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ID: nj23xu44/biz/60603850#60604985
7/10/2025, 8:09:10 PM
ID: BESf0aBp/biz/60581034#60581352
7/4/2025, 4:59:31 PM
>>60581327
It's true that the only way to get a sustained downturn is a liquidity crunch, but for that to happen you need a more widespread financial crisis.
Otherwise it's just going to be a rapid V-shaped recovery like 2020 or 2025.
I think people overestimate the importance of retail here, most of liquidity comes from big players.
I don't know where this widespread financial crisis might come from, only thing I can think of is Private Equity / Private Credit. It's illiquid, valuations are made up and the loans are packaged and sold in tranches (2008 style) with varying levels of ratings and risk. But no one knows what's underneath.
Anyway waiting for a crash is not the right strategy, ChatGPT tells me that the S&P500 has been within 5% of its all-time-high for 50% of the time in its history. It will always feel bubbly.
I'm going back in I'm just going to take it a bit slower for my own sake.
It's true that the only way to get a sustained downturn is a liquidity crunch, but for that to happen you need a more widespread financial crisis.
Otherwise it's just going to be a rapid V-shaped recovery like 2020 or 2025.
I think people overestimate the importance of retail here, most of liquidity comes from big players.
I don't know where this widespread financial crisis might come from, only thing I can think of is Private Equity / Private Credit. It's illiquid, valuations are made up and the loans are packaged and sold in tranches (2008 style) with varying levels of ratings and risk. But no one knows what's underneath.
Anyway waiting for a crash is not the right strategy, ChatGPT tells me that the S&P500 has been within 5% of its all-time-high for 50% of the time in its history. It will always feel bubbly.
I'm going back in I'm just going to take it a bit slower for my own sake.
ID: qbYg+Isp/biz/60533520#60533747
6/22/2025, 3:54:15 PM
I was looking at some old tax paperwork and I came across me selling 10 x units of AAPL in July 2016 and another 10 x units in August 2016
That was pre-split so equivalent to 40 + 40 x units today
Got about $2k for them back then, now worth 8 x times as much.
And what did I do with those $2k? I needed money for a suit and work clothes because I got a new job.
I own none of those clothes anymore.
That was pre-split so equivalent to 40 + 40 x units today
Got about $2k for them back then, now worth 8 x times as much.
And what did I do with those $2k? I needed money for a suit and work clothes because I got a new job.
I own none of those clothes anymore.
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