/sci/ crossposter here, I found this paper which tries to simulate a war between Russia and Nato.
According to this model Nato would need around to send around 20 additional brigades to help the Polish army repelling a Russian invasion.

https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2025.2523031

>>63950978 (OP)
It's all about ramping the need for 5% GDP military spending dumbass. This exists so that politicians can point to it for justification.

It's a mathematical model that comes to the inevitable conclusion that assuming near-identical technology then Russians would win due to their larger numbers. Fairly pointless paper (which explains why practically nobody has read it). Are you the author OP?

>>63950978 (OP)
>can Russia achieve a rapid breakthrough in Central Europe?
Russia demonstrably can't achieve a glacial breakthrough in Eastern Europe

>>63951068
>due to their larger numbers
EU population 450 million
US population 340 million
Russia population 143 million (almost certainly wildly overstated, more like 120 million)

The paper assumes that 120k combat troops (a force equivalent to the troop buildup for the 2022 invasion) secretly assemble at the Polish border and attack in a flat featureless 2D space and then uses a 3rd party computer program for the results. It looks like a Master's thesis level of work designed to show the authors are able to do numerical analysis, which they seem to be able to do.
You'll notice it bears no relation to the real world where the professional Russian army is fully engaged in Ukraine, and the pre-invasion buildup was meticulously documented for months. Also, lmao at the assumption that Russia still has a functional airforce.

>>63950978 (OP)
>Nato would need around to send around 20 additional brigades to help the Polish army repelling a Russian invasion
Why would the Poles all die laughing or something?

>>63951085
>what if we dumb everything down to a numbers game
actually retarded paper

>>63950978 (OP)
>if key European states are slow or unwilling to act
If?
The past 3,5 years really told us nothing?

>>63951085
>a flat featureless 2D space
But most of Poland is a flat and featureless 2D space...

>>63950987
>based on 2015 prices
>in July 2023
>figures represent estimates
Tell me that you made it the fuck up without telling me you made it the fuck up.

>>63951141
Well there are some rivers.

>>63951165
Nigga I just used google.

it all depends on how much of the population actively resists when it comes to invasions (not the current active military), and if they have the means to fight.

some countries, russia could walk right into and say it's theirs after a short conventional fight. others would be closer to ukraine.

>>63951169
We need to make policy recommendations on the simplified assumption that a surprise army of sixty thousand bathtub dirtbikes would cross those at lightspeed and that rivers are thus an imaginary obstacle.

>>63951085
>IF WE DISREGARD EVERY ADVANTAGE POLAND AND ITS EUROPEAN ALLIES HAVE, THEN RUSSIA WILL WIN
what a shit paper

>>63951139
Invasion of Poland is such a fucking transgression that Germany and France will not tolerate it. In any case of invasion of Poland, the Nordics and Balts are 100% involved in to war too.

>>63951177
>bathtub dirtbike rivercroosing obstacle run
That sounds more like some Red Bull sponsored event than a military operation, but we are in the clown timeline and there is a nonzero chance that the ziggers will actually try it.
Fuck man, I want off this ride.

>>63951172
parroting made-up bullshit implies you fell for it

>>63951203
>some Red Bull sponsored event
Idea: VDV drop but instead of simple parachutes they use wingsuits and glide straight to Warsaw.
Or better yet, Berlin!

>>63951185
I have more doubts about Germans than the French or Brits, tho.
Nords and Balts I agree on.

That being said, could a faint invasion of Poland, to divert from just flooding the Baltics, work out at all (not necessarily in this exact reality of depleted, NorK and Laos aided, Ruskie forces)?

>>63951240
Scholz would've called for a diplomatic solution, but thank god that retard is gone now.
Also I don't think that a faint against NATO countries is possible, I'd expect western spy satellites to screen potential enemies 24/7

>>63951240
>could a faint invasion of Poland, to divert from just flooding the Baltics, work out at all
It'd just aggravate Euros more since there's less chance of just ignoring the conflict while mooching about peace like they did in Georgia and 2014 Ukraine.

