>1941
>The Attack on Pearl Harbor goes perfectly
>2 aircraft carriers sunk, dozens of American ships utterly destroyed or damaged beyond repair, thousands of sailors dead, the harbor rendered completely inoperable
Assuming the best possible luck on the part of the Japanese, does this actually affect the war?

>>17857250 (OP)
It might prolong it. Even if the Japanese had destroyed every single US navy vessel, US would have had a larger navy in 1944. That's how massive the difference between the industrial potential of the two countries was.

nope pointless delay

doesn't really affect US manufacturing capability

>>17857250 (OP)
bumpo

It doesn't fix the underlying problem: that the attack only served to incense the Americans and provoke them to war, not to intimidate them. America's industrial capacity was such that even a total destruction of Pearl Harbor and its military assets would not materially inconvenience the United States for very long, if at all. Replacing the fleet during peacetime, when the expense would be bitched about in budgetary meetings and criticized in the press, would take years. Replacing the fleet while virtually the entire American people are baying for blood, and are lining up to work in the factories and join the military for the sole purpose of destroying Japan, would take weeks.

>>17858499
How many fleets do you think america would have to lose before they surrender? Like what if japan wipes out the US fleet at pearl harbor then wipes out the entire US fleet at the battle of Midway, at this point you're already in a alt-his scenario but imagine there's then an attempt to invade hawaii and America sends the rest of their fleet and that gets wiped out too, then imagine they rebuild it on the east coast, it's 2-3 times as big as the Japanese fleet, they send it to the pacific and it gets wiped out with minimal japanese casualties, at what point does the US just give up?

Depends on whether the Japanese also strike a full score at Midway. Their while strategy relied on the "decisive battle" (forgot the japanese word) doctrine which would make the enemy entertain a potential concessions to Japanese ambitions to avoid getting entangled in a costly war.
The Japanese maintained this strategy even into 1945, that an American offensive could be stopped and consequently costly enough to accept somewhat favorable terms.

>>17857250 (OP)
No, it doesn't change anything because the Japs still don't have any way to force the US into any kind of agreement, America just starts pumping out ships and wins after a slightly longer conflict.

What did the US navy do in 1942 that was meaningful?
>Doolittle Raid
>Coral Sea
>Midway
Even if the Kido Butai survives 1942 intact it'll get blasted to bits in 1943 when the Essex carriers start getting added to the game. Maybe Japan can take Port Moresby or even land on Northern Australia but it's not like that threatens Australia. If anything that further weakens Japan.

>>17858499
>Replacing the fleet during peacetime, when the expense would be bitched about in budgetary meetings and criticized in the press, would take years. Replacing the fleet while virtually the entire American people are baying for blood, and are lining up to work in the factories and join the military for the sole purpose of destroying Japan, would take weeks.
Except the funding to replace the fleet was already approved years ago and many of the ships were already in construction. America didn't get provoked into war. They were already in the war, just unofficially.

maybe it would make it longer, American industrial supremacy was something else

>>17859240
midway was undoubtedly the foot in the door and the first step of the complete collapse of the japang empire

>>17859262
>midway was undoubtedly the foot in the door and the first step of the complete collapse of the japang empire
Yeah but if it doesn't happen, then so what? Nothing major changes and then in 1943 another Midway happens but this time with the Essex carriers devastating the KB, possibly all 6 instead of just the oldest 4.

>>17858499
>>17858533
>>17859244
The point that anon was making is that from a Japanese perspective, the point of Pearl Harbor was to strike such a sudden and decisive blow that the US would be forced to make concessions/terms, and from an American perspective there was never any chance that was going to happen.

The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was a fundamentally flawed misunderstanding of American thinking and mindset by the Japanese.

In truth the Japanese "lost" they moment they decided to set themselves on a collision course with US spheres of influence in the Pacific.

>>17859296
>The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was a fundamentally flawed misunderstanding of American thinking and mindset by the Japanese.
I don't think it was flawed at all. They simply had no cards in the table and could only hope to fuck shit up as hard as possible and pray that somehow things will work out, even if they were to sit in their island America would attack them.
>the Japanese "lost" they moment they decided to set themselves on a collision course with US spheres of influence in the Pacific.
So all the way back around 1900-1910? I would say that's the other way around though, with the US wanting to take China all for itself, even if not for economic gain then for petty politicking in the homeland.

>>17859324
it would have been much harder to convince the American public to attack Japan if they would have ignored Pearl Harbor

>>17859296
>The point that anon was making is that from a Japanese perspective, the point of Pearl Harbor was to strike such a sudden and decisive blow that the US would be forced to make concessions/terms, and from an American perspective there was never any chance that was going to happen.
No you retard, the point anon aka you made was that Pearl Harbor brought US into the war by making it angry, which directly led to the US naval armament efforts being turned up 100%. Except that is a retarded fucking point because it's completely historically wrong.

>>17859324
>They simply had no cards in the table
I guess my point is, that the Japanese largely did not understand that they had no cards. Most of the Japanese high command legitimately thought Pearl Harbor would actually force the US to come to the negotiating table, or get them to back off from their plans in the Pacific. They were high on their own propaganda and history of victory over the last half century and were blinded to the fact that the US was a beast they simply could not beat.

>So all the way back around 1900-1910?
Probably even earlier. The Meiji restoration basically created a situation in which the Japanese military was always going to eventually wind up running the country and they collectively learned the wrong lessons from the Russo-Japanese conflict and First Japanese-Cino war.
>I would say that's the other way around though
That's fair, the US was actively pushing for more influence in the Pacific since the late 19th century. But it wasn't inevitable that Japan and the US had to clash. It was only made inevitable when Japan decided it wanted to be an imperial power in a region where much larger imperial powers were already playing.

