Thread 23464596

Parabolic Edition

Oil bros

My portfolio is getting rugged

>>23465553
the riggers are trying to spoil our fun

>>23465591
I dont k ow what that tweet means tbqh

dead gen

>-5% this morning already
Fug...

paper hands getting spooked. hodl and all that, lads.

Ah my EF position getting cooked. A 4x is now only a 3.5. Some convertible note hedging seems to be at work

Bought back into Encore. Seem to have timed my sale immaculately.

Note to self: don't make trades immediately after waking up.

>>23465698
don't let anon trade before xher morning coffee!

desu

might see some consolidation across sectors in the very near term. Feels like risk is converging across markets again.

>>23465725
tech and crypto leading the plunge

oil too

>>23465768
big if true

>>23465768
For crash due to their debt problem

>>23465789
not just their debt problem... sovereign debt is a major problem globally. Remember the Eurozone crisis? That was a sovereign debt crisis. Things haven't improved since

>>23465795
No, I have an amnesia and I think everyone else is running balanced budgets.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/06/home-prices-in-the-largest-countries-of-europe-they-range-from-splendid-housing-bubbles-to-a-market-that-dropped-back-to-2010/
Great piece on European housing prices from Wolf Richter. Most are in a bubble (Poland, Netherlands, Portugal etc), some are flat. Finland stands as an exception with the housing index prices down at 2010 lows. Charts included, check it out if you're interested

Are you buying
What are you buying

>>23465805
Because housing always go up, bro. To the mooooon. Well, Euros are economically illiterate and housing is their typical investment vehicle. They want zero interest rates loans to buy housing too and every few years they get them for some groups etc.

>>23465807
Stuff.

>>23465808
I heard the situation in the Netherlands is especially bad because they have some kinds of old legacy mortgages where they only have to pay interest and none of the principal. So the owners just keep chilling in their houses paying next to nothing and buyers are left chasing the few properties that are available

Over here prices have been going down. Our economy is in a strict austerity phase. It's a buyer's market in housing for sure. How are things in Poland?

>>23465817
Recently I have read article that was claiming that it's buyers market in Poland too. At least in bigger cities. Prices are still comedy gold high tho. Even 17k PLN/m2 in one city (not Warsaw surprisingly)

>>23465833
Inwas in the eastern outskirts of warsaw two months ago for a month
New house construction is healthy out there many new homes being built

>>23465837
We have a comedic situation where we have a shortage of housing in total but also a huge amount of new housing in cities. Yet still below European average availability of housing. And prices were pumped by cheap or even free (zero or almost zero rates) credit. Typical Polish comedy gold you have to get drunk to even try starting to understand.

Supposedly Poland lacks 1 500 000 flats to meet demand. as of may 2025.

>>23465833
doesn't look like a buyer's market in Poland to me

>>23465857
As I said it was an article. Articles could be misleading. Polish market is a fuckery and things differ from city to city from town to town.

>>23465860
And biggest cities are pumped by foreign corpos money paying well above average salaries.

>>23465861
Even prices in some shitholes could be eleveted as fuck just because majority of adult population works for majority of the year in Belgium/Germany leaving kids under supervision of grandparents or oldest kids. It's a convoluted fuckery that is hard to understand.

>>23465860
what do you think? Is it a bubble or not? Generally speaking

>>23465884
Generally speaking yes. It been pumped by govt interventionism after all and "investing" mania (almost no one here outside of few social groups understands stocks so they typically use USD or housing as "means of preserving capital" and housing as "getting rich over time scheme").

There are possible scenarios where it goes cheaper from little bit to significantly) but there are possible scenarios where current staus quo gets preserved (govt guaranted loans with low interest rates are not out of the question). We should also analyze prices adjusting them for inflation o monetary supply as PLN lost a lot in just lat 5 years in purchasing power.

We're crashing bros.

It's literally fucking OVER!

>>23465847
Sounds like Canaduh.

SELL

>>23466105
>We're crashing bros.
Shoulda bought illiquid shellcos, broe.

>Gold down 1%.
>All my juniors -8%.
FUCK!

>>23466315
>Continued.
>OIL down 50%
>All the OIL stock still at ATH.
>MFW I bought gold juniors instead of OIL stocks.

Crude oil is in contango. Good time to scoop up cheap high quality oil equities. I don't even want to look at my gold positions today, makes me feel ill

>>23466360
>I don't even want to look at my gold positions today, makes me feel ill
I took a look... It was grim. Would not advise.

https://x.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1978946762812592293?t=BWQCnxmNsm8hv-6mJv4HEA&s=19

>>23465735
Us banks are shittjng the bed for everyone. Liquidation to cover leverage.

>>23466374
>>23466360
I just woke up from a nap that feels like waking up from a coma, just looked at the shitfolio, I woke up in the wrong time line

>>23466312
I WILL OWN NOTHING
AND I WILL BE HAPPY

half my gains for the year gone. like tears in the rain etc.

>>23466540
How is that possible?
I'm only down like 10% after more than doubling my portfolio over the past 3 days.

>>23466441
what's the scoop? Another bank crashed and burned?

