Thread 64211256

It will be another Iraq

militarily speaking venezuela doesn't have the things that made Vietnam & other similar conflicts fail.

Why do you think Vietnam managed to repell an invasion by America, China and defeat pol pot?
Because of Soviet support

Why do you think the Soviets couldn't defeat the mujahideen?
Because of Saudi and CIA support

Venezuela(maduro) has support from no one, except maybe Cuba and Nicaragua
Russia already has logistical problems in Ukraine to the point that they need help from North Korea...

And China wouldn't want to engage in a proxy war with their biggest trading partner just to support a highly unpopular dictator,
and even if they did they would have to cross thru panama or the southern tip of south america, and i doubt that Chile & Argentina would allow military ships to pass through to support a regime that they openly oppose

And even if they make it to the caribbean by the time they get there the whole place would be filled to the brim with warships

>but what if they go thru Brazil?
they would have to cross southeast asia
And even if they get thru it's unrealistic to think that Brazil would want to get involved in a war right at their doorstep on behalf of maduro (Lula blocked Venezuela from joining BRICS, to give you an idea)

So yeah, militarily speaking, they would probably be pushed out of major cities and into the jungle, where they would probably try to wage a guerrilla war, while having to fight the many drug cartels there probably.

>>64211256 (OP)
>but what if they go thru Brazil?
>they would have to cross southeast asia
?

>>64211270
I mean't that in order to reach brazil they would have to cross south asia first, then the indian ocean, south africa and finally reach brazil

>>64211256 (OP)
It won't even be another Iraq.
Iraq continued because of outside jihadis infiltrating and aiding the insurgents in Iraq, without outside support a insurgency CAN NOT EXIST.

>>64211256 (OP)
for the cartels to operate, they need facilities, and said facilities will be easily seen from air, leading them to be easily destroyed
they don't have any actual support, so anyone living in the jungle will immediately say "this fucking sucks ass" then drop whatever they're doing & go home
the fear of leaving the cartel won't be as issue, as their entire point of existing (making money) will be null the moment they're blockaded

>>64211256 (OP)

While Venezuela's military is hot garbage, PSUV has also had 20 years to entrench themselves within Venezuelan society and loads of hapless retards support them either out of fear, hatred, or brainwashing.

While it probably won't turn into a full-blown Vietcong insurgency, it's not going to be the cakewalk Trump seems to have convinced himself it's going to be either. It would be better for Trump to seek more discreet ways of removing Maduro from power.

>>64211426
Just assassinate him lmao

>>64211285
>without outside support a insurgency CAN NOT EXIST.

The Indians fought American encroachment for over a century and they had basically no outside support except for brief periods of alliance with Great Britain and the Confederate States.

>>64211444

Yeah that was what I was hinting at silly.

>>64211285
This is a reminder that when the uprising happened every single unit in the Venezuelan military failed to defect.

>>64211445
There were arguably an equal amount of Indians compared to whites in many areas. The few areas with white majorities never saw much of an insurgency.

Not to mention living off the land at the time was feasible and the Indians were very good at it. Also we dont use muskets and horses anymore, and scalpers cant just stay out of sight.

>>64211445
they also lived a borderline stone age lifestyle, while still trading with other tribes & settlers, during the fucking 1800's

also, what the hell is with you retards and going "but look at this thing from 200 years ago!!! thats just like now!!!"?
you do realize that we have more advanced technology than steam powered trains & rifles with rubber obturators, right?

The Taliban really didn't have support except maybe from Pakistan. Americans still lost.

Venezuela would look like that. Landslide victory in the invasion, Maduro ded in 2 weeks. And then 10+ years of unconventional attrition war with PSUV/allies until the US gives up. It's the Burger way of making war, as their failures in Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan show us.

>causing yet another societal collapse in a already destroyed country
Amerigolems are gonna amerigolm

>>64211516
>>64211526
its not a failure if the entire point was to torture & kill [everyone]

>>64211598
You would do the same if you're christian and someone steals foreskin

Trump-the peaceful president

>>64211458
>>64211462

I was trying to insinuate that an insurgency without support can win, but to flat out that one can't exist is just foolishly naive and simplistic.

If you want a more recent example, take the Tamil Tigers. Apart from a brief period in the 1980s where India was clandestinely supporting them, they received almost no foreign support of any kind. This was further compounded by the fact that they were on an island in the middle of the ocean with no porous borders to slip across.

>>64211458
>>64211462

I wasn't trying to insinuate that an insurgency without support can win, but to flat out state that one can't exist is just foolishly naive and simplistic.

If you want a more recent example, take the Tamil Tigers. Apart from a brief period in the 1980s where India was clandestinely supporting them, they received almost no foreign support of any kind. This was further compounded by the fact that they were on an island in the middle of the ocean with no porous borders to slip across.

>>64211256 (OP)
>another reddit faggot cheering for the brown communists with an off topic bait thread about a war that isn't happening
Sage

>>64211647
unless Bibi has a hate boner for Venezuela I don't see why Trump would start a war

>>64211669
Chavez was famously antisemitic. His party isn't pro is****
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuHadVqn5gQ

>>64211674
antizionist*

>>64211256 (OP)
Anyone who is reading this off topic shitpost thread should realize that almost everyone in the Americas would be happy with Maduro gone. The vast majority people cheering for a protracted insurgency are from Europe and Asia, making them unaware how hated Maduro is among his own people and his neighbors, nor are they aware of the historical precedent for such interventions.

>>64211447
>>64211426
Maduro isnt enough, you need to beheav the upper sphere of the Venezuelan government including dipshits like Diosdado Cabello and everyone with a big name in ther commie party. Remember Maduro simply picked up after Chavez.

>>64211778
It would look exactly like Panama, token resistance, militias and elite standing troops being utterly decimated while a big bulk of the troops desert from low morale, bad command and simply not giving enough of a shit about their government to die for it.

>>64211455
The only reason the Venezuelan army didnt defect was because they have actual kommisars suppressing political dissent inside and they are also the ONLY people in the country who get fed properly. They dont want to starve. They dont want to die to a JDAM either.

