>>16779625
>I mean the long term "alignment" bit. chimpanzees cannot align humans, or not for long
Means that worst you can see is prisoner's dilemma. Assuming its an actual superintelligence, not "superintelligence"
But not going to happen. It's not just about 14nm process. Reminder: cpu clock speeds have stagnated about 20 years ago. yeah, in 2005.
Anybody who bets on witnessing an artificial superintelligence in this life without cryopreservation wager, is betting on, i guess, optical chips. This is the most realistic bet for ASI optimists. China claims they somehow made such a chip that is not even bad in comparison to modern silicon chips. In theory optical chip technology can scale in 3 ways:
first in size, because light travels faster. idk, i am not actually a physicist, i see different numbers for electron in a cpu, 3000x is the most impressive number i have stumbled upon, so maybe 3000x bigger chip with consequently 3000x better performance
second in clock speed, the most optimistic number is above 100GHz, so 25x
third, in parallel by different colors of light, it can be thousands of slightly different lights, so roughly 3000x
another thing about this is that it does not need much energy, with the most optimistic numbers going 1000x cheaper energy consumption, but that number i guess no way assumes 3000x bigger chips
using single digit iq math we arrive at
3000*3000*25=225000000x better performance if we are turbo optimistic about like everything
then if we have that it's still chaos of unpredictable complexity and critical lack of good data, there is just not enough data