>>23466564
Global Atomic is my largest position. I've gone from ~52% up on Wednesday's peak to ~28% up now. Half my companies are down 10% today alone, after similar yesterday.

We hebben een serieus probleem

Look at all that red. Making some moves on the IRA, saw that AG and CDE were down close to 10% while PSLV was down only 5% so I dumped the last $20k I had in my rock and threw it in the 2 miners. Hopefully that scalps me a few extra percentage points on the bounce back and then later on in the bullrun I'll peel back some for PSLV or PHYS.
>>23466779
Kek

Is there anything that could cause a V shaped recovery today or do we have to wait for next week?

>>23466540
I'm set back anywhere between one week to one month, not too much of an issue for me

>>23466958
wait patiently. Time to consolidate for once

>>23467003
lol, same. I'm just wondering how quickly this dip gets slurped since the general stock market is still neutral and nothing has changed technically or fundamentally.
Admittedly a correction was much needed, charts were starting to look like space bound rockets.

>>23467003
a whole week this is unacceptable

>>23467121
this but unironically. My portfolio should go up 5% every day

>>23467366
Truth

>>23466564
You have been protected by Maple Syrup Cartel.

>>23467366
This week was a trial version.
To purchase full version call 666-FUCK-COMEX

>>23468296
>he doesn't know the chinks are also raising margin requirements on Monday

>>23468303
All I know is that Peking is a future has-been city and a decent crater of glass.

>>23468332
but I like Peking chicken

>>23468460
with Chinese cabbage?

>>23468486
mmmmm

>>23467366
i'll settle for 1%

nay, 2%

https://www.panorama-minero.com/en/news/rare-earth-elements-what-resources-does-argentina-have

I'm calling it now. Argentina rare earths

ah shit here we go again

i don't know & i don't want to know because i'm not a fvcking day-trade-tard

>>23469363
every country has rare earths, they're everywhere like lithium

Get out of any digital fakery lads, they're about to pull the rug on you very soon, physical possession is all that matters.

>>23471118
go back to your bunker, prepper

>>23470980
Irrelevant. Not everywhere has the same access or jurisdictional red tape/environmental regulations etc.

That's really where Argentina could shine is deregulation leading to investment

>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-18/oil-s-long-awaited-surplus-arrives-on-billion-barrel-flotilla?taid=68f37a6903c5b90001765be9&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&embedded-checkout=true
Oil dip coming. Dipping dippier

>>23471436
The world is not going to be short of rare earths once all this speculative investment leads to production. The thesis seems based on the idea that China will stop selling long-term once they no longer have a strategic monopoly they weaponise. Common sense says that they will simply sell into an oversupplied market and drive competition out of business (unless heavily subsidised by local governments).

It's the lithium boom in a new hat.

>>23471470
Lithium isn't a rare earth and is well supplied.

Also the world is only short heavy REEs and oversupplied in light REEs which is an important distinction since the hard rock carbonatite deposits being pushed in the USA, Canada, Greenland, Europe etc. are geologically high in LREEs but low on HREEs. China's export restrictions in REEs only apply to the heavy REEs. Important to not lump all the 17 REEs into a catch-all term, it's a common pitfall for the media, politicians and investors

>>23471436
It'll be very interesting to see how the Argentina situation evolves. Currently the USA is pumping the Peso pretty much singlehandedly. If Milei and his party get voted out by the populus the Peso will gigadump and all the benefits of the deregulation and oil/mining sector growth in Argentina are at risk. Then again that might be a positive for global oil fundamentals since there are so many barrels floating in the market right now.

>>23471118
based retard

>>23471470
Trump will help capitalist leaders and harm socialist leaders. The rare earths and copper could be the carrot the US dangles while drone strikes will be the stick.

Choose wisely

Guys,
Half of my portfolio is in my TFSA, meaning I pay zero capital gains tax on my gains. It's completely tax free.
The other half is in my margin account, meaning when I get taxed, my taxes are basically HALF of what an American would be paying due to capital gains taxes only applying to half of your gains in Canada.

So essentially I pay a quarter of what Americans or Europeans pay for taxes on their investment gains.
This is amazing.
If I make $500k I'll only be paying like 7% in taxes across all of my portfolios.

Why don't more people know about this?
How are capital gains taxes in your countries?

>>23471795
Also if I decided to put all of my investment in my TFSA and I made 1 million, I would literally be paying zero taxes lmao
The only reason I put half in margin account was to benefit from margin trading.

>>23471795
>How are capital gains taxes in your countries?
I have one delayed tax account where my gains will be taxed whenever I withdraw money. That one is in a very high cost brokerage sadly, but it is what it is. Dividends from countries other than Finland almost always have high withholding taxes that get double taxed in this account (first country of origin, then my own country's taxes whenever I withdraw. lol)

My other brokerage is IBKR which is a normal taxable account, and which I also use as a margin account. This is where I make most of my money. I will be paying a lot of taxes next year.

The cap gains tax is 30 or 34% if I make over a certain amount of money in a year. Dividends have a little bit of a tax benefit but it's not meaningfully lower.

I wish making money wasn't so difficult in this country.

>>23471853
Jesus....
I feel so bad for you guys.
We are all gonna make it anyway so it isn't so bad.