>>64211256 (OP)
More critically Russia is in no position to support them and China won't bother trying because Altantic and Pacific. Aside from that the manduro/chavex regime is not very popular with most of the Venezuelans because people don;t like poverty want and dicators in the end of the day

>>64211778
fair

cubans are in no state to put troops in either. Frankly its good timing to get rid of maduro

>>64212154

Maduro falling would probably lead to Cuba and Ortega collapsing as well. The full reveal of the atrocities in all of these countries, especially the Helicide in Caracas and the decades of notes in Cuba will probably do more to discredit the Latin American Left than anything in its history. Could easily lead to Lula losing power as well in Brazil.

Would be kino and give LATAM Honorary Blanco status.

>>64211778
>off topic shitpost thread
No such thing on this board anymore.
On topic threads get removed, off topic threads stay up. Rules don't matter anymore so don't go by them when judging a thread.
If it appeals to the redditors/Ukraine cheerleaders or if a shill group pays well enough then it gets to stay.
If it triggers the commies like the thread about the strike on drug runners did then it gets pruned. You aren't allowed to say anything remotely positive about Trump on this board even in relation to weapons or military actions.

From what I can tell Venezuela would be easier than Iraq and way easier than Afghanistan to pacify and westernize. They wouldn't need much in terms of financial aid to accept a democratic successor regime post US intervention.

>>64211516
Afghanistan is far more complex sociopolitically than Venezuela. If a communist regime can thrive in a nation, the USA can supplant it with a western friendly regime.

wasnt this the plot of cawadoody ghosts

>>64211256 (OP)
>Vietnam managed to repell an invasion by America
You mean when the US was invited into South Vietnam by the government of South Vietnam? That’s not an invasion, Corky.

>>64211256 (OP)
Venezuelans are literally begging Trump to liberate them. Even fucking commies are tired of Maduro’s shit. He lost the last election and cancelled the result. Venezuelan soldiers will flee or turn their guns on loyalists. It will be what the bay of pigs was supposed to be.


>t. Has Venezuelan family

>>64212228
Nah the backstory for Ghosts was that Venezuela managed to convince most of South America to form a union with them at the top and then invaded the other countries that didn’t join like French Guyana, and then they went a conquering up Central America to the souther US boarder (who mind you did the bare minimum besides blow up a dam to stop this threat in their backyard).
And then Venezuelas highjacked the US orbital weapons platform and started dropping rods on the continental US.

>>64211256 (OP)
>It will be another Iraq
You should probably sit down before you catch up on how that worked out.

>renames Department of Defense to Department of War
>goes to war right afterward
>God Emperor Trump sneak attacks Mexico
>Destroys any Chinese people in Panama
>Mass kidnapping and murder

All we fuckin wanted was less immigrants and Redneck White people to get jobs bro... why does life have to be this hard. Why should Democrats be the only people allowed to rule this country by law but be so fucking insufferable and gay?

>>64212264
Are you trying to imply that either time the US raped iraq to death, it wasnt an utter American victory?

>>64212258
I figured if the US basically ensures every Venezuelan can eat a plate of empanadas a day they autowin.

>>64211516
There are lots of pre-Chavez Venezuelans who know how much better shit was. Hell lots of them remember the fat times or the opec 70s. People there are fed up with Maduro’s shit, even some of what were previously his most loyal subjects. Things can only backslide for so long

>>64212268
Because they might call us chuds and hurt our feelings, we must be PRINCIPLED CONSERVATIVES and let ourselves be literally raped and murdered while saying "imagine if the shoe was on the other side" to own the libs.

>>64212281
One Mcdonalds in every corner of Caracas

>>64211256 (OP)
The US would have a majority of the populace on its side and wouldn't need to engage in a lengthy occupation. It would be another Panama though I doubt any US ground forces even need to be deployed in this case

>>64211256 (OP)
TACO ain't gonna do shit because he's too dumb and chickenshit to wage a war much less a assassination attempt on BasedDuro like he tried and failed to do in his first term lol!

>>64212335
>Communist using Bluesky shitlib memes
Fitting

>>64212341
>assmad /pol/ack that uses buzzwords because he can't into refuting arguments
Fitting

>>64212258

A successfull low cost takeover of Venezuela might lead to an American invasion of Mexico to oust the cartels (real ones this time). Thus success in Venezuela might put America on the road to a big potential disaster.

>>64212335
funny. I never hear the commies talk about Epstein before all this. $20 says they "forget" when the next Democrat is in office.

>>64212294
It was pretty ubiquitous around the time Chavez came to power. That being said, if Americans knew better they’d want to invade for the war brides alone. Venezuela makes beauty queens like Brazil make soccer players. There’s literally girls in the barrio saving up for cosmetics and runway walking classes. Shit is crazy.

>>64211445
>he doesn't know
Hey dumbfuck where do you think they got guns from?

>>64212384
that's it, guys. we need to liberate Venezuela.

>>64211622
Peace, through superior firepower.

>>64212112
>It would look exactly like Panama
So few remember.

>>64212258
>>t. Has Venezuelan family
You don't have a qt3.14 sister, do you?

>>64211622
Gotta Wag The Dog to avoid talking about the elephant in the room!

china sure cares a lot about america invading countries in america

>>64212474
Epstein victims cleared him. Sorry about that

>>64212474
Never, ever, ever. Or, just like the Warren Commision files, heavily redacted to hide the truth we all know.

>>64212370
Honestly, overpromising on the Epstein files was a mistake. I think the most likely scenario is that the government doesn't actually have that much hard evidence that they can release that isn't either illegal material or violating the privacy of victims. He was already convicted once, I don't think they held back much evidence. The only conspiracy I slightly buy into regarding the files is that Israeli officials are probably implicated to some degree and it'd interfere with current talks. We already know who visited the island and who he was associated with from previous document releases, there's probably not many secrets left to reveal.

>>64211622
Venezuela has been testing the US for years. Democrats would bend the knee but now Trump has the balls to call out the bullshit.

>>64212275
>it wasnt an utter American victory?

>thousands of Americans dead
>trillions of dollars flushed down the toilet
>Iraqi state basically delivered into the arms of Iran upon American withdrawal
>US troops had to go BACK just three years later because ISIS overran half the country in like a month

Does this sound like victory to you?

>>64212474
>muh files
Great way to out yourself as a retard.
>the files get released
>nothing happens
Tell me, do those files change anything?