>>17859329
There is a fair body of evidence that the US basically allowed Pearl Harbor to happen for that very reason.

>>17857250 (OP)

>>17859344
>There is a fair body of evidence that the US basically allowed Pearl Harbor to happen for that very reason.
And it worked.

>>17859344
You're slightly wrong. The Japanese knew that the US would retaliate after Pearl Harbour. That's why the attack was also coordinated with capturing the Philippines and key US bases such as Guam and Wake.

The Japanese strategy to win the war was based on "Kantai Kessen", which is how they won against the far superior Russian empire a few decades earlier.
Kantai Kessen means to win the war by decisive battle. The Japanese would wait for the US offensive and then defeat thst fleet in a major decisive battle. It would be Pearl Harbour x2, where USA would have their navy temporarily knocked out twice. Midway was supposed to have been that battle.

The Japanese never fooled themselves that the US was an unstoppable industrial juggernaut that would win any war if they really slammed on it, but the rationale was that USA simply wouldn't go all in, that they would ultimately concede to Japanese ambitions in Asia because the price would be too heavy. The irony is that by attacking the US directly, it did give FDR a blank cheque to go all in on the war.

The Japanese never abandoned their belief in 'Kantai Kessen' even as the war was hopelessly lost. Even in mid-1945 they were holding out with the belief that a decisive battle would be so costly that it would force USA to make concessions.

Everything else you write is correct, the military was delusional in their own hubris of tactical superiority, and thr Japanese civil government inability to prevent the military from getting its way.
Meanwhile the emperor was busy studying butterflies than to involve himself in the appearing Armageddon.

>>17859344
>>17859351
>There is a fair body of evidence that the US basically allowed Pearl Harbor to happen for that very reason.

Eh, this is one of those perennial conspiracies like 9/11 truthers. People forget that the sort of people who climb high in politics are the sort of people who are very opportunistic. Did FDR use the public outrage from Pearl Harbor to push for what he wanted? Sure. Did he know about it in advance and let it happen? Much bigger claim

>>17859453
Just let them kerp pusbibg oil embsrgos and stave the country to death bro.

Y-yeah dont fight back goy thats le bad.

Nah it was karma..lol

>>17859773
If Japan didn't want the oil embargo they shouldn't have sent troops to French Indochina. They knew the cause and effect of their actions but they still went through with it.

>>17859250
war crime

>>17859296
They had a chance to win the war politically by just not directly attacking the US. That could have been enough to keep Congress in its default state of doing nothing. Can still attack Malaya and Indonesia if you need to just leave the US alone and pray

>>17861976
If I remember correctly, the US told Japan that if they attack British/Dutch holdings, USA would intervene, tho I could be wrong.

In any case, when the Japanese recieved the 'Hull note', they interpreted it as an ultimatum that Japan must withdraw all forces and sign non-aggression with the French, Dutch, Thai, Chinese and British.

With hindsight it would probably have been better to simply strike the colonies only, and then wait and see how the US responds, however if the US does intervene, and Philippines is still in American hands, it would immediately break and isolate to Japanese empire completely. Phillipines was the real mortal threat in case USA and Japan should ever fight, and had to be neutralized immediately.

>>17859453
Japan won against the Russians because they paid a priest to lead a bunch of Christians to the capitol to essentially commit suicide

These same people funded the nation of Islam in the US

>>17862066
Early members of the nation of Islam are recorded as telling their lambs that the Japanese were coming to save them from the white man in giant flying aircraft carriers and were going to blow all the white people up

>>17862025
If the United States responds by declaring war Japan will lose no matter what. The Philippines are a red herring. I think it's down to cultural factors; some hothead said it would be a good idea to attack Pearl Harbor and no one wanted to disturb the wa by telling him to shut up

>>17859754
>Did FDR use the public outrage from Pearl Harbor to push for what he wanted? Sure. Did he know about it in advance and let it happen? Much bigger claim
that is all small fry
the FDR used carriers to strike pearl harbor and blame japan

>>17862145
japanese leadership openly questioned the wisdom of attacking america, some guy who had been there literally told them not to do it because americans are brave, but obviously he was ignored. japanese are inherently narcissistic and have a massive chip on their shoulders, plus they are delusional since they have little-to-no contact with the outside world and have no idea what goes on outside japan. under these conditions, it is understandable that they attacked america; they literally didn't know what would happen and just assumed america would bow to the mighty yamato. notice how the opposition to the plan came from a guy who had actually left japan i.e. someone who wasn't completely corked out of his mind on japang propaganda.

Wouldn't really matter. America had 100 aircraft carriers in 1945. And even if Japan kept winning every naval battle, their transport fleet would still get slaughtered by the submarine campaign.

>>17862145
>some hothead said it would be a good idea to attack Pearl Harbor and no one wanted to disturb the wa by telling him to shut up
Pretty much. Some hotheads started attacking China and instead of telling them to stop, the government got roped into going to war.
But it wasn't just about not wanting to rock the boat, junior officers were going around murdering anyone that wasn't gong ho about war.
It was a weird time in Japan.

>>17862242
>It was a weird time in Japan

I mean it's the same people who ordered mass-suicide of their own men, or who executed those who surrendered, all because of their warrior ideological conviction.

Americans being presented images of mere privates being ritualistic beheaded was something else. Truman did not face a lot of criticism by the people at the time for dropping the bombs

>>17859296
No. the japanese high command thought they were going to get assblasted by the US, and that pearl harbor was just the best of a terrible situation. Japanese politicians and war planners did not think japan had a chance.really.

>>17862527
They shouldn't have invaded Indochina then