As cucked as Canada is, at least we have these amazing tax advantages for investing, which were leftovers from the Harper years and weren't fucked with.

>>23471868
it's not so bad. Finland has given me so much. Taxes aside being born here is akin to winning a lottery to begin with. I'm going to make it in time. The taxes slow me down but they cannot stop me.

>>23471882
Based

>>23471670
I think Trump pivots on chainsaw man very soon. Or dies. There's no deep ideological loyalty at the top, Argentina is becoming a wedge issue with the Republican peasant farmer base and a few handouts aren't going to solve much. They've connected some dots and have someone to blame for their farms going under.

Easier for Trump to call Argentinians thieves and scroungers like the EU and blame Biden for signing the worst deals of all time.

>>23471889
people so often forget to be thankful of what they have. I try to keep my feet on the ground. Arrogance is a common vice

I pay no taxes on gains held within an official UK tax dodger account.

>>23471901
Quick rundown?

>>23471896
I agree. Or rather, I think Argentina will vote out Milei and then Trump will turn heel on the support

>>23471901
Do you get taxed when you withdraw?

>>23471905
We can deposit £20k a year into an ISA account, which can be used to buy stocks among other things. We never pay or have to report any interest, dividends or capital gains on things within the wrapper, even when we withdraw. The system massively benefits people who can afford to put that much away every year, as allowances don't roll over. The Conservatives proposed an extra ~£5k to only be used on LSE stocks but then those clowns got the boot, and Labour wants to reduce the allowances (fair but inconvenient for me as I have money waiting from a house sale).

>>23471795
Unfortunately all my shares are in my IRA so if I took it out early theres a "10% penalty tax" plus regular income tax based on your total earnings that year. Im hoping to find some loopholes later...
I believe you can also roll it into a physical precious metals IRA.
Only time they suspended the penalty was during covid, who knows, maybe theyll do it again.

>>23471896
>>23471911
They're building an economic block. Venezuela and Brazil will play ball since they don't have a choice.

>>23472219
You're putting too much trust into the Argentinian electorate.

>>23472219
Good luck with that I'm sure it'll be a rousing success lol

>>23465805
>Housingcrisistugal

>>23466540
Like turkey twizzlers at school lunch......simple as

>>23472219
Like Oprah, "you get a swap line and you get a swap line."

>>23472451
When they default, we will need concessions, like mineral rights.
>>23472223
They better stay white and free if they wanna be free and white
>>23472291
I mean, it worked everywhere else....
It says right here in this history book that, fortunately, the good guys always won.

>>23472624
Argentina has a history of turning socialist (or "Peronist") and defaulting. Multiple examples. They just cannot help themselves... They love poverty too much

>>23471853
Start making money somewhere else, you are not a prisoner over there are you?

>>23472631
Either way, shylock Trump is poised to rape them with liberty, regardless of if their peso folds or not

>>23472851
I like it here unironically. The taxes are a minus but nothing is perfect

What's the precious metals equivalent of a nocoiner? I need something catchy to troll /biz/ with.

>>23472624
"The meek inherit the earth but not its mineral rights."
JP Getty said that.

>>23472929
Seconding this

would beating my neighbour's loud autistic daughter be bullish or bearish?

>>23473892
Is she hot?

>>23471853
Bro wtf are those tax rates. Literally a hell hole investment wise. Don't you have like a tax free/low tax retirement account, or is that the account when you only get taxed if you withdraw?

>>23471882
You're right on that, Better to be born in Finland, than Somalia or Macedonia.

>>23474406
yep only got the delayed tax account, or a "stock savings account".

I may have a debuff where I lose 1/3 of every dollar I make but I'll just make up for that in more money

>>23474416
Yeah an you probably make like 40-50k a year, compared to my poor ass making like 6-7k. You're right about winning the lottery. I probably won the lottery being born here i just didn't hit the jackpot.

>>23474356
no, she looks about 6 and walks with stiff legs

>>23474431
I mean if you beat her, you will do 20y in prison, so probably not worth it...

>>23474423
before tax I make like €32-35k a year. After the ~20-24% income tax (depends on how much I gross) I make about €28k on average. Could make more if I worked myself to the bone at the warehouse, or if I took the night shift. But I'm lazy admittedly.

According to my bank's handy income/expenses accounting, my essentials are between €15k to €18k a year, and I spend between €3k to €7k a year on leisure. Although the essentials includes all groceries so I would think accounting for any snacks or sweets or the like would probably move some hundreds of euros to the former from the latter. So anyways I can usually save or invest about €7-10k a year. Had I not started to invest in a bear market I wouldn't have had so much capital to enjoy the gains in the past two years.

>>23474423
>>23474472
I actually probably make closer to €30k on average nowadays thanks to pay hikes negotiated by our labor union (not a member lol)

>>23474472
>€32-35k
meant €42-45k

>>23474423
You were almost a Montenegrin. Then you wouldn't have to worry about working at all

>https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/ice-arrests-illegal-alien-serving-local-police-officer-suburban-chicago
>Be Montenegrin
>Come to America
>Get a job
>Get deported
He rebelled against his blood and flew too close to the sun

>>23472929
Anyone who doesnt own an aputannia deserves degradement

Where is anon who bought SLB earlier this year, like about March. Curious about the performance. Several of the oil field services companies declined. What's expected the rest of the year and 2026?

