>>512985329
>how long
Global debt market is the determinant.
See the archive.4plebs thread
>>512981464 <--Ray Dalio warned about this in his new book
Couple more:
https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/506316301
https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/492587004
As long as the global debt market is made-to-remain 'solvent' and worldwide confidence in the bond market stays steady.
I was predicting, sensing we'd have a collapse this summer back in April-May. But what has happened is (never mind the tariff stuff, all of that is giga-overblown) the bond market has 'stabilized' over the past month, it appears that spiking of the 10-year yield and other bond yields is not happening. (Many surmise that central banks, including the Federal Reserve are putting debt/bonds back onto their balance sheets, to prevent spiking of yields and vacuum up unsold bonds)
The problem is twofold from a monetary and fiscal (gov spending ^^^^see the Interest Payments graph upthread) policy point of view.
The United States is now approving $2T/annum budget deficits, at that rate we have about 4 or 5 years left before the Interest Payments brick wall is reached aka Total Default.
Unless:
(continuing the ever-greater-deficits and debt paradigm, which is exceedingly bad but) United States can 'grow its way out' of the Interest Payments tsunami that is inundating itself with, by getting the *annual GDP growth rate* up from its current anemic ~2%, to around 5% or better.
That is what the incoming adminstration, its top economic advisors/experts like Russ Vought, Bessent et al. are 'banking' / betting on.
That we will all see, within a year or 19
*Also* the signaling of this *forecast*(<--remember none of this is actually *occurring* in the Real Economy rn) growth is helpful overall to both bond market and stock/asset markets. (Hence all of the happy talk we hear from the current admin about restoring and reshoring American manufacturing industry, balance of trade etc.)