>>64212537
>any of this
Nice fanfiction.
>Iran
Delivered so fucking hard that they allowed the US to whack one of their top generals while visiting.
>ISIS
>is ded
Do you have anything else to say retard?

>>64212495
true, it's not like there's a literal client list. but no one is being arrested for it, and frankly I don't think anyone will. to many high level people involved for that.

>>64212538
Epstein files posting will decline after today’s exoneration of Trump

>>64212543
>Delivered so fucking hard that they allowed the US to whack one of their top generals while visiting.
>evading the point this hard

>ISIS
>is ded

>>64212537
>thousands of Americans dead
>4,508 dead over a eight year period
I mean your right about thousands but even still 4,508 over eight years doesn’t seem too bad

>>64211256 (OP)
>Because of Saudi and CIA support
No... Because they share a border with Pakistan and if not for their willingness to truck those weapons in the Soviets would still mostly be fighting Taliban and Mujahideen dudes with Lee- Enfields for the most part which much like America backfired on Pakistan too even harder arguably given Pakistan as we know it isn't long for this world with their instability or rather lack of it plus the various separatist movements (which are totally justifiable).

Also Pakistan has their own version of the CIA known as the ISI. Unfortunate that they're only good at fucking shit up, they're incapable of fixing anything however.

>>64211516
>The Taliban really didn't have support except maybe from Pakistan. Americans still lost.
At the end point you could argue China was the Taliban's biggest backer even giving them NV goggles and other means to give them more of a fair fight, because rare earth minerals. Remember Afghans feel as though a large chunk of their ethnic lands was stolen from them by the British Empire and then later handed to Pakistan and honestly they aren't wrong in this resentment in my opinion.

>>64211426
>It would be better for Trump to seek more discreet ways of removing Maduro from power.
Or we could just wait and see if Maduro is actually retarded enough to start a war with Guyana while Exon Mobile is getting ready to develop oil drilling infrastructure there and never mind the US getting involved. Brazil France the Saudi led ARAMCO kingdoms Columbia and whatever random Injun tribe they piss off along the way would be beating their commie asses back home, because oil.
The US would eventually just be the vulture that swoops down and drives the final peck that kills the starving wounded beast that would be the Venezuelan military.

It's a lot easier to just build up your forces in anticipation for an attack against an inferior foe and reap the near endless support against dudes who are still using Mosins.

>>64212495
Its almost guaranteed to be Israel related because of Maxwell and the fact that the first probe was shut down over Epstein being with "intelligence". Also who can control both Democrats and Republicans for three consecutive administrations and congress? Who is actually above Trump on the totem of power in American politics? That got away with dragging America into striking Iran while mid-occupation of Gaza?

>>64212537
>thousands of Americans dead
Niggers upon learning that people die in war: :000 zomg!!!
Dont look up how many rag heads got wasted, you'll shit your pants.

>trillions of dollars flushed down the toilet
Thats like, your opinion. What would you rather have gibsmedats for Detroit for about 8 months of like ~1 million dead muslims? I pick dead muslims.

>Iraqi state basically delivered into the arms of Iran upon American withdrawal
Nigga?? Huh??? Are you stupid? Iraqis hate Iranians. They had a war over it, like 13 million shitskins died or something.

>all the rest of that shit
Iraqi skill issue. America skull fucked isis like it skull fucked iraq (twice). Curiously, isis was only ever effective against iraq when it did not have American backing. How curious, its almost like muslims are shitskin retards.

>>64212594
In addition to everything you said: the Exxon Mobil Guyana project that Venezuela frequently threatens is part owned by CNOOC, a Chinese state owned entity. So China has even less incentive to help Venezuela.

>>64212258
Your family will be happy to finally have a leader who respects election results.

>>64212268
>renames Department of Defense to Department of War

God, Trump is such a retarded fucking ape sometimes. We made that name change to specifically reflect on both the dramatic restructuring of that institution post-1945 (specifically granting civilian authority, most notably the Executive Branch, greater control over the Armed Forces) and its new role as the shield of the Free World against Communism and Trump’s dumb niggerbrain managed to somehow conflate this with being “woke”.

>>64212954
ok boomer

>>64211256 (OP)
10 bucks Venezuela becomes another vietnam

>>64212954
Trump embraces the beer commercial vision of America rather than what it was throughout the 20th century. Like how the US has traditionally treated military holidays as somber remembrances of sacrifice but Trump wants to create a bunch of military victory celebrations like Europe.

>Why do you think Vietnam managed to repell an invasion by America
Because the US was retarded, had no clear picture of winning, didn't do anything sane with the local support, didn't invade North Vietnam (basically creating a safe space for VC) and so on.

>>64213039
>inb4 this time they'll not be retarded

>>64212495
I genuinely believe the contents of the Epstein files are entirely related to his financial activities with the majority of it being nothing more than rich people moving money around to avoid taxes.

>>64212639
It's CIA black money.

>>64213020
Nah, we just had a vote and we decided we reject your gay vision of America.

>>64211256 (OP)
>Venezuela won't be another Vietnam
It will
>It will be another Iraq
No its gonna be Vietnam
>militarily speaking venezuela doesn't have the things that made Vietnam & other similar conflicts fail.
Jungle
>Why do you think Vietnam managed to repell an invasion by America, China and defeat pol pot? Because of Soviet support
Jungle power
Vietnam in jungle

All of this because trump doubled down on making maduro a target and placed a smattering of missile boats in the sea to perform counter-cartel operations.
The bigger takeaway is Maduro's posturing can only prove the basis of some claims made about him. Quite a shame nobody's popped his head for that 50 million.

>>64213368
Last time someone tried to kill Maduro, pic related happened, kek!

>>64213143
>It's CIA black money.

Same thing.

>>64211256 (OP)
Okay buddy, you go fight in the jungle. Who's to say they won't band together with the cartels? So have fun.

>>64213220
>>64213965
VENEZUELANS DONT LIVE IN THE JUNGLE YOU DIPSHITS

+90% OF THEIR POPULATION HUGS THE COAST IN CITIES AND TOWNS. THERE'S HARDLY ANY HUMAN HABITATION DEEP INLAND, NOT EVEN RURAL FARMERS GO IN THE ACTUAL JUNGLE. THE GOVERNMENT HAS NO INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE AMAZON TO FALL BACK ON. NOTHING CAN FUCKING LIVE THERE.