>>23475225
Mine is MIA. Pretty sure it was stolen by swat

Man, this interview from 2023 is almost surreal in retrospect
https://youtu.be/QdnmQ2CsYzo?si=zUH_ZtHi0wlPuVPh

>>23476005
*2024

>>23474472
>>23474488
Yeah that's really good if you ask me. I make like 6=7k a year and yeah... To be honest there's much better out there, but it is what it is. I literally ate porridge (with water) and cornmeal (with water) to save enough investment capital.
>>23474644
>You were almost a Montenegrin.
I am part Montenegrin. Great grandmother was from Montenegro.

>>23474472
94k (65k past tax + pension tax relief so around 67k) bong pennies last year.
Tradie meme is real gents.
Can't praise bong ISA accounts enough - 20 k each year max contribution and tax free gains from w/e you dump that sum into.
Got burned to much by leverage in past to try it tho. Slow and steady, no need to rush it!

>>23476310
>20 k each year max contribution and tax free gains
You have it good there man. That's amazing.

Your prediction for tomorrow?
Gold down? Gold crabbing? Gold up?

>>23476418
Down we go, maybe one more leg up into a multi year top. Hate to say it, but It's an honest opinion.

>>23476425
>GOVTS HAVE SOLVED THEIR ISSUES WITH DEBTS
I bet you would make a great political fiction writer

>>23476175
>I literally ate porridge (with water) and cornmeal (with water) to save enough investment capital.
jeez... That's rough. How much are you able to save per year when accounting for expenses? I'm sure your frugality will be rewarded.

>>23476310
wow that's good. Bongbucks are also worth a lot in dollar terms too. How are your annual expenses? I assume saving £20k a year for the ISA is a breeze when you make £67k after tax. Good reminder for me that there's always somebody out there who has it better — or worse — than me

>>23476418
Correction to continue at least for the next week for sure.

>>23476175
Kasza FTW

>>23476511
I can save like ~50% 3-4k.

>>23476511
>I'm sure your frugality will be rewarded.
Oh it will If i continue doing what I'm doing I'll hit 6 figs in 2/3 years.

>>23476574
I used to buy (still do sometimes) Serbian cornmeal for like Є0.29 per 500g, i would put a some butter while it's hot and a little brined cheese on top. Pretty good shit not gonna lie. The whole meal is like less than one Є.

>>23476652
I'm a buckwheat aficionado myself. Mixing it with lentils, rice, and other types of kasza.

>>23476964
Kek 1.3kg of flower. Literally two loafs of bread, but hey at least you get a 12 pack of ciggies, that's a good way to keep the hunger at bay.

metals FUD everywhere
>they're afraid

>>23477113
BTC is literally worthless, the only crypto with any value is Monero, at least it's used in black markets.

>>23477113
let the sentiment reset wash over. It will take another week or two. We got really exuberant last week but fear is quick to remind people of its existence

>>23477113
I really wonder
I dont really care about the bitcoin vs gold discussion, they can go up togetjer for all I care

>>23477075
In reality cigs and vodka were currency used for trading for stuff. Also most people had relatives in villages who were doing faring stuff and were supplied by them. The biggest issue were stuff like clothing or building materials.

>>23476519
As with everything there is always price to pay.
3 or more standbys a week etc. it's punishing but rewarding.
expenses usually around 110 bongs a week or so + 750 rent a month so very tame.

But, I have a knack for fast cars, and I drowned a LOT of money in servicing them sadly.

Last year bought Mustang and engine packed up after 4k miles of use (9k miles on clock when purchased) So yeah, just when you think you had it good - life finds a way to screw you over.

>>23471868
Uh yea they were fucked with since Harper was promising to maintain the $10k TFSA contributions past 2015, whereas Trudeau immediately cut them down to $6k before bringing them back up to $7k or whatever post 2020.

Imagine all the gains and losses that could’ve been realized with that extra TFsA room..

The only thing that sucks is that most other countries don’t observe the tax free status, so if you spend more than 183 days outside of Canada, your TFSA gains will get taxed as regular income in EU and other places. I’m having to cut 2026/27 between Canada and Portugal (that was my flag the past few /cmmg’s/) because once the bull run is more matured and indivest, I don’t wanna pay 100s of ks into the EU shitfest.

>>23477253
>750 rent a month
ouch, couldn't be me

>>23477253
>expenses usually around 110 bongs a week or so + 750 rent a month so very tame.
I thought there was a lot of inflation going on in the UK in recent years? What have people been complaining about?

>>23477688
Being single helps, but yeah, depends on where you shop and how extravagant of a lifestyle you conduct.

Definately fast food prices shot up.

1 litre of Diesel is about 1 pound 35 pence and petrol around 1.25 or so at the moment on average.

>>23477344
Believe it or not I had it 400 quid till 2021 but landlord had to sell the house. How good I had it back then...

>>23477718
fast food prices have risen over here too. Not really worth eating McDonald's anymore, it used to be cheap slop and now it's just slop.

