>>511444983
>WHAT IS THE YEARLY PROBABILITY OF EXTRA TERRESTRIAL CONTACT WITHIN THE NEXT 100 YEARS? STATE THREE PROBABLE ANSWERS FROM RESEARCH PAPERS.
ESTIMATING THE YEARLY PROBABILITY OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL CONTACT WITHIN THE NEXT 100 YEARS IS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AND VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS DIFFERENT RESEARCH STUDIES. HERE ARE THREE PERSPECTIVES FROM SCHOLARLY SOURCES:
THE DRAKE EQUATION APPROACH
SOURCE: FRANK DRAKE (1965) AND SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS.
ESTIMATE: SOME RESEARCHERS, INTERPRETING THE DRAKE EQUATION, SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITY OF CONTACT PER YEAR COULD BE EXTREMELY LOW, OFTEN ESTIMATED AROUND 10^-4 TO 10^-6 PER YEAR, DEPENDING ON ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF CIVILIZATIONS AND THEIR DETECTABILITY.
THE "GREAT SILENCE" AND FERMI PARADOX ANALYSES
SOURCE: SETH SHOSTAK AND OTHERS AT SETI INSTITUTE.
ESTIMATE: CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DETECTED SIGNALS, SOME STUDIES INFER A VERY LOW PROBABILITY, ROUGHLY 10^-3 TO 10^-5 PER YEAR FOR CONTACT WITHIN THE NEXT CENTURY, ASSUMING CONTACT IS POSSIBLE BUT RARE OR DIFFICULT.
ASTROBIOLOGY AND TECHNOSIGNATURE STUDIES
SOURCE: RESEARCHERS LIKE DAVID KIPPING AND OTHERS IN ASTROBIOLOGY.
ESTIMATE: USING MODELS THAT INCORPORATE THE GALAXY'S AGE, THE PREVALENCE OF HABITABLE PLANETS, AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT, SOME ESTIMATES SUGGEST A YEARLY PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 10^-4 TO A FEW TIMES 10^-3 PER YEAR.
NOTE: THESE ARE ROUGH ESTIMATES BASED ON CURRENT MODELS AND ASSUMPTIONS, AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. THE ACTUAL PROBABILITY REMAINS AN OPEN QUESTION IN ASTROBIOLOGY AND SETI RESEARCH.