>>64212358
>Retard uses buzzwords, gets mad when buzzwords are used back at him

>>64212207
>MUH TRUMP
What, are those constant generals in /pol/ not enough for you faggots?

>>64214127
You mean the constant threads of browns seething about Trump? Who the fuck are you newfags thinking /pol/ is a pro Trump board anymore? 2016 was almost 10 fucking years ago the Fuentcels are more dominant than the magaboomers now.

>>64212487
Great, he should release all the files unredacted except for victim names to own the libs!

>>64214130
>using the word newfag when he's a 2016 election tourist
Go the fuck back.

>>64214139
>he's a 2016 election tourist
Where the did you read that you stupid brown skinned jeet? All I did was mention that /pol/ hasn't been pro Trump in a long time.

>>64214145
How does orange man do it? Even ammos going down after a high profile tranny mass shooting and Waltz being a gungrabbing shitfuck.

>>64212386
americans they bought from or stole from

>>64214145
>/pol/ hates the guy who gets a neverending general about him!
Uh huh. As if the gay little Fuentes feud you keep jerking off to isn't enough to tell me you're a /pol/tard who escaped containment.

>>64214157
You seem to know a lot about /pol/, maybe you're just being a false flagging /pol/nigger, likely a Fuentcel too.

>>64214014
>VENEZUELANS DONT LIVE IN THE JUNGLE YOU DIPSHITS
Yet
Besides, we got all these zoomers out there that need their own war, another vietnam would be good for them

>>64214157
bodied that fatherless FREAK

>>64211516
I doubt it. Latin americans arent Muslims, they arent fanatics. They mostly just do whatever to get by. If the yanks take the trouble to minimally improve the country, most resistance would cease in a year or two. Provided they do a decent job of setting up a puppet.

>>64214014
And what's the population distribution and hospitality of the climate in Afghanistan, might I ask?

>>64214014
>+90% OF THEIR POPULATION HUGS THE COAST IN CITIES AND TOWNS.

Wasn't the same largely true of South Vietnam?

>>64214339
>>64214507
Didnt Iraq have a million soldiers?

>>64212112
>The only reason the Venezuelan army didnt defect was because they have actual kommisars suppressing political dissent inside and they are also the ONLY people in the country who get fed properly. They dont want to starve. They dont want to die to a JDAM either.
This is half cope. While it's true that they receive way better treatment and their families are fed, it's also true that they are ideologically commies. You have to understand that most people in Venezuela keeping that shitshow running are True Believers. They will die for their ideology. Can the US do them the favor? Yes. Will it be easy or clean? No.

>>64211256 (OP)
Why are we forgetting that Congress won't pass an AUMF anyway? This shit isn't happening, like at all.

>>64214556
Are they? seems like mostly crony corrupt embezzlers to me rather than ideological fanatics, but what do I know.

>>64214609
Why do you think the current regime will be constrained by anything that congress or the court system would say? They just unilaterally deleted the parts of the federal government they don't like, and got away with it.

>>64215232
We don't live in a dictatorship yet. As dumb as I think the American people are, I don't think they're going to
I'm going to stop writing that post, but leaving it there, because I don't even believe that. Yeah, we're fucked, bro.

It's a good thing we're talking about invading south america instead of those documents that are totally a hoax and never happened and even if it did happen that's not important. Remember kids, the MS-13 terrorist pedophile communists are out to git ya, that's the most important thing! No no no don't look over here, look over there! It's a tren de agua!

>>64211445
>The Indians fought American encroachment for over a century

There was never a sustained campaign on the part of the American military. It was literally just brief campaigns of annihilation either to steal more land or in retaliation for something the natives did. The Indian wars have more in common with wildlife management than they do counterinsurgency.

> and they had basically no outside support except for brief periods of alliance with Great Britain and the Confederate States.

The US Army had minimal support as well, they frequently operated beyond their supply lines. Despite this it was mostly one sided, that's why the rare defeats like St Clair's defeat & Little Bighorn were so shocking.

>>64211516
Afghans are illiterate backwards stone age people who have no concept of the world or geo politics. Muslims and arabs in general are difficult to tame short of extermination cause they are fanatical brainwashed retards. Venezuelans despite being brown are "westernized" they have enough wherewithal to know where the winds are blowing. Right now Maduro isnt in any kind of threatened position. Better to not rock the boat despite shit conditions. Most communist inspired insurgensies in Latin America fail because the people aren't fanatical retards. Even the remote indigenous tribes have enough sense to know to keep thier heads low. Also terrorism and suicide boming yourself is an alien concept to them, nobody is going to martyr themselves for Maduro especially since most of the continents is catholic and believe suicides go to hell.

>>64215232
>>64215262
Now hold on now. The government has always made sweeping, nationally changing effects ever since the Constitution and the Union came to be. Big fight over slavery, women's vote, prohibition, fiscal deregulation, the 1986 funs massacre, just to name a few of the big ones we all know.

Anyonw who tells me
>but THIS administration
>but THAT administration
Can fuck right off.

>>64214556
Talking about how 'communists' will behave is like saying birds behave like X, are we talking crows or chickens or eagles or what?
The south american socialist species of communism hasn't got much to actually believe in other than hating America and wanting more prosperity. They're completely fine with capitalism if it improves their livelihoods.
Obviously it's quite tricky for America to openly install a puppet government there.
But if you just drop a bomb on the current dipshit leadership someone else will almost certainly take power who thinks that maybe intelligent market economics and oil fields can be used to make shitloads of money and fighting America in the name of global communism can just be a larpy hobbyist sideshow instead of actually believing it and speedrunning poverity.
Venezuela is a statistical aberration in South America, there's no logical reason they should be so much more fucked up than all of their neighboring states, we could literally just press their reset button with a decapitation strike and it's like 9 out of 10 they turn out normal. Probably.

>>64211256 (OP)
Argies won't stop diddlysquat without a navy. Least of all one of their chief trading partners, which mind you, they are indebted to while being downright broke.

>>64215992
>Venezuela is a statistical aberration in South America
Eh, it's more like the logical conclusion. Eventually we'll all get there. Browness can't be fixed.

>>64211256 (OP)
All I care about is the videos of military hardware will be good. Also lots of videos of crying children being bombed. Very funny stuff.