Fuel is cheap right now but that's because oil is in the shitter. You guys clearly have much less tax on fuel since over here diesel is like €1.5/l, gasoline is around €1.7/l

>>23477744
Its slop that now costs the same amount as a low-medium end restaurant. If you want something cheap it seems better to buy one of those prepaid sandwiches at the grocery store.

>>23477688
electricity, beef and American-owned services the worst culprits.

>https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8xg1jve73o
Columbia losing its gibs. They're building an economic block down there, like they did in SEA and the ME
>Trump said because the US offers "large scale payments and subsidies" and Petro "does nothing" to stop the drug production, the US will no longer offer "payment or subsidies" to Colombia. According to a government website, the US provided over $740m (£551m) in aid to Colombia in 2023. It is unclear if all of that aid will stop, or when.

>In September, for the first time since 1996, the US declared that Colombia had failed to uphold its drug trafficking promises, and is ineligible for aid as defined in the Foreign Assistance Act. But the state department included a waiver that allowed Colombia to continue to receive aid.

>But following Petro's recent accusation of Americans committing "murder", Trump has escalated matters and says he will halt aid.

>Under Petro, cocaine production has reached a record-level and the country has failed to reach its coca eradication goals, the state department said in September.

>>23478064
Does this mean its okay to buy ecopetrol if they plan on removing Petro? Or is siphoning off the above ground pipelines to make gasoline in the jungle too crucial to the cocaine industry and the marxist guerrillas too much of a hassle and risk?

>>23478068
Well, that's depends if the sakler family can come up with a synthetic cocaine before monsonto genetically engineers the plant to be grown here

>>23478083
A free >20% dividend yield would be nice...

>>23477905
>prepaid sandwiches
Umm... wut?

>>23478101
typo made to put premaid.

>>23478103
I'm not touching a sandwich until after my maid has finished making it

Hilarious opening so far

>>23478337
What's happening?

9 min til open......

There is no liquidity lmao.

>>23478434
Ya

the gold mining ETF i was gonna buy is down 7.6% right after open. buy the dip or is it over....

>>23478503
Buy the dip fr

>>23478503
if I get that sale in the morning bro I'll buy with both hands, and post my buys!

>>23478503
my all-in dry powderless ass just scraped up $3,242 burger bux and transferred them to my Japan WAGMI broker account, eyeing around 350 more shares of certain gold stonk if a sale arrives before assays drop

Is it the rise of gold or the dip in US dollar that we are cheering?

>>23478603
both

>>23478503
It's over. No more fiscal irresponsibility and no more deficit spending. Since today all budgets are balanced.

>>23478709
i'm retarded and need reassurance. it's down 8% now so think i'll wait until the afternoon to see if it drops any further before biting the bullet.

>>23478720
BTW are you observing GreenX Metals? If you are into copper explorers with actual drills company don't have to pay for.

Speaking of GreenX Metals:
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/GRX/03010144.pdf

*drops mic*

>>23478739
nope, vaneck gold miners

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/gdx?src=search-all

plebs on biz keep letting cmmg die over there

>>23478802
it's a too early phase of the market. It's getting squeezed already by a limited groups while main street stares frozen like a deer in headlights doing nothing.

>>23477334
>Imagine all the gains and losses that could’ve been realized with that extra TFsA room..
I mean it's already over 100k now. That's quite a bit of money to try to make it with and not have to pay taxes on your gains

>>23478720
Wait until next week.

Nice volatility, KEK

>>23479983
i didn't even buy. i pussied out and bought more PMGOLD (gold ETF)

>>23481294
So, you bought and didn't buy at the same time?

RIP Aussie broe 1666-2137, he broke the space-time continuum by not buying and buying at the same time and get killed by continuum integrity police for his violation of laws of physics.

>>23481305
i didn't buy GDX as i was intending to

ESL

LUCIFER RISING

John Borshoff kicked out of Deep Yellow effective immediately after a year of delaying FID on Tumas due to low uranium prices. Board maybe doesn't share his patience.

Urenco doubling their enrichment capacity in the Netherlands. Insecurity over Russian supply still a bottleneck.

>>23482002
If your uranium project isn't feasible at $80/lb it's not worth investing in

CANDLE SANDWICH FORMATION

>>23482032
One gram of 235 is 20 billion calories. So if you eat just that much, you'll never have to pay for food again.

>>23482032
The greenfields generally aren't. Current prices have incentivised restarts and some new ISR but most new mines aren't getting built with $60 floor prices in contracts. Only the huge high grade Athabasca projects and Dasa are going to provide an attractive return on investment (on a spreadsheet if not reality). And there's not enough of those to meet existing uranium demand let alone plans for growth.

Nice minor dump at open, very traditional

>>23464596 (OP)
Wow Bayhorsie bros are going to make it! We're officially a rare earths company now.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1934-tsx-venture/bhs/189661-bayhorse-silver-xrf-analysis-of-bayhorse-silver-mine-flotation-concentrate-samples-shows-significant-contained-silver-copper-antimony-zinc.html

gold is not that far from ATH after recovery
mainstreet still asleep on miners

The jew whipped some weakness into me on Friday. Now I took a look if I should sell something, but I just can't find anything. It would just be yet another swing aka gambling. Hecla maybe, but I think I will just wait to the next earnings. The explorers are also lined up to release drills.