The more it looks like russia is doing a full scale war and the more parties are involved the harder it is for fat Euro government kikes to ignore it.

Although even a token force of Americans in the Baltics makes invasion unpalatable for russia unless they somehow manage to subjugate them without harming them to hand over to US, assuming an amicable government in there like the current admin. Given russian track record with hostages this is not happening and getting US servicemen killed would make even the most brainrotted bootlicker call for a response reaction, dragging US directly into the war and likely outright booting any russian forces out of the country. Unless they beg trump to extract us personnel out of there beforehand it's not happening and then Euros are likely to step up and take a more solid position which would deter russia almost as well.

>>63951271
russia preys on uncertainty and indecisiveness so a coherent, unified pushback is almost always effective.

Here's a good read on the topic if you have time to spare
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what-deters-russia

>>63951240
You're dumb if you think that Germany will jeopardize its project with the EU in any case of invasion of the Baltics and/or Poland. Use your fucking brain for fucks sake. Poland is the nect country over from Germany and is a major economic hub for German corporations. Do you seriously think that their political class will allow ziggers just ruin their ambitions?

>>63951306
Yep, those gazprom seats aren't worth losing Poland for. Before the war Baltics might've been a different story though.

>>63951085
>just disregard every advantage NATO has held for the past 40 years
>20 brigades are needed to hold off 24
this is beyond retarded

>>63951276
and I'd add that Chatham House is way more authoritative on this subject than Kofron and Stauber from Charles University of Prague

>>63951313
The old peaceniks and GDR-raised politicians are out, nobody in Germany likes Russia.
Well, the fiifth columnists in AfD and BSW are bought by Moscow, of course. They took their 30 in silver, but they will hang like the traitors they are when the time comes.

>>63951344
Does Germany have any other conservative parties or movements to do any pushback against all the Frankfurt school shit though? Because as long as this continues unaddressed such populism will remain an effective attack vector for foreign adversaries like russia in the future.

>>63951375
their only answer is to take police measures against the AfD while doubling down on the import of brownoids

>>63951085
So it's useless? Cool

>>63950978 (OP)
>/sci/
Schizophrenics aren’t allowed to own firearms.

>>63951085
what the fuck did this guy mean "not consider the impact of the Air Force"?

>>63951428
>if we go back to pre-flight WW1 battlefield conditions, we need pre-flight WW1 force ratios
truly stunning conclusions

>>63951428
Land war, no planes allowed.

>>63951085
>Assume for the purposes of the test that gravity is 9.81, air resistance is negligible and that russia is a superpower

I doubt NATO will actually send anyone if russia wins in Ukraine and attacks Poland or Baltic states. There will be a lot of "talks", "promises", everyone will agree that something needs to be done, but no brigades will be sent. That's just the modern reality. US doesn't want to be the world's police anymore, and without it it's not like NATO is any different from countless treaties that are only good in peacetime.

>>63951375
The short answer is 'no but it's complicated', and the problem is not something 'the left' did. It is homegrown in the center-right's near two decade long refusal to treat Russian agression and reactionary imperialism as a direct attack on German and European interests.

The fact that Scholz ended up actually DOING something, despite his party being full of aging peaceniks who learned to suck Moscow's dick in the early 80s is absolutely remarkable, and he had the fucking Green Party in his coalition who were fantasizing about feminist policy and I don't know what kind of bullshit at first but actually pushed for helping Ukraine.
The somewhat right-leaning neocons/liberals imploded due to incommpetence, the far lleft is a barely relevant fringe party.

There are vague remnants of the neo-Marxism in SPD, Greens and even CDU, though. They effectively self-sabotage with pointless philosophical discussions instead of facing the problems, and refuse to talk abouut inconvenient truths.
At the same time, in the same parties, you have people who face reality and push for realpolitik decisioin making. I only hope they will keep doing this in the face of Chinese and Russian agression, and de facto treachery and sabotage from the US.
The only way forward is a stronger Europe that does no longer rely on the US for anything. And that includes defeating Russia in Ukraine.
Eh. Thanks for coming to my TED talk, I guess.

