Thread 63953731

How are the sahel junta states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) losing to literal rag tag durka durkas despite having far more troops, tanks, etc and vatnik support?

>Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger have combined forces of 45,000 - 60,000 operating under a single sahel alliance/confederation
>2000 vatnik mercs. granted vatniks are incompetent at war but still
>support from Russia, China, Turkey, etc
>access to drones, tanks, IFVs, etc

Meanwhile JNIM only has around 6000 fighters at most and ISGS has only 2000-3000 fighters. Yet they are still winning and beat the junta states. Hell, its gotten so bad that Burkina Faso only controls half of its own territory. What explains this failure?

>>63953731 (OP)
Morale and organization

>>63953731 (OP)
idk but some of the groups claim to revert the disasters of urbanization (like a cool Ted K but fighting against something which was enforced in places). and also jihadi Islam (aka regular, non-rich ppl Islam kek) offers you the right to steal women and take them as your wives and in a society with polygamy there are far too many losers that appeals too

>>63953731 (OP)
Decades of massive corruption and hollowing out of actual force during a time of peace and getting fat on resource extraction and scamming others in a world where they didn't fear any real external threat, and engaging in tons of chest beating propaganda crap instead of any real effort. No real national feeling, no strong civic institutions (public and private) to correct errors. Result is bad morale, massive divergence in real capabilities vs paper capabilities, and general abysmal performance the instant anyone mildly capable turns up and points out the emperor has no clothes.

We'll see plenty more such cases that will regularly be a total surprise to the West which somehow still cannot comprehend potemkin countries that lie about everything.

>>63953731 (OP)
>Expel competent military
>Replace it with Russian military
>"Why are we failing?"

Islam is corruption and facilitates corruption. Just like being a military dictator, Mullah Bob has a huge dick and rewards his underlings sho appoint their nephews who have gang rape parties for Allah in thanks. Because they are after all warriors chopping off people's heads.
This is why africa is going to hate islam forever when they wake the fuck up.

>>63953731 (OP)
The hajjis out there have had 15+ years experience picking off French and American SF. Wagner is peanuts by comparison.
>>63953802
If you ever have a Christian sub-saharan African coworker, you'll know the hate runs deep.

>>63953731 (OP)
>vatnik support
Largely a non-factor at this point.

>>63953802
What weapons will be used during the Great AfroCrusade of the 2?100s

>>63953731 (OP)
african """armies""" exists solely to beat down civilians for protection money, they are not meant to fight against anything that can fight back

>>63953731 (OP)
The French left.

>>63953731 (OP)
Sahelian warfare is all about rapid mobility. I'm not saying anything groundbreaking but everyone I've read who seems to know anything about the Sahel always talks about that. Probably important.

>>63953784
To add to this, there's the official economy and the real econony. These governments get most of their revenue from exporting resources, which is the official economy, but as a result they don't feel themselves accountable to the population, which is involved in the real economy of hawking whatever crap they have on hand, and what they can get and then resell from international aid organizations. There' no social contract or "general interest" (if you want to get French with it).

It's a structurally autistic way of governing. One-way. You gotta listen to the big boss. And they only have one way of dealing with the jihadists, which is to intensify the military and paramilitary violence, which in turn leads to an intensification of tactical and terrorist violence by the jihadists. The jihadists also have time on their side BTW because they can kill both soldiers and civilians, while the juntas mostly kill civilians.

It's like trying to put out a fire with just shovels, while forgetting fire extinguishers and fire hoses, so you end up spreading the fire. Then a squad of jihadists occupy the main aiport, massacre dozens of soldiers, and then trying to figure out how to prevent that from happening again, the population minimizes the event and lynches a few members of an ethnic community they don't like in the street. It's real bad out there.

