>>17901697The "unconditional surrender" became kind of a joke because the Japanese high command pretty much only signed it after the Americans agreed to leave the Emperor alone, i.e. it already wasn't actually unconditional. The Americans already didn't want to do that nor they wanted a land invasion, while Japan already wanted peace, but there was debate inside the government on how much concessions to give (even the most hardline faction understood that they lost but hoped they could just go back to 1937 borders).
Then everyone in Japan freaked out when the USSR got involved because 1. they hoped Stalin would mediate a peace treaty between the allies 2. they didn't want Japan to get occupied and turned into a commie state. This was a far bigger factor in their surrender than the nukes.
So most likely they would have lasted a couple more months without the bombs, and maybe get somewhat better terms, eg. even less prosecution of war criminals etc. while still officially signing unconditional surrender.