>>63951459
The american defence minister is a war hawk lmao

>>63950978 (OP)
Is this the same simulation russians used to think they'd need 3 days to win against ukies?

>>63951459
>bait or brown, call it
Whereas in reality its ziggers telling armenians, malians and assad to get fucked when they need rescuing.

>>63950978 (OP)
If you were really from /sci/ you would have simply laughed at the retarded methodology >>63951085 and called it a day

>>63951127
>what if we dumb everything down to a numbers game
This is unironically the soviet approach. Since stalin didn't like to deal with "human factor" (a promising general yesterday become a vile traitor today and gets killed, so needs to be easily replaceable), the focus on viewing military and warfare as a science with numbers.
Literally everything is done via numbers, they tell you how much pidors you need, how many tanks, depending on the geographical locations, army size, the size of the front lines and so on and so forth. That's the main thing the russian higher officers study in military academies. Same with RU logistics and such. They don't ask what the soldiers need, they instead look up what they need via those guidebooks and send that.

>>63951473
Hegseth? He's just pants on head retarded, really

>>63951175
>it all depends on how much of the population actively resists
And the state apparatus as well

>>63951203
Nah, that's just media campaign for the new Mad Max going a bit overboard

>>63951473
He's a traitor alcoholic jarhead bullshitter from TV, who leaks military shit in consumer grade IM apps

>>63951497
>leaks
I am suspicious how real that leak really was because of all the comments that read like they were meant for outside audience

>>63951488
Unironically what is wrong with that approach if your units are happy to be fungible&disposable?
The only issue seems to be inflexibility (it takes time to update the guidebooks to incorporate new challenges) but this can be simply be offset with some multipliers.
And the shitfest of the last three years can be explained by the lack of resources & the chain of vranyo. Guess those have to be taken into account in the next edition of the guidebook.

>>63950978 (OP)
>>63951085

>>63951678
Forget pic

>>63951582
Essentially it is an algorithm that has no self reflection and or self awareness, this kind of shit only works if you have a way larger amount of soldiers and material (to lose). It is only practicable for dictator shitholes were loyality is the only redeeming measure for those in power.

>>63951508
>all the comments that read like they were meant for outside audience
Sometimes a retard is in fact a retard, you just choose to not believe it because the thought that such people are in control of things is scary for you

>>63951582
>what is wrong with that approach if your units are happy to be fungible&disposable?
You can't narrow down the complexity of life to a set of bureaucratic rules and trying to do so just fucks up the bureaucratic system more and more with each iteration of it hitting the limits of what was covered before. Simple as.

>>63951085
>Assume the combat happens on flat featureless terrain and 1800s line infantry tactics
The niggers that wrote this should kill themselves, gaijin entertainment tier delusion

>>63951488
That's exactly how logistics (and everything war) works though. You're describing the push v pull paradigm. Pushing is how everybody does it, and the "Pull" is just there to adjust for casualties, surprises and the fog of war etc. Now I know what you're going to claim next, you're going to say Russia doesn't do the Pull part and that's what you really meant. Yeah cool story bro, we know if that's what you actually meant there's no way you would had written it like that.

>>63951185
I would assume that Balts and Nordics would be stuck defending their own borders in that scenario.
Worst case scenario is it'd be like Ukraine - Ziggers won't pull out even if they have to send twenty million troops to die, while NATO states that don't border Russia will help at first, but then decide that spending 0.1% of their GDP is an unacceptable investment and will pull out after public outrage over two soldiers becoming wounded while defending a foreign country.

>>63951085
They ran it on Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator, didn't they?