>>23483269
Would you buy Hycroft now after they became denbd free

>>23483269
sometimes the best move is to wait. It's usually the hardest thing to do.

>>23483280
I just buy and hold, sell only small percentages of holdings if I see some cheapies

>>23483274
I remember looking at this shitco 6 months ago. Id did seem like an interesting lottery ticket but why would it not be a shitco anymore?

>>23483283
I have no idea what shitty you see in that company so I cannot answer that question for you

>>23483284
Oh yes I found out about them from this. https://hycroftmining.com/_resources/news/nr-20250114.pdf
But back then they were still heavily in debt waiting for someone to come rescue them.
Now tell me how much will it cost to get that stone quarry into production and what will the production numbers be like then?

>>23483274
I became interested yesterday, big enough so no OTC fees either

>>23483312
At this phase they are preparing pre feasibility study

Shellco shitco broes, we just can't stop winning.

>>23483336
Yes I see and what kind of numbers do you think will come out of it? Or are you investing just because of the big resource and daddy Sprott being invested?

>>23483318
he really needs to retire

>>23483346
-1. It went cheap as fuck few years ago so I started buying. (I won't be surprised if my average price per share is lower than Sprott's)
0. Huge property
1. Rosebud
2. Awesome drills that came in meantime
3. It seems to be attractive to murricans now
4. I can wait few more years with cash I parked in it.

But I don't hold an insane percentage of portfolio in this.

>>23483408
ah and reserves of material they have and can extract minerals from are also decent

Gdx SIL outperforming me again

Isn't hycroft the latest in a series of companies cycling into a property with serious, unresolved metallurgic issues, or am I thinking of some other property?

AG only up .7% after Fridays washout.

>>23483523
let me guess. Hard rock light REEs and lithium?

>>23483408

>In July 2019, Hycroft completed the Hycroft Technical Report, a third-party feasibility study supporting its multi-year developed proprietary sulfide oxidation and leach process along with M3 Engineering and incorporating resources modeled by SRK Consulting (Reno, NV). Results of the feasibility study were robust indicating a projected life-of-mine (“LOM”) net present value (“NPV”) of $2.1 billion (at a 5% discount rate), a LOM after-tax internal rate of return (“IRR”) of 147.5%, and a payback period of 2.6 years. The Hycroft Mine was restarted in 2019 to demonstrate this proprietary process on a commercial scale and, to date, has proven successful. Based on the success of initial operations and the robust feasibility study, Hycroft began implementing the long-term mine plan with the start of construction in April 2020 of the first phase of a large leach pad capable of processing the resource base with more than 30 years of mine life. The funds received from this transaction allow HYMC to construct the new leach pad, expand its existing mining fleet (via rental contracts) and increase production rates

I did not yet find the old feasibility study but gold price in then was about 1300-1500$. And in the years they were producing gold peaked at about 2000$.

>Gold production for the year ended December 31, 2021, of 55,668 ounces exceeded the high end of the guidance range as the process team continued to improve equipment, process control and costs. Silver production of 355,967 ounces was approximately 20% below guidance due to slower than planned leach kinetics. Processing of ore on leach pads is currently planned to proceed through the second quarter of 2022.

And they did not even mention in the release how much they were losing money. So what went wrong and why will they not repeat?
Is the same management still there?

>>23483529
>“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them," Trump told reporters.

>>23483051
Trump strategic investment incoming

>>23483559
>The ore sorter is crucial to national security

>>23483529
Hey, as long as it pumps our bags?

Need SVM to get some luv

>>23483543
They will end up in rockets and bombs bud, stockpiles dwindling down thx to greatest ally

>>23483542
With a quick calculation from year 2021 results their costs were about 2600$ per ounce

>>23483464
It bankrupted Allied Nevada.

>>23483542
they were mining rather low grade stuff
they had a lot of debt from previous company operating there until 2020 which went bankrupt

>>23483580
which is a pretty much useless info by now

Commodity investors are going to get rinsed on rare earths just like they did lithium. The explicit aim is to deliberately oversupply the market to deny China its strategic advantage. When government support dries up China will outcompete the majority of the new startups like they were doing before. If government support continues indefinitely then margins will disappear in a race to the bottom and no one makes any money.

>>23483617
I mean did they really get rinsed on lithium? The tier one deposits are like x20 since 2015...

Are we actually going to fucking hit a new ATH in gold today after that pullback?
This market is so resilient. All the dips get bought quickly.

>>23483801
well, there are few hours left so we will see
stonks are lagging tho

>>23483702
some of the companies are still in the process of going bankrupt and ruining investors, you're right

>>23483877
why so passive aggressive, did anyone pee into your tea today?

>>23483617
Clf up 20% today on REE mining announcement

>>23484063
turns out capital loves unsustainable government handouts

Don't worry, all that capital that pumped Tesla and NVIDIA has to go somewhere.