>>63953731 (OP)
I can't answer your question, but what I do know is that the retards at the WSJ behind an article on Burkina Faso's new dictator for life know even less.
>shit-talk French deployment and how it only got the yearly casualties inflicted by militants to ~3000
>hail Colonel Ngubu as the second coming of Che Guevara
>but concede that the militants have inflicted something like 10,000 deaths a year since the coup
I swear there's an entrance exam to become a journalist, except instead of having a minimum score you must beat, there's a maximum you can't exceed. No wonder everyone listens to podcasts of TikTok these days.

>>63953927
Newspaper journalists tend to write in complex layers of "yes, but" as a way to cover their ass far in advance of when events suddenly go in the opposite direction of the trend they're repoting on otherwise the editors won't publish their stories.

>Col. Ngubu is the talk of TikTok... and everyone's talking about him... although intelligence sources have confirmed that the militants have inflicted something like 10,000 deaths a year since the coup
>Well let me tell you something, I'm from Bamako and I say kill 'em all

>>63953731 (OP)

The Brave Mujahideen Fighters of the Sahel actually believe in what they're fighting for, the ziggers and the ziggerified niggers don't. The latter two will gleefully massacre those who can't fight back, but will turn tail and run the second they encounter anyone who so much as raises a hand to them like all cowards do.

>>63953863
>Sahelian warfare is all about rapid mobility. I'm not saying anything groundbreaking but everyone I've read who seems to know anything about the Sahel always talks about that. Probably important.
Ive heard about that. Looking at maps of JNIM/ISIS control in the region, its hard to really understand actual control but that really isnt important since controlling a bunch of empty scrubland doesnt really count for much. What matters is how fast they can move across said scrubland. If you look at photos and videos of the jihadis, they all use motorcyles or pickup trucks. It seems their strategy really isnt to "gain territory" in the usual way but to quickly strike junta forces and then wear them down by out maneuvering them. Also from what I read, a lot of their control isnt overt control such as raising black flags but more subtle such as making deals with local leaders to let them roam freely or taxing towns nominally under government control. its actually kinda strategically genius compared to other jihadis

I wouldnt be surprised when once russia inevitably loses interest in the region or has to redirect their forces for year 3 of the 3 day SMO and the juntas are more weakened that the jihadis launch a big offensive and take multiple major cities like what happened to Assad last year
>>63953927
>hail colonel ngubu as the second coming of che guevara
its mainly african nationalists/BRICS shills larping Traore as the next Sankara. for some reason, replacing french cock with russian cock doesnt cross their mind

>>63954011
I hate to agree with the frankposter but this is really the crux of Islamic militants around the world. They actually believe in something and are willing to die for it. It's not about money or fame.

>>63954023
Well, they were pretty comfortable taking Russian cock the last time everyone on the continent decided they hated Europeans.

>>63954011
>>63954028
has there been any examples of where Islamic militants have actually been defeated? everywhere in the muslim world it seems that the jihadi groups always win in the long run even if it takes decades and many setbacks.

>>63954078
The Philippines, for real. They had the shit slapped out of them.

>>63954028

They say that belief is no substitute for logistics, firepower, and general competence, and they're right. But at a certain point, if your side doesn't believe in what it's fighting for, you're going to lose, plain and simple.

>>63954078

Black September in Jordan. Palestinian militants, the pre-Assad Syrian Army, and local Islamists tried to overthrow the monarchy in 1970 and got put down.

The Muslim Brotherhood. They've been trying to seize power in Egypt for almost a century now and managed to fuck up every attempt to do so both legally and illegally. Even after overthrowing Mubarak in 2011, they managed to maintain their influence on the government for a grand total of less than two years before getting overthrown in a coup (that was largely supported by mainstream Egyptian Muslim clerics).

Not a military defeat per se, but efforts by Islamic militants to gain a foothold in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s largely failed and both of these countries are still secular and Western-aligned, and you can tell because there are bars and nightclubs all over Sarajevo.

>>63954205
>>63954205
>Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s
Islamic militants took part in the Battle for Vozuća

>>63953831
You joke but there would never be a better opportunity for militant nationalist jesus.