>>63953252
Ok pidor

>In this manner the Russian army has among its officers the very best and the very worst men, only that the former are present in an infinitesimally small proportion. What the Russian government thinks of its officers it has plainly and unmistakably shown in its own tactical regulations. These regulations do not merely prescribe a general mode of placing a brigade, division, or army-corps in action, a so-called “normal disposition,” which the commander is expected to vary according to the ground and other circumstances, but they prescribe different normal dispositions for all the different cases possible, leaving the general no choice whatever, and tying him down in a manner which, as much as possible, takes all responsibility from his shoulders. An army-corps, for instance, can be arranged, in battle, in five different ways, according to the regulations; and, at the Alma, the Russians were actually arrayed according to one of them-the third disposition-and, of course, they were beaten. This mania of prescribing abstract rules for all possible cases, leaves so little liberty of action to the commander, and even forbids him to use advantages of ground to such an extent, that a Prussian general in criticising it says:
>“Such a system of regulations can he tolerated in an army, only, the majority of whose generals are so imbecile, that the government cannot safely intrust them with an unconditional command, or leave them to their own judgment.”

>>63953433
Fuck.

>>63953507
>“Such a system of regulations can he tolerated in an army, only, the majority of whose generals are so imbecile, that the government cannot safely intrust them with an unconditional command, or leave them to their own judgment.”
... it's just like how the Freemasons made up a bunch of bullshit about the Tarot and magic and it distracted Crowley from getting into places he shouldn't be allowed!

>>63953423
This is concern trolling
>I would assume that Balts and Nordics would be stuck defending their own borders in that scenario
Yes you would assume so because that helps your narrative. Russia absolutely cannot attack on a continent-wide front, you fucking retard. They would need over a million men + equipment for them only for Finnish front if they want to have any chance of success there, then they'd need functional Baltic navy to overcome Swedish advantage in the Baltic Sea, and then they'd need over a million more troops for Poland. Russia is hopelessly outgunned and outskilled in Eastern Europe, it's not even a fucking contest.

And your concern trolling about Western Europe pulling support: Who the fuck do you think conceived the EU? Do you think they'll just end their most successful economic and geopolitical project for some gay gas deals and Gazprom shares? Fuck you, you fucking retarded faggot.

>>63951240
At this point I've got far less faith in the frogs then Germans, for what it's worth they're genuinely coupling themselves to Lithuania, as well as properly rearming.

>>63955001
This is not even accounting for Norwegian and Danish flotilla and airwings, nor is the fact that Great Britain, which conceived JEF for this fucking purpose, would also be engaged with its navy and air force at the very minimum. Russia is so fucked in Eastern Europe, the North Sea and European Arctic.

>>63955014
>>63955001
>European NATO needs to only raise its eyebrow and Russia will understand
but unironically

>>63955017
no matter how much you screech about eyebrows noone will ever take russian army seriously

no one will help them rebuild it either.

>>63951076
Due to their larger number of SOLDIERS, not population

>>63955006
the frogs have more actual combat experience than the krauts

the Germans are "rearming" in the sense of making a lot of announcements of stuff that pushes up MIC stocks but not (yet) fixing the fundamental issues with their army, i.e. its tiny size and combat readiness issues
I'll believe the Germans are serious when they expand the army to at least 90,000 regulars

>Lithuania
the French have a battlegroup in Romania

>>63953433
>>63954967
https://youtu.be/lrzKT-dFUjE

>>63955056
The EU and the US each separately have more military personnel than Russia. NATO outnumbers Russia about 2.33:1 in manpower. The USSR/Warsaw Pact had the advantage of numbers, but Russia isn't the Soviet Union. They are inferior both qualitatively and quantitatively.

>>63951240
I just don't think Russia has what it takes to fuck with Poland in this day and age

>>63951582
It's not optimised for complexity and modern war is an ever more complex thing

>>63950978 (OP)
>According to this model Nato would need around to send around 20 additional brigades to help the Polish army repelling a Russian invasion.
Does this paper assume an alternate universe where Ukraine surrendered in 3 days, so the 200k original troops that took part in the invasion are still alive and unharmed and so are the other 800k military-aged Russians?