>>64216028
The logical conclusion in South America is Peru. Largely muttified population where the racial component of a post colonial state gets completely diluted into non-existence, massively corrupt and unstable but at the same time working entirely off its own inertia and a "nothing ever happens" population, economically active and thriving due to poor state regulation and dirt cheap labor but dysfunctional due to corruption and inefficiency. A country stuck in a limbo of always rising and always falling.

>>64212838
>a Chinese state owned entity. So China has even less incentive to help Venezuela.
Interesting, I wonder if Xi factored that in that if he's serious about re-annexing Taiwan he'll essentially be reliant on Western and Middle Eastern oil to do so since Russian oil rigs are slowly becoming an endangered species and that was pretty much their backup plan if the Malacca was to ever be blockaded, lol.

>>64214523
Doesn't the United States?

>>64216161
Venezuelan oil is an enigma. It's both difficult and time consuming to extract and is also the dirtiest, most sulfur contaminated, and lowest quality heavy brent on the planet. Refining it takes extra steps and time, and even with all this considered the quality variation per batch was record setting. The useful fraction of light oils/gases is very low and much of the rest can simply be called sludge barely fit for use as road asphalt, of which global industry needs little of because asphalt is the most recycled material on Earth.

Involvement in Venezuelan oil production is more of a curiosity exploration, and secondarily a reserve tap for if all else fails. China doesn't give a shit about it. They're only there to have presence.

>>64216485
The Guyana finds could prove to be much better which not only would mean American presence is mandatory to secure them from eastoid encroachment, it would spell ruin for Venezuela's fleeting extraction industry. A conflict will boil over one way or another.

>>64211256 (OP)
Test

>>64216446
On paper there's 1.32 million active soldiers, who also either directly control or are friendly with 1000 F35s.

Invasion of Venezuela would mean committing to support a weak right-wing puppet while rallying the masses for whatever leftie anti-US leader would emerge. Level of insurgency would depend on amount of political suppression and the US would have an impossible balancing act of preventing insurgency, delivering "freedom", and making sure their unpopular puppet stays in power. China can easily meddle by bankrolling the leftie candidate and offering their belt-and-road bullshit.
Tldr easy military win with lots of shitty political outcomes

>implying zoomers and millennials can fight in the jungles
(lol

Unlike 70 years ago good luck firebombing and napalming entire swathes of forest without riling up at least 40% of your population

The PTSD would be far worse than those boomers who got rekt by Uncle Ho and friends

Glorified SWAT teams and doorkickers who call themselves operators would get mogged since they don't do LRRP stuff anymore

There are also barely enough roads and bridges, good luck lugging around 30t-70t behemoths without them sinking in the mud

But yeah America will kill 800k-1M Joses but will lose more zoomers and millennials than Puccia did on Backmoot, half of them from malaria and venomous snake bites and half a million IED amputees

>>64211278
>in order to reach brazil they would have to cross south asia first
have you ever look at a map?

>>64211256 (OP)
>Should we spend a fraction of our defense budget finishing Russia off as a geopolitical military threat? With most of that money being invested in domestic US defense manufacturing?
>Naw, lets make nice with Russia instead, and invade a dysfunctional Latin American shithole. Then spend the next decade hunting monkey fucking commie gorillas in the jungle
>Russia will probably be arming said monkey fucking commie gorillas with weapons

>>64217064
>Trump is forced to do a u-turn and double-down on support for Ukraine to save face after the Russians get caught arming Venezuelan insurgents

I would be satisfied with this outcome.

>>64216798
There is already a government in exile that would swoop right in, call for elections and probably reform the government right away. The only issue would be the remnants of the Maduro government joining the militias in Colombia which are a resurrected and reinvigorated FARC thanks to Gustavo Petro being a weak bitch. But these also heavily depend on Venezuela harboring them.

An ideal situation is the US doing the killing and a South American peace coalition with Colombia, Brazil and a few others lending troops for peace keeping for a few years ala Haiti

>>64211256 (OP)
Iraq was a bigger failure than Vietnam for the United States. Removing Saddam turned iraq into a ally for Iran.

>>64211256 (OP)
Venezuela just Trump distracting the public from the Epstein files. Just like Putin visit was.

>>64216090
No, as an old enough beaner I can confidently say the logical conclusion is eventually becoming a failed, corrupt kleptocracy where nothing works. Basic services, healthcare, security, defense and even commerce more advanced than a basic barter system, all gone to the dogs. Even though browness doesn't help, the problem has deeper roots also mired in browness. Spaniards, like the greedy brown retards they are, set up extraction models with no real intention than to exploit the region which led to concentration of power, and more importantly infrastructure, into a few select ports. If you track both road and demographic maps of the region, the story is the same across the board: A web of tendrils extending from a single cancerous lump, generally the capital of the country in question, extending towards resource rich areas of the interior without no interconnection whatsoever. This simple factor created countries designed to fail, rife with deeply entrenched centralized systems, inefficient road and rail networks, political entrenchment of a quasi aristocratic elite around a country's capital, extremely poor use of the land, the concentration of the population around a single or pair of clusters, again, generally the capital, income inequality, etc etc. Brief periods of prosperity due to an uptick in the price of commodities is indicative of nothing. It's just cyclical Dutch disease because the revenue is never committed to fix the fundamental issues with each and every country in the region: We're all brown, corrupt and lazy shit(skins), just like our colonizers, our founding fathers after them and the brown med yuros that settled here after they were literally paid off to fuck off from their home countries. You can't polish a turd.

>>64217064
Happenings in Venezuela affect us more than happenings in Ukraine. So yes, actually.

I'd be worried about our ability to do this back when we had a pussy Department of Defense, but now with a Department of War we're gonna kick ass like it's 1945 again.

I think were going to rape vuvuzela in the bootyhole so hard it wont even be funny
And then we leave and the non commies take over and everyone lives happily ever after

>>64215262
>I don't think they're going to

Anon, they don't think. Period. The average MAGA voter couldn't even tell you what "rule of law" means.

>>64217961
the spanish were so greedy for resources they forgot to build a buc-ees at the halfway point to the silver mine and that's the reason you're poor 200 years later?
Lots of places look like tendrils coming out of a cancerous node, it's called a city, many here are familiar with them and aren't thrilled that they extract taxes and take the coolest guns away from us
the western half of the united states follows the rapacious resource hungry model you describe, while the eastern half was much more traditionally settled. The western half is somehow richer though.
I'd love to know your mind about Milei and Bukele and any other south american shit if you want to share.