Back to GreenX Metals

Just from historic estimates of amount of copper in Tannenberg area times current copper prices is over 8 billions US pesos

divide that amount of existing shares gives you even 25-29 US pesos per share depending what copper price from recent period you want to use (I rather think there is some chance to see copper price higher in years to come).

and that from historic estimates based on outdated model of Kupferschiefer which takes in account only small section which is of grade over 2 and half percent copper.

and that's not taking in account reward in arbitration or any deposits potential in Greenland.

current share price is about 0,5 US peso

Any questions why I am interested in that stock?

>>23483877
I talking about the Tier one, best of the best deposits, shits not going bankrupt they are literally x20 since 2015.

>>23484159
Gibs helped ofc.

>>23482061
What’s your GLO PT if they get the bank loan?

>>23486228
Anything above C$1.30 (2x my avg.) I start trimming as the position is way too large for me. It could go a lot higher very quickly if there's an announcement of a US development bank loan so hopefully I'm away from my computer that day. Still think a JV on predatory terms is most likely. Their last cap raise was oversubscribed which suggests a shift in sentiment, the previous one was under.

I want out before they have to start actually exporting uranium.

>>23486332
Yea 1.30 seems like a consensus target from what I’ve seen around. Do you think the exploration story isn’t compelling, or is the jurisdictional risk just too much that you just need to get out at a 2x?

UUUU Donald project in Australia declared essential and will be backed by their government with a Aus $80M loan

Bolivia left wing government voted out.

They are building an economic block.

>>23487242
>Monroe Doctrine 2, Electric Donaldaloo

>>23483617
The only issue is Western hard rock projects can only flood the market with more light REEs. China's is having access to heavy REEs from ionic clays in Southern China, Myanmar and Laos. The export restrictions only extend to the heavy REEs (DyTb most prominently) and no matter how much Trump pumps and subsidizes hard rock REE projects, the fundamental geological reality is that those projects are extremely low on those all-important heavy REEs. There are a few good heavy REE projects in Brazil (Brazilian Rare Earths and Aclara) but that's about it as far as excess heavy REE supply goes

Light REEs will absolutely be extremely oversupplied though, expect NdPr prices to gigadump.

>>23484392
>divide that amount of existing shares gives you even 25-29 US pesos per share
that's not how you value projects btw

>>23487368
that's the only metrics you can value with infomations you have btw

of course reserves are most likely much bigger as the model used is outdated for several decades

>>23488319
that's never a credible valuation metric btw

also you can still estimate a rough DCF if you want, just estimate a realistic hypothetical project based on your own hypothetical reserve estimate.

>>23488331
you are kidding, right?

the only realistic estimate is "several times bigger if we take in account all factors like known models of K-r, potential for new findings there, arbitrage award, stuff in Greenland".

There is no way to estimate it any more precise than that.

>>23488339
costs of building mine(s) in that are of Germany are pretty much ,ajority of infrastructure spending that would be needed as infrastructure is already there. But you cannot estimate them as you have no idea how big it would have to be and where exactly placed.

Costs in Greenland are at this point unknown so you cannot even imagine what number you have to substract.

Costs of production are even more fantastical fantasy you have to fantasize at this stage.

>>23488339
>he doesn't know how to do DCF analysis

>>23488355
What DCF analysis? On this stage? Is that some sort of hermetic Finnish humour?

>>23488361
companies do PEA level studies without reserve estimates and real life price quotes for long lead items contractor services, and often with only baseline metallurgical etc. studies.

If they can do it, why can't you?

LINE GO DOWN
IT'S OVER

>>23488421
Because I have better usage for time than doing sci-fi.

>>23488434
Over the rainbow and far away

>>23488455
like doing valueless in situ valuations?

How cooked are we today?

>>23488456
you are dumber than I assumed

>>23488484
between oreo and biscuit

>>23488495
>I'm too dumb to do DCF so please hear out my in situ per share valuation instead

Its over (its not earnings come this week)

Next week*

>>23488513
Thanks for proving my point, Korhonen

>>23488646
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaAAAA!!!!!

I aee this as a consolidation before they pump when they release their earnings

>>23487035
It's purely a sizing issue. I'm massively overweight GLO specifically for the pre-financing discount, post-financing I have to reduce in-line with other value uranium stocks.

>>23488666
Ave Satan

>>23488731
Got Denison and NextGen?

>>23488743
I've sold down Denison a lot but I still own it. A lot of success is priced in there now, and ISR at that depth is a unique risk.

NexGen is my third largest uranium position after GLO and physical (YCA), but much smaller than both. The exploration potential there is outrageous and I expect minority stakes in Rook 1 to be sold off after permits are acquired next year.

i alyaws wanted to own my own chest of gold

why is it so pricy

>>23488663
it's okay to admit it Wojtek

Yo, what triggered the PMs dump?

Guys...

I...

I think...

I-I think I'm getting bullish natgas.

Double top
not looking good...

>>23488932
exhale and open window asap

>>23488930
london filled its vaults, no panic buying any more

>>23488930
Trump promised sellers free footjobs for the rest of the year if they sell.

AT-retards are probably collectively hallucinating a double top pattern and feel obligated to sell because shapes in their heads told them to do so

>>23488930
Greed. Time for a slap on the wrists for any overleveraged longs. Next week is a better time to buy than this week.