>>63951085
LMAO

>>63951085
I hope that someone paid the authors a lot of money, because if I were to write something like this for free I'd kill myself

>>63951085
>>63955477
"publish rubbish or perish"

I note that this paper was submitted in January 2025 and contains references to November 2024 sources. my guess is that the authors threw something simplistic together to fulfill job quotas. it's a thing academics have to do to please the university.

>>63951073
Their sustained performance is laughable but they did achieve several breakthroughs and "occupied" large swathes of Ukraine at the start

>>63951085
>3rd party computer program
Sounds fun, what game? Warno or something?

>>63953433
No, they likely used something more sophisticated like Totally Accurate Battle Simulator.

>>63955017
it's the part of European doctrine Rrump is trying to ape right now, the "strongly worded letter"

>>63955093
Kinda this. Germans promised Ukrainians their new 155mm spgs 3 years ago and as far as i know it didn't enter production yet. I'll belive when i see.

>>63951459
That NATO wouldn't defend the Baltics and Poland is just wishful thinking of filthy vatniks high on Krokodil. And what America says and what America does are two different worlds, just ask Iran.

>>63951459
>I doubt NATO will actually send anyone if russia wins in Ukraine and attacks Poland or Baltic states. There will be a lot of "talks", "promises", everyone will agree that something needs to be done, but no brigades will be sent.

If you genuinely believe this you're full-blown pants on head retarded.
The entire point of NATO is deterrence. If someone were to attack a NATO country and the rest of the members would just go "eh, not worth going to war over that shithole", the whole premise of NATO instantly falls apart.
You can't *not* respond to an open aggression against a member state if you want the alliance to keep existing at all.

>>63955734
NTA but Orange Retard has really shit the bed on NATO. I as an American honestly think he'd let them take over the balts.

>>63955746
1) European NATO is easily capable of pushing 2025 Russia's shit in, especially if they overextended themselves like this
2) it would make Trump look extremely cucked after years of (delusional) posturing as someone whose relationship with Putin is that of mutual respect and understanding, his egocentric ass couldn't take that
3) dumping NATO on the eve of an attempted pivot to China is too retarded even for him
I don't even like the guy because I think he's genuinely fucking stupid and getting worse by the day due to old age, but you seem to have a minor case of TDS.

Fucking please, I desperately want..no,.I NEED Russia to fuck around and find out what it's like to get utterly gangbanged in 48 hours by 1700 European fighters and bombers. I need this before I die, please Russia. Do it. Do it! I need to see Finns capturing st pidorsburg, and a glorious second sunrise over Moscow.

>>63950978 (OP)
Why does NATO so desperately want Russia to invade them? Is this all about giving more money to the European MIC?

>>63955734
UK would get involved no matter what. Nothing could stop those anglo demons ripping Russia a new asshole. They will never forget or forgive Russians doing a chemical weapons attack on their soil.

>>63955868
Holden Bloodfeast: Europoor edition
(me too)

>>63955873
Its like being in a school or workplace, or just a normal day to day environment where there is some obnoxious, weak little cunt talking shit constantly but you are hamstrung by the rule of law and can't respond without looking like the aggressor. All bets are off if the pathetic little rat hits you first though. Then you have licence to beat him within an inch of his life.

>>63955868
Welcome back Holden Bloodfeast

>>63951452
kek

>>63955880
>>63955882
it's his yourapoor cousin Halten sangucztować
from the whole continent SS veterans union, respected EU parliament member for the socialists

>>63955868
based

>>63951459
GOOD MORNING SAAAR!!!!

>>63950978 (OP)
Niggers

>>63955881
More fantasy nonsense. Touch grass.

>>63951459
There are American, British and French units there already. Unless Russia has 5,000 S400's ready to deploy in the Baltic's to form a impenetrable AD bubble, then the air force will just bomb shit. Which is why the paper ignores it entirely.

>>63953433
Nope. They ran it on modded HoI IV. It mentions brigades. So they just did a full planning attack on Poland targeting Warsaw on the borders then worked out how many NATO brigades were needed to slow the advance until it stops.