>>64217857
This. Everything Trump does is just to distract from the fact he's only two weeks away from being impeached and publicly executed.

>>64212370
Then go outside and talk to people you retard. Read some Petr Kropotkin. Epstein has always been an obvious byproduct of capitalism and the state. The ruling class has come to a point where they can just get away with even pedophilia and conservatives are too deluded to understand putting someone else in charge doesn't change the system that enabled it in the first place

>>64218532
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria

>>64216907
>fight in jungles
why bother?

just secure a few bases in the comfy areas and then do all the patrols with drones

>>64218591
That's what the US thought in Vietnam.

>>64218463
He's not entirely wrong. If you look at the colonial models of the Spanish and the Brits when they first came over to the new world, one of these groups was specifically trying to start their own thing away from the crown and self-sufficiency was seen as the thing to be. In New Spain and the rest of the Spanish colonies, that was not. The whole purpose of the colonies in Spain was to serve as a cash cow. There was no effort at development. That being said, over the last 200 years, Latin America has improved quite a lot, but it was by destroying the old structures left behind by the Spanish and just plagiarizing the fuck out of the US in many of the legal traditions that now exist in those countries. However the great irony is that the US is now devolving into a Latin-American style democracy.

>>64218596
the us was thinking about drones in vietnam?

>>64218588
Ignored the critique also extending to statist structures too. Retard

>>64212560
It was still a few thousand too many, but the casualty ratios are probably the most lopsided of any major war before or since. Sometimes when thirdies seethe they'll post pictures of dead US soldiers but it's like bro, for every one of those pictures we have a dozen or more videos of your guys getting cut in half by an attack helicopter.

>>64211256 (OP)
I'm behind on Venezuela the fuck is happening?

>>64219172
To sum up everything before this week: Maduro regime is relatively unpopular and unstable, Venezuela has been pulling some China shit trying to redefine their EEZ to include newly found oil reserves off of Guyana. They've done some light harassment with patrol boats and the like but nothing major yet. They're also trying to claim that the true land border contains some of Guyana as well if I recall correctly. The government there is likely at least complicit in allowing cartels to operate if not outright controlling them as well. The most recent election is widely believed to have been stolen by Maduro by pretty much everyone. They've also been trying to get closer with Russia and Iran, and have shown interest in buying and setting up production of Shahed style long range attack drones. That's pretty much everything that happened up until last week.
The new developments are that a Navy task force consisting of a cruiser, 3 destroyers, an attack submarine, and Marine force aboard an Amphibious assault ship plus other supporting vessels was deployed off the coast, ostensibly to counter drug trafficking. The Maduro government has lost their shit about this and is claiming that it's 'bullying', a threat, etc. Few days ago they blow up a narco boat, killing 11 and destroying a shipment of drugs likely worth hundreds of millions. Maduro government does not claim that the US murdered innocents, they claim the video is an AI deepfake (lol) putting to rest any theory that they were falsely identified. If the US did just kill some random dudes they'd never stop seething about it. Today, Venezuelan F-16s buzz a Navy destroyer in the area as a show of force. It's not really a serious threat as Venezuela doesn't have any anti ship missiles or even guided bombs to launch from them.
I think that's everything

>>64211444
They couldn't assassinate kebab Saddam and they won't assassinate taco Saddam. They won't win the war either just like last time.

>>64218532
Based.

>>64218588
>anon mentions the writings of Kropotkin, an anarchist
>bring up Beria, the perverted sinister hand of Stalin
>who literally repressed and murdered anarchists and similar dissidents
>the former in turn consider the Soviet Union a model example on the failures of state socialism, deriding it as state capitalism and Stalinism as "red fascism"
Knee-jerk reactions are the essence of non-thought.

>>64219202
Saddam was hung to death. The US won both Iraq wars, it was with the retarded nation building shit that everything went wrong.

>>64219201
>They're also trying to claim that the true land border contains some of Guyana as well if I recall correctly.
>Some
The area that the Venezuelan’s are claiming is like 70% of Guyana, if they had it their way what would be be left of Guyana couldn’t even be considered a rump state.

>>64218730
>>64217961
No, you are entirely wrong because of very patently obvious reasons. Extraction colonies were built in other places and succeeded, while settlements and whole new nations were raised and failed. Australia was a literal penal colony for the worthless of British society but prospered. African countries like Rhodesia and South Africa succeeded as colonies then collapsed when turned free. Every other European nation including France, Belgium, Sweden, the Netherlands and fucking Italy tried colonies meant for long term stay and nation building as a way to project power instead of resource extraction and all did worse than Spain. The difference is simply that Anglo colonies transfered their population with European values and mindsets over instead of trying to turn a bunch of feral niggers and Indios civilized over a few generations with a crash course in clean water and the word of god. The Africans have the opposite brain wiring to that required for long term nation building, they dont have a guilt based social contract like Europeans or a shame based social contract like Asians, they have a threat based one and cant even conceive of the flow of time the same way. Abbos are the same. Native American populations, whether north or meso or south, had a much higher potential and achieved organized civilization on their own, but they were still not ready and werent going to just catch up and become like Europeans by living with them, you cant remove the Indio from someone by just showing him how better things can be. He still believes the rich are simply doing magic things to make themselves rich by making him poor, because in his mind everything is still just shit lying around in the forest free for the taking, and they got it first.

>>64212294
Peace through superior cheeseburgers

>>64219172
Trump is trying to start a war in a pathetic attempt of getting out of trouble that he got himself into again.

>>64219201
>>64219535
Thanks. Although I predict nothing

Nothing happens.

There is no war with vuvuzela

They weren’t even willing to shoot down a hostile jet buzzing a US Navy vessel, they showed their cards and their cards are shit

>>64223138
The Commie Dictator Madurine will end his tale like G'ACKdaffi. Hiding in a sewer pipe, dragged out, beaten to death by Mayan clubs, and with all of this recorded from an overhead Mavic DJI.

Isnt wagner or some other russisn group working for venezuela?