>>63954284
Rare historical appearance of the Cracker ISIS

>>63954205
>Not a military defeat per se, but efforts by Islamic militants to gain a foothold in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s largely failed and both of these countries are still secular and Western-aligned, and you can tell because there are bars and nightclubs all over Sarajevo.
Makes me want to take a vacation to Pristina, and flaunt the fact that I'm American.

>>63954525
You can make a spiritual journey to the Bill Clinton statue.

>>63954544
Dubs of good advice.

Is colonisation still possible? It seems like African armies are so bad that Europe could try colonisation again. Theoretically I feel like Mali would get completely destroyed by France or the UK in a week

>>63954566
There's no money in it. Even with slaves you wouldn't beat semi-skilled labor in Asia.

>>63954566
>>63954570
The russians aren't doing too well

>>63954566
Not even that. You could easily get a group of experienced mercenaries or a small contingent of European soldiers and topple any African government in a day or turn the tide of any campaign in a month. Thats what happened in 2012/13 when the Tuaregs and Islamists conquered all of northern Mali nearly splitting the country in two but the French involvement retook Timbuktu in a lightning strike. Same thing in CAR where wagner saved the ass of the russian backed government. The issue isnt destroying pathetic african armies but actually figuring out what to do long term. Sooner or later you just give up or the locals get angry and wage an insurgency.

>>63954544
>left wing Epstein client (Bill)
>right wing Epstein client (Trump)
Why thought? If I go to Albania I'm probably gonna go wonder around their commie pyramid and ancient castles plus dine at some restaurants and have me some yummy Balkan food.

>>63953831
>What weapons will be used during the Great AfroCrusade of the 2?100s
Probably what they've already got laying around which would be surp FAL's AK's PKM's AR's with Eokeks and the odd Mauser or Carcano unless they suddenly industrialize what would take decades in the course of just a few years which I don't see happening any time soon.

>>63953840
>african """armies""" exists solely to beat down civilians for protection money, they are not meant to fight against anything that can fight back
What about Greater Rwanda? I think they could at least fight off Liechtenstein in a peer to peer conflict. They're after all steam rolling the Congo, then again the Congo isn't really a real country to begin with much like their colonial overlords prior.

The local nigger juntas think massacring random people in/near jihadi areas will fix the problem and not give them an incentive to join instead

>>63954614
>or the locals get angry and wage an insurgency
Which inevitably leads you back to option 1: give up.

>>63953731 (OP)
>and vatnik support?
That might explain why they're losing.

>>63954681
Pound for Pound Rwanda is probably stronger than most European countries. Issue is that they have a pretty small population and are dirt poor relative to even Eastern Europeans i'm pretty sure.

>>63953731 (OP)
Years ago Vice did 3 part videos (IIRC Ground Zero Mali or something like that) and if you had watched it you'd understand. I think the second video became lost and it's a shame because in this one the Malian regulars tried to attack some insurgents hidden in a building and it was beyond comical, almost sad. They had no idea what they were doing, sprayed bullets everywhere until they ran out of ammo, in the end the French had to come and do it for them. Embarassing. I doubt things have changed for the better after the coup.

>>63955129
im willing to bet money that switzerland or the netherlands could easily beat rwanda in a fight

France has to go back in to safe the entire country. Don't they?

>>63955581
save* ofcourse

>>63953731 (OP)
niggers with zero morale and zero reason to cares vs protowhites with extremely morale and a lot of experience fighting far more capable foes

>>63953784
>We'll see plenty more such cases that will regularly be a total surprise to the West which somehow still cannot comprehend potemkin countries that lie about everything.
this

>>63955581
Aucun rembursement.

>>63955354
Yeah I remember vividly their retarded crouching hip-fire with a belt-fed, out in the middle of the street.
And it turned out the "insurgents" were like 4 child-soldiers. Pathetic showing by gov goons.

The vid was taken down as early as 7 years ago. Asking the producer about it gets you blocked.