>>63951085
>we assume the Russian Army is spherical and is in a vacuum

>>63951240
The EU has a more stringent mutual defense clause than NATO does
>7. If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.
>an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power
Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union.

>point this out online
>retard American says it's a great paper and stuff
>he even says that it 'shows how good your ground forces and doctrine are'
>I point out that the paper assumes that all ground forces and doctrine are identical and Russia wins just because more
>paper even assumes conscript brigades of Russian are equal to professional brigades
>paper literally ends with 'need to do a deeper paper lol'.

LMAO
>It is important to note that our analysis is based on a specific formal model. While we believe this model provides a solid starting point for similar analyses, it has limitations. Future research should explore other methodologies. Classical wargaming, for example, presents a promising avenue, although it is more time-consuming and would require more narrowly defined parameters. Alternatively, simulations using specially designed military software could be considered, even though these would not be accessible to the broader public. Given the importance of this issue for European security, we hope that a broader debate, incorporating various models and approaches, will emerge.
tl;dr
>Our paper is nonsense bullshit and could be summed up as 'more beats fewer' but don't worry we did it so better papers could be written!
Lmaaaaoooooooo

>>63955868
10000 hours in paint

>>63951085
>assumes russia has element of surprise
>excludes defensive geographical advantages
>disregard inferiority of russia equipment
>we do not consider the impact of the air force
>we do not consider the impact of the air force
>we do not consider the impact of the air force
>we do not consider the impact of the air force

>>63956036

Thanks to Trump, Europe will end up in 2032 with a budget more or less meeting the 5% figure, and then what? Our budget will be larger than the US military budget, but we don't want to have wars or muh global presence. I get the need to keep the US into NATO and agreeing to something, but this is just irresponsible, pointless, spending.

>>63951141
I thought poland was a ball??

>>63956117
>and then what
Germany gets to rule Europe with the United European Army like it has wanted for decades. It also makes Russia behave. Had Russia risked NATO response it could have steamrolled the Baltics. Instead it tried to do le epic HoI tier annexation of Ukraine. Putin doesn't think NATO is worth the paper it is written on and had he achieved his goal with Ukraine (annexation, sorry, 'Triple Union') then he would have moved onto Georgia, annexed that and then either forced Armenia and Azerbaijan to rejoin under the argument of 'peaceful co-operation' or would have bumrushed the Baltics and had they retained their military strength by the war in Ukraine being over in 3 days like planned they could easily have steamrolled the Baltics before NATO managed to do anything. Then set up thousands of S300/S400 bubbles and made the cost of getting the Baltics back 'so high' that NATO just wags its finger at Russia and just lets it happen. Then you could see a situation where Turkey abandons NATO to join Russia and we're now in a shitty situation.

Just like they're letting Russia beat Ukraine because nobody wants to support them.

>>63956128
A flat circle.

>>63956036
>>63956066
lmao

>>63956147
>

>>63951203
Bathtub dirtbikes are already a thing lol.

>>63951085
they did not even mention radar/air defenses, just assume those do not exist at all kek

>>63956655
>Already a thing
That was a thing a year or so ago, i haven't seen any in awhile so they might be extinct or nearly so.

>>63951085
>>63955516
>the simulation program

>>63956776
WWWAAAAAAAGGGGGHHHHHHH

>>63956776
me on the left

>>63951582
>I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -Charles Babbage, about people like you
This response became legendary in computer science illustrating garbage in, garbage out; but your reaction is doubly absurd in the case of war, where to paraphrase Clausewitz, friction is real.

>>63955978
Yeah, anything other than an immediate and violent response would lead to the collapse of the EU. And even if the US chickens out there's still UK, Canada and turkey.

>>63956776
>American tanks defend against a desperate Volkssturm counterattack; 1945, colorized

>>63955946
Like 4chan, Russian media is not some secret club.
We can see them constantly circlejerking about invading Europe and we see in Ukraine how different the reality is from their fantasies.