>>64219535
Biden completely failed to reach a diplomatic solution and gave sanctions relief for Maduro to just steal the election again anyway so I'm not sure what exactly you want him to do

>>64211256 (OP)
>Why do you think Vietnam managed to repell an invasion by America, China and defeat pol pot?
> Because of Soviet support

>Why do you think the Soviets couldn't defeat the mujahideen?
>Because of Saudi and CIA support
I dread to think people can be so retarded as to actually believe this.

>>64211285
not fully

the sunni insurgents in iraq were almost all homegrown and used local arms and munitions (these guys eventually turned into isis, lol)

the shia were mostly homegrown when it came to personnel, but they had iranian supplying some arms and munitions (mostly efp parts, high velocity explosives for them, mortars and rockets)

if venezuela has enough arms and munitions and nationalists, they can do an insurgency

>>64212112
So it won't be a Vietnam, it will be an Iraq or A-stan

>>64224446

Not start a pointless war for no reason against a pissant country that's doing more harm to itself than anyone else?

>>64211256 (OP)
China is already destroying the American farming industry by not buying from us and buying up farmland. They’d 100% proxy war Venezuela to cripple us more.

>>64219535
lmao now this is some fucking cope.

>>64225394
>Latin American country sucking Russian and Chinese cock
>Hub for narco-trafficking
>Highly probable that it is either a narco state or will become one
>Destabilizing the entire region
>Fucked American Oil and Gas companies out of billions
We've buried clowns for less.

>>64225457
you just described cuba, and yet...

>>64225462
Cuba is utterly buckbroken, has no oil and is involved in minimal if any narco trafficking and are not threatening to take over a neighboring country with massive oil deposits.

>>64225457

>Latin American country sucking Russian and Chinese cock

Nigger, who gives a fuck, it's just a bunch of showmanship, they're not staging nukes and they don't have any power projection

>Hub for narco-trafficking

That's be more concerning if there wasn't a hub 10 times our size directly on our border that would suddenly have all it's competition eliminated

>Highly probable that it is either a narco state or will become one

See above

>destablizing the entire region

Do you not understand overthrowing the government causes more instability or are you just too retarded to understand cause and effect

>Fucked American Oil and Gas companies out of billions

Boo fucking hoo, go look at their market prices and you'll see they're all doing fine

>>64225462

Mexico's an even bigger hub for all that, but that retard only understands whatever ai shit he reads on facebook so don't expect him to be able to point out any of those 3 countries on a map.

>>64225474
Mexico is on the list too.
>b.. but I disagree with the policy!
No one cares.

>>64225457
>Destabilizing the entire region
You know what would destabilize it more? A war, occupation and insurgency.

>>64225488
Who said anything about a war and occupation? Go ahead and google "Gunboat Diplomacy", midwit.

>>64225472
They are the ones running the things in Venezuela, they're the link between Moscow with Latin America and bridged the region with despotic shitholes like north korea or islamic countries like Iran. Cuba literally is the only Latin American country with a well established and operative arm of intelligence service influencing and promoting political movements in the region.
Besides to be the main country to exploit minors for money (a lot of cuban "tourism" is just foreign going to fuck, minors included). The "foquismo" used by guerrillas in LA, that killed a lot of americans, was created and spread by Cuba and foreign trained in Cuba.

If you downplay Cuba that just shows you complete ignorance about this region.

>>64225502
>noo! ur just ignant!
Didn't ask and don't care.

>>64225519
>i must talk but i know nothing, fuck yeah
americanism 101

>>64225537
>nooo! you cant just reject my premise!
Just did

>>64225502
Why not just attack Cuba if they're the ones running the show and serve as a bridge for Beijing and Moscow and are as big of a threat as you claim that they are then?

Does anyone else have gun-fatigue?

>>64217189
>double-down on support for Ukraine to save face after the Russians get caught arming Venezuela
His hand certainly would be forced if either Maduro or Trump chimp out over shitty crude oil or oil that isn't a pain in the ass to process. The first time however I'd argue his hand wasn't forced he just flipped on the Russia bros either because he was planning to betray them from the very start (which I even warned the ZiggerZisters and MAGAtards that was a very real possibility but they wanted to remain delusional) or General Zaluzhnyi and President Volodymyr both got a mail order flash drive filled with the actual damning Epstein files.

Could be either, not that things would be all the different if a Democrat was in office.

>>64225431
>China is already destroying the American farming industry by not buying from us and buying up farmland. They’d 100% proxy war Venezuela to cripple us more.
Say the Cold War 2.0 gets hot, what's stopping the US for ceasing and then auctioning said farmlands back to it's citizens (in an ideal world, they'll probably be given to Bill Gates or Private Equity firms for pennies). We could make all sorts of bullshit excuses and maybe a few good ones too and no one would bat an eye.

Seems fair to me, fuck with the flow of TSMC's products and no more cheap beef and grain 4UChyna.

>>64212480
>china sure cares a lot about america invading countries in america
I'd be against it to unless MemeDuro decides to actually invade Guyana first then blowing shit up there is fair game, I'm no hypocrite. Same reason I personally think we should start re-arming Tibetan insurgents because the CCP also had no right to invade it and fuck Reagan and Clinton for just brushing that off like it was nothing.

>>64225502
>If you downplay Cuba that just shows you complete ignorance about this region.
Well commies there did service the failed US bay of pigs revolution so fair enough, maybe we shouldn't underestimate the Cigar salesmen. But if they interfere in defending Guyana from Maduro's hypothetical land grab the actual US army and navy would steamroll the Cubans, CIAniggers and cartels can stay on the bench this time.

Also side note did they ever figure out if that sonic weapon that was being used to give diplomats the worse headaches you've ever had in their whole life? Was that Russia or China testing some shit out?

>>64211445
and now they're smoking meth in old FEMA trailers in the desert all day

>>64213428
well it was a half-larp event

>>64211458
How many whites would you like to ship off to Venezuela to fight your war, shlomo?

Most cozy thread read in awhile yall. It's too bad the feds are too proud to hire intelligent people

>>64216090
This guy Latams

>>64217961
I unironically think that a big part of why the US was so successful was the fact it's made up a bunch of small states instead of just three or four provinces, it spreads shit out enough that it means if one state starts going to shit too badly Americans still have an option to move to a less shitty state without needing to go through the hassle of immigrating to a whole new nation. It also self-corrects to a degree because if some state starts going to shit it will start underperforming and lose business and thus taxes to states that have their shit together. Competition and accountability are probably the most important things for keeping things to going to shit, competition because it means that people don't HAVE to accept that things are dogshit and can just leave, accountability because... well, just look at places that don't have it.

