>17921158 (OP)
>How
One scenario that could be possible would be that secular and hasidic jews "split" and enter a political gridlock where one is unable to move without the other but both are unwilling to do so. This is somewhat probable given their parlemientary situation.
Then, if the local palestinians and arabs manage to form some resistance, and if the international scene (the west and arab world) stops supporting them, possibly by sanctions, Israel would be essentially stuck in a situation where its economy is fucked, and where it finds itself unable to progress.
Only then could an army realistically dissolve their state. Otherwise, Israel will continue to exist with different borders.
Another scenario could be that Iran somehow smuggles nukes into one of their proxies, who uses it to nuke Israel. Mutual destruction occurs and the UN steps in to create some form of dual state like in Bosnia.

>when
Hard to say. I'd argue that as long as israelis retain their feeling of persecution and paranoia towards the outside world, they'll manage to live on and find cohesion. As long as they find cohesion, some form of will will emerge and direct their ressources towards their survival. Imo, only mutual destruction or a complete disintegration of the country internally could make them "disappear" geographically.