>>63953980
Those are rookie numbers you gotta pump them up. I want at least 100k a years and going up every year

>>63953731 (OP)
a large part of it is that the current dictatorship is turning this into a ethnic civil war.
Most of the islamists where Fulani but most Fulani weren't islamists. And the French knew that the key to beating the islamists was to keep it so.
force the islamists into antagonizing the moderates so they end up turning against them. Cutting the islamists off from support and getting support form the general population for your campaign against. Then you can start hunting their remaining cells down. But in the end you won't even have to kill most of them as they will become disheartening and just stop being an issue.
The niggers didn't understand this. They see that most of the islamists are Fulanis so they conclude that the Fulanis are the problem. That there where prior ethnic conflicts ect. of course have nothing to do with it. So they start attacking random Fulanis in as brutal a way possible including cannibalism. Surprise surprise this drives the moderate Fulanis into the arms of the islamist. So they have turned an insurgency they would have won in a few years into a ethnic conflict they won't win in decade and can only win by committing a genocide.

In the end it all comes down to the difference between the white man and niggers.
The French being nominally white can think ahead and see how restraint will get you better results. So they practice and preach restraint because they are result driven.
Niggers don't and just chimp out, the russians being tundra niggers just add to the niggers chimping out. Because niggers don't care about results, they live in the here and now and doing what ever they feel like doing in the here and now.

this guy has some great content about the war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbpz8iMfLKY

>>63955536
even the belgians could do it

>>63954681
The pyramid has gotten a make over and now looks quite nice, if you are in tirana though i would recommend going to Enver Hoxhas bunker.

>>63955688
Pic of the pyramid

>>63955688
I heard there's a phone in there, and when you pick it up, it plays a pre-recorded speech by Enver Hoxha. So you can listen to that while making moves pretending to LARP like a supporter of your personal fave and unreconstructed Stalinist dictator, Enver Hoxha.

>>63955747
Also see:
https://youtu.be/1SQdXYFuO1U

>>63955672
>The French being nominally white can think ahead and see how restraint will get you better results. So they practice and preach restraint because they are result driven.
>Niggers don't and just chimp out, the russians being tundra niggers just add to the niggers chimping out. Because niggers don't care about results, they live in the here and now and doing what ever they feel like doing in the here and now.
True, i'd even wager that wagner did it on purpose, since stoking the flames of the conflict would significantly improve their job security, with the possibility of sparking another refugee flood to Europe as a nice bonus

>>63955797
>>63955797
fulani women are kinda cute..

>>63955832
the question is: do they have a clit?
I won't date a girl that I can't mindbreak into loving me unconditionally through continuous sensual pleasure.

>>63955659
>crouching hip-fire with a belt-fed, out in the middle of the street
Oh boy this part was great, that and the guy rolling on the rooftop.
It's weird because parts 1 and 3 are still here, only part 2 got nuked. Why was it even taken down?

>>63953731 (OP)
they are the same as the army, of course they are winning

>>63953820
>If you ever have a Christian sub-saharan African coworker, you'll know the hate runs deep
Are the tensions that high?

>>63953731 (OP)
>and vatnik support
There's your reason buddy.

>>63956006
The christian population tends to descend from the main source of slave for the arabe slave trade. Oh and Islam was one of the main argument for it (the real one was just profit but they used the koran as pretext) saying that the Christian hate the muslim doesn't even start to describe the problem.

>>63955747
Enver Hoxha be out there mainlining respect women juice

>>6395373
#who

>>63953927

Traore seems to have some weird charisma field around him where he can just wind people up and have them buy into the most inane shit he can spout. Mobuto Sese Seko had a similar effect on people, but that only gets you so far, even before your regime starts actively getting sieged by militants.The moment a serious rebel group in the DRC got going, the whole Zaire regime fell apart.

The second the jihadists in Burkina Faso start looking like they might actually do serious damage to him, Traore's on a one way flight to Turkey to live out the rest of his life in a Turkish mansion with his cut of the loot Africa Corps raped out of his country.