>>64212192
It would be so based. Lula is so fucking hated right now it's too bad Brazilians have servility breed into their bones

>>64212192
I don't know what is going on in Cuba, but the Ortegas have gone nuts I think. Daniel Ortega made his crazy New Age witchy wife co-president and she installed these metal trees all over Nicaragua to ward off evil spirits. Pay no attention to the government goons in the foreground.

>>64212258
Yeah the communist party (the PCV) broke with the PSUV some time ago and has been effectively outlawed:
https://x.com/OrianaBeLike/status/1818079155344257250

>>64214556
>>64214839
At this point it's more corrupt military kleptocracy. From what I can tell, the Chavista coalition in the 2000s was built around an alliance of the military, trade unions, left-wing social movement activists, and slum organizations called colectivos. But that pretty much collapsed after Chavez died and all that remains are the military and (some) favored slum organizations. Another odd thing that isn't known about much is Maduro hamming up being a Christian, recruiting Evangelicals (in a majority Catholic country) and giving gibs to Evangelical churches, which is strange because Evangelicals in Latin America are often more pro-U.S. coded.

>>64228163
This is a bit of a wild card but I'm not sure Cuba would get involved in Essequibo, and it's possible they'd remain neutral. They have been curiously silent on Venezuela's saber-rattling recently. Part of this might be that historically Cuba has ties with Guyana. Before Chavez came to power, Venezuela had right-wing governments, and Guyana had left-wing governments friendly to Cuba, and Cuba sided with Guyana on Essequibo (like, 1960s). Guyana was also a pit stop for Cuban troops going to Angola during the Cold War. An interesting thing about Guyana is that there's a complete absence of a center-right or conservative party there, there are two parties that are broadly under the social-democratic umbrella, but effectively one represents the Indo-Guyanese population and the other represents the Afro-Guyanese population.

>>64228163
>Also side note did they ever figure out if that sonic weapon that was being used to give diplomats the worse headaches you've ever had in their whole life? Was that Russia or China testing some shit out?
Also, I think that story was nonsense. There was never any evidence to pin down what was going on, and it might have been, what's term for it... a psychosomatic illness? Some people at the State Department got headaches? I don't buy that there was some Russian sonic weapon. Not that I'd put it past them but there's not much "there."

>>64231037
>Maduro hamming up being a Christian, recruiting Evangelicals (in a majority Catholic country) and giving gibs to Evangelical churches, which is strange because Evangelicals in Latin America are often more pro-U.S. coded.
it would make sense if he is stringing along a coalition of minorities
basically helping the evangelicals because they are a minority and since he is better to them then the alternative they'd support him
it could also be that he believes that the evangelical wing of the GOP will block direct intervention if he is one him self

>>64231094
Yeah. There are some articles about it. Like I was saying, it's bizarre in this context because usually the Evangelicals in Latin America (like in Brazil) are supporters of conservative parties, can be very pro-Israel, etc. while Maduro has substituted the loss of his allies on the left and the labor unions (who all hate his guts) with the Evangelicals while continuing to play up the anti-U.S. foreign policy (pro-Russia, pro-China, pro-Iran, pro-Palestine, etc.). Social conservatism. This is what the PSUV has done post-2015 and especially post-2019. It's a reflection of this party mutating into something else.

Like this whole thing is a very cynical scam you know. Make deals with the kleptocratic military-mafia, with evangelical Christians, and tell everybody else that Jesus is taking the wheel and take it on faith that he won the election, which is after he conspicuously became an evangelical Christian ahead of the race.

>>64225496
nigger we blew up a boat with 11 people on it that is not diplomatic

>>64217961
This beaner gets it; it's the same reason why Spain itself never developed any industry or commerce like the UK or even France did; it used its colonies like credit cards to fund dynastic wars and HRE politics in Europe and just lived on gold and silver exports like it was borrowed credit. They were the global dominant power for a couple centuries just like a hobo who found a briefcase of cash and decided to spend it all on hookers and champagne rather than investing in the future. English colonies weren't as profitable so English industry developed as a way to profit from their secured colonial markets by selling manufactured goods like textiles and guns. In contrast the only places in Spain that developed indigenous industry were non-Spanish Basque and Catalan regions.

>>64211256 (OP)
>Why do you think Vietnam managed to repel an invasion by America
The US didn't invade Vietnam, and the NLF's guerilla war against the RVN effectively failed post-Tet Offensive. The South lost because it was abandoned by the US and was defeated in open battle by a North that had built up a superior conventional military force with a numerical and technological advantage.
>China
Honestly I think Vietnam would have been able to beat back China even without substantial Soviet support. Everything about the war on the Chinese side sounds like a fucking clown show, from the tactical up to the strategic level.
That said, aside from the Maduro regime's inability to actually receive support, another factor is legitimacy and popular will in Venezuela. The government has nowhere close to the popularity required to sustain a long-term guerilla war following a conventional ass kicking, and that's assuming Maduro doesn't just get black bagged immediately after an intervention.
People are also massively underestimating modern ISR capabilities, which I firmly believe would have won Vietnam even in spite of retarded leadership and strategy.
>>64211445
American businesses sold arms and supplies to the Indians and the US Army was also operating with limited support.
>>64214507
Not really. The coastal urbanites of South Vietnam weren't the problem since they were almost all neutralists or pro-government. The NLF was able to survive in the countryside because the US/RVN strategy didn't focus on physically recapturing occupied territory, allowing them to just keep existing in spite of casualties and receive support through the Ho Chi Minh trail.

>>64211256 (OP)
>Outside support makes an insurgency invincible.
Nah, it’s all about where they can flee to.
In vietnam they fled into laos.
In afghanistan they fled into pakistan.
In iraq they fled to syria but it was more scattered because the invasion was done so fast it left any would be insurgents spinning, and they only got to reorganized into ISIS a lot later down the line.

Where they flee to is also where they’d get any outside support from, so if you locked down the borders you’d coincidentally win anyways, even using your flawed assumption.