>>212354957
see:
>>212354029
The average adult mortality rate in the U.S. is about 1 in 100 per year.
Over 5 years, the cumulative risk of dying is roughly:
1−(0.99)^5≈4.9%
So, each person has about a 4.9% chance of dying over 5 years, regardless of affiliation.
We'll use approximate 5-year probabilities:
Suicide: ~0.08% (lifetime risk ~1.1%)
Hit-and-run: ~0.003% (very low)
Natural/undisclosed: ~4.5% (the bulk of all-cause deaths)
We want to estimate the odds that among 30 people, we get:
1 hit-and-run death
1 suicide
1 natural/unknown death
...in a 5-year window.
So the expected number of total deaths among 30 people in 5 years is about 1.4, and the expected number of these 3 exact causes is about E≈0.0009×0.0008×1.35=0.00000097 or roughly 1 in a million.
This isn’t even accounting for increased mortality that a group of MeToo people likely have due to various mental illnesses or debaucheries.
Ultimately more likely than getting struck by lightning, hit by an asteroid, or dying in a plane crash.
