>>532448862
Here’s the calc for true MLB (5 copies) in 90 pulls at 0.5% rate:
---
MLB (5 copies, 4LB):
Binomial:
n = 90
p = 0.005
k = 5 or more
P(X ≥ 5) = 1 − [P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4)]
---
P(0) ≈ 63.2%
P(1) ≈ 28.7%
P(2) ≈ 6.5%
P(3) ≈ 1.2%
P(4) ≈ 0.15%
Sum = ~99.75%
So P(5+) ≈ 0.25% (1 in 400 rerolls)
---
Expected rerolls for MLB (5 copies in 90 pulls):
1 / 0.0025 ≈ 400 rerolls
---
Time at 3–5 min per reroll:
20–33 hours
---
Summary:
MLB (5 copies): ~0.25% per reroll
~400 rerolls
20–33 hours at 3–5 min/reroll