>>23489111
Clf is completing the "breeching whale" formation this morning

>>23489156
I remember clf being a meme on /biz/ smg in 2021

Hilarious sellof in miners DESU. I bought some shares.

>>23488932
I said this last week. The bottom is in on o&g. Find divvy plays in blue chips right fucking now

metals going to zero

>>23489180
I hope so, I would hoard them en mase when they reach that level. If they go negative I would billionquple.

The miners are trying to find my non existant stop loss

And here we go, my folio started growing after dump.

Happy that im finally outperforming gdx lol

Thanks to our frens the banksters giving us this sale today I just made it to 34,000 Snowline shares. Now completely broke and will probably have to do a 3 day fast until Friday

>>23489171
Oil still probably finding a bottom. I would expect a bottom next year. Natgas will remain extremely volatile so not calling any bottoms there, but I'm starting to see light at the end of the decade+ structural oversupply in the USA now that byproduct gas growth from liquids production is slowing down and data center + LNG demand are converging through the rest of the '20s. Canada looks still structurally oversupplied through at least 2030, there's a lot of byproduct gas and even dry gas coming online to more than meet demand there

I have already started to build o&g positions.

Now it was just so clear that we are gigadumping that I had to swing. I will also take this chance to move some balance off from ARTG to BTO. ARTG is still at 100% margin requirement.
>inb4 we will launch to orbit tomorrow.

>>23489399
I would wait on the buy timing more but otherwise not a bad idea to reduce margin that way. Next week will be better, this week the market will flush out the weakest and most leveraged hands. Max fear maybe today or tomorrow. Today definitely feels like blood on the streets, I'm happy I took off some money last Friday. Will be looking to redeploy some in metals next week or late this week probably. Mostly just stayed long though.

Hoping to cop some more BRVO cheapies, maybe a good reentry to CHN.AX. I like PGMs right now. Maybe I'll add to some gold positions if I find any good buys on stuff I already have.

It would be commedy gold all over social media if gold starts moving 200+ US pesos a day

Shellco shitco broes shall inherit the earth.

>>23489521
>my shares are OTC traded so they're not REALLY down even though the more liquid exchange listed shares are down -20% today

>>23489527
>OTC
Try again, Pekka. Shellco shitco capital is the Venture.
>small float, illiquidity + high vega = downside protection
Again, share structure matters. When insiders and 10%+ holders control >50% of the company at a cost close to yours, you don't worry so much about 100k share blocks being dumped into the bid.
I've been accumulating these niggers in my cash account for three years, and now they're waking up. No assets, no plans--just clean shells on the Venture.

>>23489555
shortbro that you?

Fucking Bloodbath

>>23489595
I call it "a buying opportunity"

>>23489595
not even looking at my pf today. I'll look again in a few days.

>>23489570
Yeah.

>>23488932
$CRK

>>23489801
I did buy some Cumsock among a few others

Did they force Argentina to liquidate their gold reserves? Is that why the US was buying their currency?

>>23489817
no, the Trump admin has a weak dollar policy so they love to dump dollars whenever they get an excuse.

Colombia overturned the conviction of their former president. With Monroe 2, electric donaldaloo would a conservative gov't in Colombia mean good for EC?

Surely amazing quarterly results on earnings can turn this around? right?

>>23490202
sure just wait until next week after overleveraged gamblers have been beheemed first

BLOOD IN THE STREETS

>>23490491
we are forsaken

>>23490491
>NVIDIA -0,8%
>blood in the street
aha

See who is in the picture x.com/GreenxMetals/status/1980290651892617567

>>23490736
old balding man #1
old balding man #2
old balding man #3
...and who could forget old balding man #4!

what a brutal week

>>23490830
week? Week barely started

Guess who is bullish on prices
https://youtu.be/PfijO4uZfKA

>Gold goes up 170%
>Juniors exploration/development companies go up 150% before shitting the bed.
Bro, weren't this shitcos with million Oz in the ground supposed to go x10 what gold did? Am I missing something? Why isn't SOLG x10? Fuck this shit man... The major producers had a bigger leg then the developers/juniors... Should have just went all in AEM and LUG instead of "diversifying" into juniors for "higher gains". Like yeah I made 100% on the juniors, but I was expecting more honestly... Are we just early or the juniors are beyond fucked?

LIKE WHERE THE FUCK ARE THE x10 JUNIORS GOLD WENT FROM 1500 to 2000 during the coof and now it's up fucking 170% HELLO????? They x10 on a 50% move back in 2020? And the just pull a dead cat leg in 2025 when gold is up 170%? Am I fucking retarded are the juniors only based on fucking liquidity or what the fuck am I missing here? Why isn't SOLG x10 why isn't SA x10. Why aren't companies with Millions of OZ in the ground x10?

>>23491223
>>23491199
The answer is that we are still early.

>>23490853
I'm down a big 5 figures since the peak last Wednesday.

>>23491223
>Why isn't SOLG x10
you think it actually gets built?

>>23491199
>>23491223
keep buying, WAGMI will come

>>23491379
It should get built? The project is economical. Fruta del Norte did get built.

>>23488855
Just buy silver